Last weeks bets:
Cannonier to win at 3.20 = 5 x 3.20 = 16 - 5 = +11 units
Cannonier 2nd round KO at 15.00 = 1 x 15 = 15 - 1 = +14 units
Burns by ko at 7.00 = -1 unit
Cuteleba decision at 9.50 = -1 unit
Rountree decision at 5.00 = -1 unit
Oleksiejczuk by rnd 1 ko at 3.50 = -1 unit
Muradov by ko at 4.00 = -1 unit
Naurdiev rnd 1 ko at 12.00 = -1 unit
= 11 + 14 = 25 - 6 = +19 units
I guess just a heads up to how I place my bets and when I place them. I normally wait until as close to the cards start time as possible and spend time looking at the potential bets I've shared below and if they are over what I have shared I will find the best value out of each betting site and place the bet then. I normally wait closer to the card starting because then the casual fans will be placing there bets which can spike some good odds sometimes. For a straight bet such as "Cannonier to win" I will normally place 5 units on it and for a prop bet such as "Cannonier 2nd round KO" I will place 1 unit. 1 unit can be $1 or $1000 or whatever but whatever 1 unit is to you 5 units would then be 1 unit x 5 as in if 1 unit = $20 then 5 units = $100 for example. Because I post the potential bets before I place them I cant really tell you which bets I actually placed until after the event which could maybe delegitimize them but this platform does nothing for me besides lets me air out the thoughts that have been building in my head for a week anyway so oh well. Though you could probably figure out which bets I've placed by looking at the odds compared to what I've shared.
A bit of a strange card last week with some unexpected results but a lot of the time all you need is one of them to come through and thankfully Cannonier did me a solid and made it quite a profitable day for me.
Robert Whittaker vs. Israel Adesanya
Before I even looked into this match up I thought Whittaker would be a very good bet but then I looked into it.. and its still a good bet just not quite the odds I'm looking for. I think Whittaker as he has said himself "I think I can get in between his guard and put heat on him" and I cant think of anybody with a better style for knocking out Adesanya then Whittaker with his unusual movements and explosive darts into range. Something also tells me Adesanya's chin might be a little suspect judging off the way he got stunned bad against Gastelum on shots that didn't look that powerful or accurate. Whittaker also has the wrestling he can go to and maybe not the Gastelum level chin but a pretty great chin none the less. I've talked up Whittaker but you cant sleep on Adesanya. Adesanya has the potential to touch up Whittaker for 5 and maybe land a KO. Also Whittakers long lay off and Adesanya being extremely active wont help matters though Whittaker had a long lay off between Romero fights and didn't look different. Overall I think Whittaker is a good bet, Adesanya just scares me too much to place it.
- Whittaker by round 2 KO if over: 14.00
- Whittaker by round 3 KO if over: 15.00
Al Iaquinta vs. Daniel Hooker
Another match up where Hooker jumped right at me as soon as it was announced then slightly started to lose confidence as I looked into it. Hooker's rangy which seems to upset Iaquinta but Iaquinta could do a bit of wrastlin and put on a Frankie Edgar esque performance though I still am favoring Hooker to pick Iaquinta apart from range which probably seems like the obvious conclusion to anyone but Iaquinta cant be counted out. But another fight in which a first round KO is unlikely but instead of Adesanya's speed and footwork which deterred me it's Iaquinta's toughness and chin this time but Hooker does have legit power in his hands which doesn't really make sense but if it works it works. Iaquinta also doesn't make many adjustments on the feet or have other tools to go to and if Hooker starts figuring him out throughout the fight we could see a KO late.
- Hooker by round 2 KO if over: 20.00
- Hooker by round 3 KO if over: 20.00
Tai Tuivasa vs. Sergey Spivak
If Spivak isn't taking a quick nap before the co-main I'll be surprised and unfortunately so will the bookies so no real value here. Unless..
- Tuivasa by round 1 KO if over: 4.00
Luke Jumeau vs. Dhiego Lima
I wouldn't bet Lima. Not by the hair of his fragile chinny chin chin.
- Jumeau by KO if over: 10.00
- Jumeau by round 3 KO if over: 25.00
- Lima by round 3 KO if over: 30.00
Yorgan De Castro vs. Justin Tafa
Justin Tafa is like every Samoan kid I went to school with and will be rooting for him all the way but he's so untested and so is De Castro. With this type of fight I'd need something SUPER juicy to take and there just isn't anything.
- N\A
Jake Matthews vs. Rostem Akman
I'm kind of uncomfortable betting guys that are transitioning to werewolf so I've got some for Matthews who is good.
- Matthews by KO if over: 10.00
- Matthews by round 1 KO if over 14.00
Callan Potter vs. Maki Pitolo
Pitolo is like a budget Max Holloway, which is still good. Potter has NOTHING on the feet but has very slick jiu jitsu.
- Potter by submission if over: 12.00
- Potter by round 1 submission if over: 20.00
Brad Riddell vs. Jamie Mullarkey
Very interesting fight.
- Mullarkey by submission if over: 12.00
Megan Anderson vs. Z. Dos Santos
Anderson is the biggest underdog on the card which is super unjustified. This is like the Chiasson vs Lansberg fight last week but Anderson is 1-3 in the UFC and Dos Santos is a bit of a wild card.
- N\A
Nadia Kassem vs. Ji Yeon Kim
If Kassem can make it to the UFC so can you. Kim isn't too good either but at least she has bad boxing on her side, Kassem has terrible everything including moving back with her head in the air and her arms straight out. She fights like a girl who started in the gym last week. She might be in the UFC still because of her Instagram which is FIRE but that doesn't shield punches to the face.
- Kim by KO if over: 5.00
Khalid Taha vs. Bruno Silva
There is almost no footage of Silva besides his appearance on the Ultimate fighter 5 years ago. Taha is decent though but who knows what Silva is like right now.
- N\A
Comments