Welcome back all! Last night the CFP committee released their penultimate set of rankings ahead of this weekend's all-important conference title games. We learned a lot from last night's rankings, mainly that the Utah Utes appear to be in great shape to sneak into the playoff, and the winner of the Big XII title game still has a chance to get in. It's time to take a look at the "winners" & "losers" of this week's CFP rankings.
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WINNERS:
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UTAH UTES
Utah was in the #6 spot last week, and with Alabama's loss to Auburn, was the obvious choice to move up to #5. The committee did exactly that, and didn't throw us any surprises by leap-frogging the Utes with a Big XII team (Oklahoma, Baylor, or both). Utah plays 13th-ranked Oregon in the Pac-12 title game. The Ducks won 10 games and will count as a "marque" win, making it extremely difficult for the committee to drop the Utes behind the Big XII Champ come Sunday, should they win. Yes, the Sooners & Bears are both 11-1, but it's going to be tough to argue that a win over an 11-1 team was far & away more significant than a win over a 10-2 team. Furthermore, the Utes continue to rank ahead of both Oklahoma & Baylor in team efficiency metrics, which should continue to help the Utes in the committee's evaluations.
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WISCONSIN BADGERS
As predicted, the Badgers landed at #8 this week. There was a little bit of talk that the committee could possibly have Wisconsin 1 spot ahead of Baylor at 7. That would have created an interesting scenario for that last spot should the Badgers & Bears both pull upsets this weekend. The committee didn't do that, but they also moved the Badgers up enough to seemingly punch their ticket to the Rose Bowl. The committee has shown a penchant to not penalize teams for losing to top-tier competition. Point in hand - Michigan was absolutely pummeled by Ohio State and looked pretty bad in the process and the committee only dropped them 1 spot this week. Oklahoma State looked flat and underwhelming in the second half of their loss to Oklahoma, and still stayed in the rankings despite dropping to 8-4. It would be tough for the committee to drop the Badgers behind Penn State after only dropping Michigan one spot this week. The Badgers most likely only drop a spot - or two at the most with a loss to the Buckeyes. Of course, they need to avoid a 59-0 pasting like what happened in the 2014 Big TEN Title game.
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LOSERS:
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MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS
The Gophers enjoyed a banner year, maybe just without the actual banner. After heading into last week's rivalry showdown with Wisconsin at an impressive 10-1, including a marque win over Penn State, the Gophers had a chance to continue the magical ride. The Badgers lit up the Gophers in the second half, and shutdown what had been an impressive, explosive offense in the snow. The committee really hammered Minnesota after the loss, dropping them 10 spots from last week, all the way back to #18. With Penn State sitting at #10, and the Badgers getting into the Big TEN Title game, the Gophers have virtually no chance at getting a high-profile New Year's Day Bowl. They were on the cusp of possibly their first Rose Bowl birth since 1962, and now will more than likely still get a New Year's Day Bowl, it most likely will be the Citrus Bowl or Outback Bowl. Not quite the profile of a New Year's Six Bowl. With both Michigan & Iowa now ahead of the Gophers in the CFP rankings, there is no guarantee they get in either of those Bowl games either, and could drop all the way back to the Dec 27th Holiday Bowl.
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APPALACHIAN STATE MOUNTAINEERS
The Mountaineers are once again in the Sun Belt Title game, but seem to have virtually no shot at getting the "Group of Five's" spot in a New Year's Six bowl game. With victories over a pair of Power 5 conference schools in North Carolina & South Carolina, an 11-1 record, and a number of blowout victories under their belt, the Mountaineers were probably at least hoping for a shot at a New Year's Six Bowl game. After the committee's latest set of rankings, however, that doesn't seem to be the case. Memphis is the highest ranked of the "Group of 5" teams, and rightfully so. If they can take down Cincinnati for the second consecutive week, this time in the AAC Title game, then the Tigers will punch their ticket to a New Year's Six Bowl game. Cincinnati dropped only two spots after the loss to the Tigers this past weekend, which kept them ahead of App State and basically setup a scenario where the winner of the rematch between Memphis & Cincy will be the highest ranked "Group of 5" team come Sunday night. That leaves the Mountaineers with virtually no chance of getting that New Year's Six Bowl bid, even though they will be playing a surprising 10-2 UL-Lafayette squad in the Sun Belt Title game.
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