Welcome back all! We are right smack in the middle of Conference Tournament (aka Championship) week, which means it's time to check on the ever-so precarious "bubble". All of the remaining automatic bids will be awarded as the week goes on, while those on the "bubble" get one final opportunity to make a postseason run.
We start in the ACC, where Wednesday's action in the Atlantic Coast tournament produced the two biggest games of the day as it pertained to the "bubble".
Syracuse took care of N.C. State in the 8 vs 9 matchup in an 89-68 shellacking of the Wolfpack and advance to take on top-seed Virginia in the quarterfinals. An upset of the Cavaliers is exactly what the Orange could use to go from just outside of the bracket to the right side of the cutline. For now, they are the first team out of the field.
The Orange also received a bit of a boost when Xavier blew a lead against Butler and fell in overtime in the opening round of the Big East tournament. That's losses to Georgetown, Marquette, and now a 10-14 Butler team to end the season for the Mountaineers. Not a good look for the X - especially with the way they went out against a not-so-good Butler squad - out-scored 33-19 in the 2nd half.
At just 13-8 with a NET pushing 60 and only (1) quad 1 win, it appears as though this early exit will cost them a spot in the field of 68. Xavier falls back to "next 4 out" territory and out of the tournament.
Meanwhile, back in the ACC, Duke was able to breeze past Boston College in the opening round Tuesday night. That gave them an excellent opportunity to come back to "bubble" life if they could knock-off Louisville (a projected tournament team) and reach the quarterfinals.
The Blue Devils did just that by taking down the Cardinals 70-56, leaving a make-or-break opportunity against Florida State. The 2-seed Seminoles and Dukies did not meet during the regular season. A victory would put Duke in position to possibly jump back into the field, but a loss would leave them at just 13-12 for the season, and a longshot to receive one of the final at-large bids.
While Duke is trying to make a last-gasp run to get in, another blue-blood with a rich history is just trying to not slip too far back.
Once upon a time UCLA was 17-5 and safely in the projected field with 3 excellent opportunities to boost their resume left to closeout the regular season. However, road losses at Colorado & Oregon, and a home loss to rival USC in the regular season finale, have left them creeping back toward the cutline.
As of right now the Bruins are still relatively safely in, but with just a sweep of Arizona & home victory over Colorado as wins of note on their resume, an early exit in the Pac-12 tournament to Oregon State may make the remaining wait to Selection Sunday unnecessarily nerve-wracking.
Drake, VCU, Boise State, and Utah State round out the projected bracket as the "last 4 teams in". The Aggies took advantage of Xavier's stumble to jump into the field as the last team in. Meanwhile, Syracuse and Duke find themselves just out and in the "first 4 out" group joining Saint Louis & St. John's.
Xavier, Ole Miss, Memphis, and SMU comprise the "next 4 out" group of teams. They are followed by Minnesota and Seton Hall, who are both barely still alive thanks to their strength of schedule qualities and possible opportunities in their respective conference tournaments. The Pirates are 3-7 in quad 1 games, while Minnesota has registered a whopping 14 quad 1 games - going 4-10. Both need a couple more wins to have a realistic shot, but stranger things have happened...
THE "BUBBLE":
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Team, record in ( ), followed by current NET ranking, and W-L record in 'Quad 1' games
LAST 4 BYES
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10 MICHIGAN STATE (15-11) 65, 5-9
11 UCLA (17-8) 41, 2-6
11 COLORADO STATE (17-5) 50, 2-3
11 LOUISVILLE (13-7) 52, 1-5
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LAST 4 IN (PLAY-IN GAMES)
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11 DRAKE (25-4) 47, 1-2
11 VCU (19-6) 35, 2-4
12 BOISE STATE (18-7) 44, 2-4
12 UTAH STATE (18-7) 48, 2-4
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FIRST 4 OUT
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SYRACUSE (16-8) 49, 1-6
SAINT LOUIS (14-6) 45, 2-2
DUKE (13-11) 51, 2-5
ST. JOHN'S (16-10) 67, 2-6
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NEXT 4 OUT
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XAVIER (13-8) 58, 1-2
OLE MISS (15-10) 54, 3-4
MEMPHIS (15-7) 53, 0-3
SMU (11-4) 56, 0-3
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LAST GASP...
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SETON HALL (13-12) 59, 3-7
MINNESOTA (14-14) 80, 4-10
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