NCAA Basketball "Bubble" Assessment: What to do With Oklahoma & Alabama?
We are starting to come down the home stretch in the college basketball regular season as everyone has just 2-4 games remaining on their schedule. As everyone jockies for position coming down the stretch, and numerous teams attempt to bolster their resume in the eyes of the committee, it is the perfect time to assess the current "Bubble" situation. The "Bubble" is particularly lackluster this season with several mediocre teams vying to snag an at-large bid. This has once again led to an interesting scenario where we have a handful of "mid-majors" with sparkling win-loss records competing with several "power" conference schools that are significantly lacking in overall resume depth and quality.
There are two power schools in particular that find themselves right smack in the middle of the "Bubble" situation, that exemplify the above scenario perfectly. The Oklahoma Sooners are currently just 5-9 in Big XII Conference play, but went 12-1 in their nonconference with several 'quality' wins of note. Meanwhile, the Alabama Crimson Tide are a little better at 7-7 in SEC play, but are also just 16-11 overall.
The Sooners own a non-conference win over Florida, which is looking better and better by the moment, as the Gators are on a roll of late. They also own non-conference wins over Wofford and Dayton, which at first glance may not look all that impressive, but Wofford is on a tear and would be a single-digit seed if the tournament started today at 24-4 overall. Dayton has went from being an afterthought to a legitimate "bubble" contender with their play over the past few weeks. Those are definitely quality wins in the Sooners' favor. Their one non-conference loss was a 20-point loss to Wisconsin, who will most likely be somewhere around a 5-seed come tournament time.
The problem with the Sooners is what they've done - or rather not done - within Big XII conference play. OU is just 5-9 within the Big XII, with a 7-point loss to last-place West Virginia, who is just 10-17 on the season. They also lost to Baylor (18-9) at home by 30 in an absolute demolition.
When you look at OU's 5 conference wins, 2 have come against Oklahoma State, who is also just 10-17 on the season, a sweep of TCU (who would be in the tournament if it started today) and a win over Texas yesterday. The problem with those wins is - none of them may mean anything as both TCU and Texas are anything but locks, and have a lot of work to do themselves. It is completely possible that both could fall out of the field by selection Sunday.
No real significant wins within conference play, and with their best overall win currently coming against either Wofford or Florida (take your pick), the Sooners just have more work to do. The good news for Oklahoma is that their remaining conference schedule offers three opportunities to get at least one 'marque' win within conference play. They finish up @ Iowa State (19-8), vs West Virginia, vs Kansas (20-7), and @ Kansas State (21-6). Avoid losing to West Virginia (as a sweep at the hands of the last-place Mountaineers would be devastating to their chances), and then win 2 of the other 3, to pickup a pair of quality wins within conference, and the Sooners will put themselves in position to make the tournament.
Looking at Alabama, the Crimson Tide have faired better than the Sooners thus far within their conference play at 7-7 in the SEC. Alabama has definitely done better with a trio of quality conference wins - Mississippi State is just outside of the top 25, Ole Miss should be safely in the tournament, and their home victory over Kentucky just keeps getting better and better as the Wildcats could very easily end up as a 1-seed.
While Alabama has the shiny conference victories that Oklahoma is lacking, their non-conference was a bit more adventurous and inconsistent than the Sooners'. While they defeated a pair of quality mid-majors in Liberty (23-6) & Murray State (23-4), they also lost to a pair of mid-majors, who aren't quite as good. A 68-52 loss to Northeastern is ugly, and a 83-80 set back to Georgia State doesn't look so good either. The one other knock on the Crimson Tide is the fact they were swept by lowly Texas A&M (12-14) in SEC play.
So, what does it all add up to for these two perspective "Bubble" teams? Alabama gets the nod over Oklahoma based on those trio of "quality" wins, despite the two nasty non-conference losses. The victory over Kentucky, even though it came at home is still far and away better than the top victory for the Sooners. That has Alabama just in the field at the moment, and the Sooners as the first team out.
By the time it's all said and done, I expect both of these teams to get in. While Furman (22-6), Lipscomb (21-6), and Utah State (22-6) all have more impressive win-loss records at the moment, they won't have the opportunities that both Oklahoma and Alabama have to get quality wins to close out the season thanks to their weaker respective conferences. Utah State is the exception as they have a big showdown looming with Nevada looming. Win that one, and the Aggies will solidify themselves in the field.
As it currently stands, the "Bubble" looks like this:
LAST FOUR BYES:
N.C. STATE (7-7, 19-8) RPI 90 SOS 29
TCU (6-8, 18-9) RPI 37 SOS 40
TEXAS (7-7, 15-12) RPI 47 SOS 19
MINNESOTA (7-9, 17-10) RPI 51 SOS 38
LAST FOUR IN:
OHIO STATE (7-9, 17-10) RPI 56 SOS 31
BELMONT (14-2, 23-4) RPI 50 SOS 120
ALABAMA (7-7, 16-11) RPI 49 SOS 37
DAVIDSON (11-3, 20-7) RPI 53 SOS 94
FIRST FOUR OUT:
OKLAHOMA (5-9, 17-10) RPI 30 SOS 13
LIPSCOMB (12-2, 21-6) RPI 70 SOS 110
FURMAN (11-5, 22-6) RPI 59 SOS 141
CLEMSON (6-8, 16-11) RPI 63 SOS 26
NEXT FOUR OUT:
UTAH STATE (12-3, 22-6) RPI 44 SOS 90
DAYTON (10-4, 18-9) RPI 69 SOS 84
OREGON STATE (9-5, 17-9) RPI 92 SOS 83
BUTLER (6-8, 15-12) RPI 57 SOS 43
Still in the mix, barely: Georgetown (6-8, 16-11) RPI 82 SOS 65 & San Francisco (9-5, 21-7) RPI 45 SOS 91. The "Bubble" is very close to bursting for both Georgetown and San Franciso as both suffered major set-backs with losses yesterday. Both are going to need to finish off the regular season without another loss, and both will need to do some work in their respective conference tournaments to have a chance.
As always, I would love to hear your thoughts below in the comments section - do Oklahoma and Alabama both belong in the tournament if it started today? Do conference win-loss records matter when determining the NCAA tournament field? Thanks for reading as always, and enjoy another busy week of college bball action ahead of us!
https://youtu.be/P_yEPbA-jU0
Comments