Tonight is game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Raptors and the Bucks. Thus far this series has been rather one sided with the Bucks holding serve on their home floor and holding a 2-0 series edge. The Raptors led a lot of game 1 but fell short late in the game and couldn't escape with a win. Meanwhile the Bucks have been on an absolute tear. They're up 2-0 in this series and are 10-1 straight up and against the spread so far in the playoffs and it looks like nothing is going to slow them down.

The oddsmakers know all of this information yet opened the game with Toronto as a favorite of -2.5 points. This tells me Vegas expects the Raptors to come through and pick up a win tonight. It's just difficult for a team to maintain a high intensity level over so many playoff games. Eventually they will have an off night and lose a game and I think that will happen tonight. The Raptors know the series is on the line in this game, they get the game at home and had to be a bit embarrassed by their performance last time out losing by 22 points.

Tonight I'm taking the Raptors on the moneyline as a slight favorite at -130 odds. I expect them to win handily but with the spread and moneyline so close together I would rather just need them to win the game. The Bucks are likely going to the Finals and I predicted they win this series in 6 games but I just don't think they will win tonight. So that's my play, good luck if you're betting!