Image Source

It sure feels like this golf season has flown by as we already find ourselves at the final major of the year.  This year's installment comes at us from Bellerive Country Club in St. Louis, MO.  This is a Par 70 course that plays at roughly 7300 yards.  Below I will break down the key stats that I am looking at as well as the top golfers in 4 different price ranges that I am targeting based on my model.

Key Stats:

  1. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee- Setting yourself up well off the tee is going to be vital this week.  The rough is crazy long and the fairways are lined with trees so hitting the fairway is going to be paramount.  Additionally, this course features many long par fours so distance will be a factor for many.
  2. Proximity 175-200- This is how close a golfer puts the ball to the hole from the corresponding yardage range.  3 of the 4 Par-3s fall in this range and also many players should find themselves in this range for their approaches as they navigate the long par-4s and the doglegs that are littered throughout the course.
  3. Three-Putt Avoidance- Due to the hot and humid Missouri summer, the organizers are not able to speed up the greens to where they would like them (see this tweet).  Slow greens usually even the playing field a little between the good and bad putters, but these greens are also MASSIVE.  Lag putting is going to be very important because even the best ball strikers are going to be faced with some long putts at some point.
  4. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking- This will account for all the players that make good contact regardless of where the shot is from.  Players that can pick their spots effectively both Off the Tee and on Approach will be at a big advantage this week.  Lots of draws will be necessary due to the doglegs with most of the penalty areas penalizing the over-draw (too much right-to-left movement for a right-handed golfer).
  5. Sand Saves Gained- This course boasts a total of 76 bunkers.  I do not like this stat as much because I feel like, with the greens being so big, players shouldn't be missing too many greens, but if ball striking is a little bit off then a player will have to be able to get up and down out of the bunker to stay in contention.  Also, if somehow the organizers are able to speed up the greens and make conditions tougher look for these to be much more in play.

Players To Target:

Here are the Top-4 players that I will be targeting based off of my model which accounts for the above 5 stats. I will pick one in each tier (10,000+ / 10,000-9,000 / 9,000-8,000 / <8,000)

  1. Dustin Johnson ($11,400)- No surprise that the number one player in the world grades out well for this course.  He is rightfully the most expensive player in the field, but his form is really good coming in with a victory and T-3 in his last two events so I think that he is worth the price this week.
  2. Justin Thomas ($9700)- This price is too cheap in my opinion for someone with his game coming off of a win the previous week at a course that correlates so well to this one.  
  3.  Patrick Cantlay ($8,400)- I have been on Cantlay the last few weeks and he has not disappointed coming inside the Top-15 in each of his last three tournaments.  He is a great ball striker and solid off the tee so I see no reason why his strong play won't continue.
  4. Gary Woodland ($7,000)-  First off, let me say that I try to avoid rostering Gary Woodland whenever I can because he can be so frustrating.  This week though he comes in at such a nice discount and has the ball striking, driving and approach numbers to back it all up.  He is normally let down by his putter, but I think that if he can use his ball striking to get close enough on the greens he should be able to minimize his lack of putting skills on these slower greens and pay off his low price.

*All prices are based off of Draft Kings pricing*

That's it for my write-up this week, let me know what you think about my picks down below and feel free to leave some comments about golfers you like this week!  Feedback on the structure of the article is welcome as well!

Good luck everyone, I will leave you all with this course fly-over video posted by the PGA Tour for anybody interested.