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What is Staking and What Factors Determines How Much we Bet? - Part 2
The Discretionary Methods in the Selection of the Stake This type of systems are those that rely on the intuition or experience that the bettor has to decide the amounts in which to bet. This is what most of the players do. Now, to do it well you have to follow a series of rules when acting. Developing intuition requires a time of training, trial and error, success and failure. Betting like this, can cost you a fortune until you develop this kind of skill, so it is frankly not recommended for everyone who has been in the world of betting for a short time. Knowing when a result is highly probable or complicated, it will be enough to take a look at the fees that are paid so we can see the probability. What is more complicated is to have a clear knowledge of the value based on intuition , something more complicated to develop. The best thing to do before betting is to practice using the bonuses of the bookmakers . If you are a beginner in the world of betting, it is best not to use discretionary methods, as the risk is greater. Stake for Bets to Fixed Prize: It is a fairly simple system when calculating the Stake, being quite powerful. It is a way in which you always get the same prize . Stake = Prize / Fee. If you mark the Stake limit you have set as a reward, you will not exceed it, so that you will have optimal risk control without having to do more things. The control of the fixed prize is an easy method, but quite effective when deciding the Stake. Example: • If the Stake limit you play with is 10 euros and you analyze the classification of the MLS of United States football, share 4 between Seattle Sounders and Portland Timbers, your bet would be: Stake = 10/4 = 2.5 euros. • We must notice that as the quota can not be less than 1, you will never exceed the 10 euros Stake limit. • The greater the probability, the lower the quota and vice versa. Therefore, the rule of increasing the Stakes with high probability and lowering those with less probability is met, all independently of the forecast and the value, which are always subject to a margin of error. Betting to Achieve a Certain Benefit: The problem that exists when it comes to setting prizes with our Stake is that for low odds we will earn little money. For many bettors , high odds are preferable, even if they have losing streaks, but for many novice bettors this may be very disappointing. This is the reason why they prefer to bet and win more times, playing with lower odds. To avoid this problem, we must aim for a systematic benefit in each bet. You should bet whenever we earn a net amount that is the same as if we were successful. This is done by applying the following formula: Stake = Profit / (Fee-1) Returning to the practical examples if you bet on a home win with a fee of 3 Real Madrid against Espanyol and want to have a benefit of 5 euros in your bet you have to play: Stake = 5 / (3-1) = 5/2 = 2.5 euros Let's see that the calculation is correct: • Our bet is 2.5 euros • If we win, we go to 2.5 x 3 = 7.5 euros • The resulting benefit = 7.5 euros of prize less 2.5 euros bet = 5 euros Keep in mind that this method unfortunately does not limit the Stake. If the quota is close to 1, the denominator will approach zero, which will multiply the Stake a lot. If we want to bet on a live match in the 85th minute with the local team winning 2-0, we will find 1.1 odds. or even more casualties. If the objective we have is to obtain a benefit of 10 euros we need to bet 100 euros to obtain it . This results in 10 times more money than the benefit we are looking for. With this criterion it is easy to exceed the stake limit, which demands that we make additional controls that make its use more complicated and that result from little practicality in some bets such as those made live. Conclusions Due to how simple and easy it is to use it, it is best to work with the fixed prize method, where a Stake limit that has a reasonable value between 5% and 10% of our bankroll is taken , which will make we have a good control of the risk, making sure that we bet little money when the probability in the successes is low and that we raise the bets when there are more probabilities of hitting.
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