College Basketball "Bubble" Update: One Final Opportunity to Make An Impression
It has been an extremely eventful week already for the college basketball "bubble" as a whole. There were a few teams that really helped their chances and a couple that suffered potentially damaging set-backs. We have a big weekend of regular season ending showdowns ahead of us, many of which will have a direct impact on the backend of the bracket and the "bubble" as a whole.
First we start with a couple of teams that have already helped themselves out this week. Minnesota got a marque home- win over Purdue at the beginning of the week, and did wonders to securing a potential at-large bid. They finish their regular season tonight @ Maryland where a loss wouldn't hurt Minnesota's resume. A win would lock the Golden Gophers into the field and most likely move them up the seed-line to 8/9 territory.
In addition to Minnesota, Seton Hall's huge come-from-behind win over Marquette on Wednesday helped moved the Pirates into "safely in" territory for the time being. Seton Hall's resume compares favorably to the rest of the "bubble" thanks in large part to a neutral floor victory over Kentucky.
While Minnesota and Seton Hall took advantage, N.C. State and Ohio State did not. While a home game against Georgia Tech (14-17) and road game at Northwestern (13-17) didn't offer much of a resume boost in either case, they are games that tournament-worthy teams are expected to win down the stretch. Instead? The Wolfpack lost at home to a Georgia Tech team that was playing short-handed to boot. Ohio State could only must 50 points in an 18-point blowout loss to the worst team in the Big TEN. The upset victory for Northwestern put the Wildcats at just 4-15 in Big TEN play. For some reason, the "mock" brackets out there really aren't letting that lackluster result have much of an impact on where they see OSU. Ohio State is just 8-11 now in the Big TEN. If they lose at home to Wisconsin on Sunday and Indiana wins at home against Rutgers, both will have identical 8-12 records within the Big TEN, with Indiana owning the far more impressive wins.
What does it mean? The Buckeyes and Wolfpack have left themselves significant work to do. As it sits heading into the final weekend of the regular season, the "Bubble" shapes up as the following:
[I've included each team's record, NET & RPI rankings, as well as what each needs to do before now and selection Sunday to feel good about their at-large chances]
"SAFELY IN FOR NOW":
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OKLAHOMA (7-10, 19-11) (41/36)
A loss @ Kansas State to close out the season won't hurt the Sooners. The win over Kansas should have them safely in the field.
SETON HALL (8-9, 17-12) (63/63)
Knock-off Villanova at home over the weekend and add yet another "marque" win, and the Pirates will emerge as an 8/9 seed. A loss won't be detrimental, but another loss in their first game of the Big East tournament (against most-likely Xavier) would be.
UTAH STATE (15-3, 25-6) (30/31)
It's pretty easy for the Aggies at this point. They got the big 'marque' win they needed last weekend over Nevada, avoided a letdown @ Colorado State, and are now 'safely' in the tournament. The only thing that could derail an at-large bid? An early loss in the MWC tournament.
MINNESOTA (9-10, 19-11) (56/49)
Congrats Richard Pitino and the Golden Gophers, your victory over Purdue earlier in the week should be enough to get you an at-large bid. Win tonight @ Maryland and the Gophers will become cemented in the field.
"LAST FOUR BYES":
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FLORIDA (9-8, 17-13) (35/67)
Ok Florida so which Gators are going to show up this weekend at Kentucky? The version that went on the road and looked impressive in a road upset of LSU a couple weeks ago, or the team that looked terrible in a home loss to previously 1-14 in SEC play Georgia? Better hope for the former and at least one win in the SEC tournament or the Gators could end up in the NIT.
ARIZONA STATE (11-6, 20-9) (68/40)
The Sun Devils are safe for now, but they need to take advantage of a down year from in-state rival Arizona on the road to close out the season. From there, win as many as you can in the Pac-12 tournament.
TEXAS (8-9, 16-14) (33/46)
It's rather simple for the Longhorns, win tomorrow at home over fellow Big XII & "bubble" foe TCU, and you will remain in the field and maybe even move up a seed-line. Lose, and at just 16-15 overall, that would leave significant work to do in the Big XII tournament.
N.C. STATE (8-9, 20-10) (31/92)
First off, don't follow-up a home loss to Georgia Tech with a road loss to Boston College tomorrow. That will doom the Wolfpack. Win against the Eagles, and then pickup another win in the ACC tournament, and the "NET" ratings will most likely be enough to get them in. Lose to BC or in their opening game in the ACC tourny and they will be done.
"LAST FOUR IN":
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TEMPLE (12-5, 22-8) (57/35)
The Owls avoided a loss in a tough road matchup at UConn last night. Knock-off suddenly red-hot UCF on Sunday at home to close out the season, and the Owls should be in. A loss? And Temple will most likely need to upset either Cincy or Houston in the AAC tournament. Better just take care of business on Sunday.
BELMONT (16-2, 25-4) (45/43)
The Bruins continue to receive a boost from the metrics as both the NET and RPI like Belmont. The Bruins need to advance to their conference title game at the very least, however. A loss to say Murray State would keep them very much alive on the "Bubble". Lose to anyone else, and the Bruins' bubble will burst.
ALABAMA (8-9, 17-13) (53/42)
Again, it's rather simple for the Crimson Tide as well. This weekend's game @ Arkansas is now a must-win. Win that one, and then win two more in the SEC tournament, and that should be enough. An early Conf tourny exit would almost certainly leave the Crimson Tide on the outside looking in.
TCU (6-11, 18-12) (54/48)
The Horned Frogs may be right on the cut-line, but their path is the easiest to forecast. Lose tomorrow at Texas and your done. Win and complete a sweep of the Longhorns to go along with the sweep they have of Iowa State, and TCU should feel a bit safer. Follow that up with at least one win in the Big XII tourny and the Horned Frogs will be in.
"FIRST FOUR OUT":
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FURMAN (13-5, 24-6) (44/55)
For the Paladins I think it's rather simple as well. Don't lose to anyone else except for Wofford in the Southern Conference tournament and you will have a legitimate chance of hearing your name called on selection Sunday. Of course, they could just win the Southern tourny and take the guess work out of it.
INDIANA (7-12, 16-14) (55/82)
First off defeat Rutgers at home to finish off the regular season. Then knock-off either Rutgers or Illinois most likely again in the 1st round of the Big TEN tourny. The Hoosiers then would have an opportunity in the Big Ten quarterfinals against one of the conference's elite teams.
OHIO STATE (8-11, 18-12) (43/51)
Well, as noted above the Buckeyes need to upset Wisconsin at home on Sunday. A loss there would leave them with an uphill climb ahead of the Big TEN tournament. Beat the Badgers and OSU will most likely punch their ticket. A loss will leave plenty of work to do.
CLEMSON (8-11, 18-12) (39/62)
First off, pickup a victory over Syracuse at home tomorrow to finish up the regular season. Then win at least one, but more-than-likely two more in the ACC tournament and the Tigers should be safely in. Lose at home to the Orange? Well at just 8-12 in the ACC and 18-13 overall, with a lacking resume, and they will need a BIG run in the ACC tourny.
Well, there you have it everyone. The pathways are set for the backend of the "bubble", now its time to sit back and enjoy all of the action unfold. I would love to hear your thoughts below in the comments section! As always, thank you for all of your support, and enjoy all of the games ahead of us - happy reading & writing!!
Checkout my video dissecting the "Bubble" as it currently sits:
https://youtu.be/GAihlfLJN28
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