Welcome back everyone and a very happy Wednesday! I'm super-pumped & excited today to bring you the results of the Elite 8 round of simulations. If you've been following along, you know I've been doing my best to keep March Madness alive in my own little way by simulating the entire NCAA basketball tournament, using my Official 2020 March Madness NCAA Tournament Bracket that I released the Saturday of Selection weekend. We started with play-in games and have went through the opening round, Round of 32, Sweet 16, down to the Elite 8.
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The simulation has had some fun with us, throwing in plenty of curveballs and upsets, and has certainly made things entertaining. Today it was time to simulate the Elite 8 round and find out who made it all the way to the Final Four! In a season that was pretty much wide-open from the get-go, the tournament simulation has followed suit.
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Before we dive into the results, one quick note as always about the simulation & results - I could do this sim a 100 times, 10,000 times, etc. and pick a random sim or the winner in the majority of results like a lot of others do, but as you all know, that's not how real 'March Madness' works, the games are played once, so whatever this simulation threw at us, so be it, we would roll with it. It's been a fun ride thus far, so, who advanced on to the Final Four you ask!? Buckle-up, it's time to find out!:
The first game of the Elite 8 took us to the East Region where we had a highly-anticipated showdown between Bluegrass State rivals, 3-seed Kentucky & 4-seed Louisville. The Wildcats disposed of Duke with surprising ease in the Sweet 16, while Louisville blew past Texas Tech with an overwhelming second half effort.
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Kentucky once again "pounced" early as they built a comfortable 41-28 half-time lead, and then put it on cruise-control in the second half as they out-lasted the Cardinals, 77-65, to become the first team to punch their ticket to the Final Four. The SEC regular season Champions finished the season by going 9-1 in their final 10, and were able to ride that wave of momentum through the tournament and all the way to the Final Four.
The second Regional Final showdown took us to the South Region where a pair of surprise Cinderellas were hoping to continue their magical run through the field. The 12-seed Indiana Hoosiers had to win a play-in game over Xavier just to get in the field, and have made the most of their opportunity. Meanwhile, Utah St. shocked San Diego State to win the Mountain West Tournament, and haven't looked back since.
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The Hoosiers got out to a 34-27 halftime lead, but the Aggies were determined to battle-back throughout the second half, as they got it within 1, but were never able to get over the hump completely, as Indiana made a couple of free throws in the closing seconds to ice it. In doing so, the Hoosiers become the first team seeded higher than an 11 to ever advance to the Final Four! Congrats to the #12 seed for making history, as the simulation continues to have some fun with us!
The third matchup of the Elite 8 takes us to the Midwest Region for what was expected to be an excellent matchup between the 4-seed Wisconsin Badgers & 2-seed Florida State Seminoles. This one might have been the most plausible of the Elite 8 showdowns based on how the teams looked on paper going into the simulation, but the Badgers' upset of top-overall seed Kansas in the Sweet 16 was still a bit of a surprise. Florida State on the other hand, was expected to make another run, and possibly break through for Leonard Hamilton's first Final 4.
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In another fantastic game, the two played to a 41-41 first half deadlock. Once again, the Badgers relied on their defense down the stretch, as they held FSU to just 27 in the second half, pulling away for a 79-68 victory. UW went 6-6 from the foul line in the closing moments to put the game away and advance to the Final Four where they will once-again meet Kentucky in the National Semifinal (the two met in the 2015 Final Four).
That brings us to the final game of the Elite 8 as we head out to the West Region for a showdown between 8-seed Colorado & 7-seed Penn State. While at first glance, this may seem like a complete & total shocker, but let's not forget both of these teams got off to strong starts to the season, went through mid-season hot streaks, and then both cooled considerably down the stretch. Colorado started the season 19-5, but finished with 5 straight losses to close the season, while Penn State started 20-5, but closed the season just 1-5 in their final 6. While both teams peaked earlier in the season and cracked the top 10, both fell out of the Top 25 by the end of the season. It appears that both have played up to their potential in the simulation thus far, leaving us with a 7 vs 8 showdown for the last spot in the Final Four.
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The Nittany Lions jumped out to a 41-30 first half lead, but the Buffaloes came storming back down the stretch. PSU led 67-57 with just over 3 minutes to play, but Colorado went on a 7-0 spurt to get within 3. A missed front-end of a 1-1 bonus situation gave the Buffaloes one last chance to tie it, but a 3 at the buzzer was short and Penn State becomes the third team out of the Big TEN to reach the Final Four!
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Well, there you have it everyone, we have our Final Four set. 3-seed Kentucky is probably the least surprising of the Final Four participants, while 12-seed Indiana has to easily be the biggest shocker. From last 4 in, to play-in game winners by a single point over Xavier, all the way to becoming the first 12-seed to ever reach the Final Four, the Hoosiers run has been a complete surprise. Wisconsin finished the regular season on an impressive 8-game winning streak to grab a share of the Big TEN regular season Conference Title - beating the other two Co-Champs (Michigan State & Maryland) along the way. The Badgers' kept their hot streak going as well in the tournament, as they took out WKU & BYU before scoring surprising upsets over Kansas & Florida State, respectively.
Finally, that brings us to Penn State - the other astounding entrant to the Final Four. The Nittany Lions certainly benefited from other upsets in the West Region, as once they got past the 2-seed San Diego State in the second round, they had the fortune of playing a 14-seed in Boston U., and an 8-seed in Colorado, to advance to the Final Four.
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Well, we've managed to do it, starting all the way back with the original 68, we've went down to the Round of 32, Sweet 16, Elite 8, and have dwindled the field all-the-way down to the Final Four! With the Big TEN easily rated as the most difficult conference all season long, and landing the most teams in the tournament with 10, maybe it is only fitting that three teams from the conference made the Final Four. Of course, one could argue that the three that advanced were all a bit of a surprise, one thing is now for certain - there will be a Big TEN team in the National Title game no matter what, thanks to the 7 Penn State - 12 Indiana Semifinal. Will the conference end it's 20-year Championship drought?
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As always, I appreciate all of the support, and would love to get your thoughts in the comments section below. I hope you all are enjoying the simulation as much as I am. Who do you have advancing to the National Championship game? I will have the results to the two National Semifinal games on Friday! In the meantime, stay calm, stay safe, and stay positive everybody!
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Be sure to checkout today's video recapping the Elite 8 simulation results as the Final Four is officially revealed!:
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https://youtu.be/6PeqRkdTEws
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Chris Elgersma
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Don't forget to find me on Instagram & YouTube:
@sportsguychris
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