On Thursday I shared my Breeders' Cup pick for Friday, and she came through in a big way. Here's Newspaperofrecord's victory in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf.

My Bets from 11/2

My $22 bet on Newspaperofrecord came through and paid out $33 total. It was less than what I was hoping for, but when you have a horse that everyone likes this much, it's going to be harder to win anything significant. Still, this was a nice little win to give me more room to bet on Saturday's big race.

Unfortunately, I didn't make a exacta bet (picking first and second place), which I would have won at 16-1 odds. My trifecta bet, which ended up paying over $200, fell short as I hit the first and second place finishers but not third place (#7 in the race, a gigantic underdog). Here is my quick breakdown of the $6 million Breeders' Cup Classic.

Breaking Down the Breeders' Cup Classic

If you plan on betting on the race, I highly recommend that you download the free past performances (with notes) courtesy of Daily Racing Form here. They will give you insight on each of the 14 horses that will compete in the Classic.

"I am baffled by this race," said handicapper and well-known horse racing broadcaster Andy Serling. Like Serling, I also had a difficult time coming to a decision in this race. This year's edition of the Classic includes younger and older horses who have competed on different levels and race very different styles. If you only compare speed figures, which is just one of many factors that should be considered, you would choose Accelerate to win, which is not a bad pick at all and he will be the favorite as the horses head to the gate.

And while I do really like Accelerate, who has won three straight Grade 1 stakes races in a row on the dirt, my top choice is going to be an underdog that maybe shouldn't be an underdog. Up top, I'm going with the top-ranked three-year-old in all of Europe who is shipping over for the race -- Roaring Lion. Roaring Lion may be one of the best horses in the entire world, but he is a turf horse, leaving many analysts with a lot of unanswered questions as to his ability to handle the dirt surface at Churchill Downs. With four straight Grade 1 stakes wins in a row, I'm betting on the confidence of his trainer (John Gosden). You don't ship a champion like Roaring Lion over to America for a race if you don't believe he has a legitimate shot at winning.

Roaring Lions is currently at 20-1, but I imagine those odds will fall leading up to the rase to around 12-1. He's just too good at these odds to not strongly consider. I'm also in part basing my decision on the performance of Gronkowski -- the horse that surprised everyone in the Belmont Stakes earlier this year in his first run on the dirt. Roaring Lion is a more talented horse, and if he can handle kickback (dirt flying in his face from rivals), I think he will do just fine here.

Many of the other top contenders (Catholic Boy, West Coast, Yoshida, Mind Your Biscuits) also have issues getting in the way of me thinking they have a real shot of winning. Ranking my top nine horses in the order I believe they will finish, I have:

2 (Roaring Lion), 14 (Accelerate), 6 (McKinzie), 13 (Discreet Lover, an underdog who just keeps showing up big in races), 3 (Catholic Boy), 1 (Thunder Snow), 8 (Pavel), 10 (Yoshida), 7 (West Coast)

My Bets

Please know that I am completely unsure about this race and my picks, so please, don't follow me with this bet unless you are okay taking a long shot and losing your money. The bets I placed are as follows:

  • ($16) $1 Superfecta wager:
    • 2/14 w 2/6/14 w 2/3/6/14 w 2/3/6/13/14 

This is a crazy longshot bet, but something that would likey pay in the thousands if it were to hit. For each spot, I need to have one of the horses listed to finish in first, second, third, or fourth. So if the final results are 2,6,14,3 -- I win!

  • $5 on #2 to Win 

Roaring Lion is projected to be 20-1 to win, but I expect him to be bet down to around 10 or 12-1. Still, the win would yield a nice profit regardless of if we hit one of the other bets.

  • ($6) .50 Trifecta
    • 2 w 6/13/14 w 1/3/6/13/14

Another very risky bet with Roaring Lion on top. Go big or go home, right?

  • $6 Cash

I failed to finish my bets because I pissed off several older gamblers for taking too long at the machine. Instead of finishing, I apologized and left.

That's it! Let's see what happens. Go Roaring Lion!