Last night the CFP committee released their second set of rankings, and while there was only one change in the top four from the initial rankings, there seems to be legitimate pathways for those sitting outside of the current top 4. Below is a breakdown of how each team ranked between #5 - #12 can still reach the last 4. The rankings listed are from my top 25 with the committee's rankings in parentheses. Some have rather clear-cut roads ahead of them, but others will need chaos to reign the rest of the year if they are to sneak in.
5 (5) Georgia -
Defeat Alabama in the SEC Title Game, and the Bulldogs will not only be in the Playoff, but will most likely enter as the top-seed. Lose before or in the conference title game and UGA will almost certainly drop out of the top 4.
6 (6) Oklahoma -
First of all, win this wknd in the Bedlam showdown. Next, defeat West Virginia in the season finale, and then win the Big XII Title game. A loss to West Virginia may not completely derail the Sooners believe-it-or-not, because in that scenario they will more than likely get a crack at them again in the Big XII Title game. Either way, they must get to, and win the Big XII Title.
7 (12) UCF -
First things first, the Knights must win-out, and even if they do, their pathway is not completely clear. However, if the Knights do run the table, and Washington St. loses 1 game, Oklahoma loses 1 game, and West Virginia loses 1 game a pathway of sorts will open up. A 2-loss Pac 12 Champion will not get in period, and a 2-loss Big XII Champion will have a very difficult time getting in. Alabama needs to beat Georgia as well, and then a final four with Knights becomes much more likely of a scenario. Of course, a stumble by Notre Dame or loss by Michigan to say, Ohio State, would also provide a bit of an easier road to the final 4.
8 (8) Washington St. -
Even a 1-loss Cougars team could still get left out of the playoff, but there are plenty of scenarios for WSU to sneak in. First off, win at Colorado this week, knock off in-state rival Washington in the Apple Cup and then take care of business in the Pac 12 Title game. Alabama needs to beat Georgia as well, and then 1 more loss from Oklahoma would almost guarantee that the Cougars get-in. A loss by Notre Dame would do it as well, as 1-loss ND compared to a 1-loss WSU would almost certainly favor the Cougars for two reasons - 1 - they will be a conference Champion, and 2 - they would more than likely have the better resume thanks to many of the Irish's opponents not being as good as projected (Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Florida State, Stanford to name a few).
9 (9) West Virginia -
The Mountaineers path to the playoff more than likely will need to feature a pair of wins over Oklahoma. Iowa State and Texas could still figure into the equation, but a win over the Sooners in the regular season finale is a must. Win the following week in the Big XII Title game and WVU will more than likely be in the playoff. Again, Alabama beating Georgia is a must as well. A loss by the Irish would also favor the Mountaineers and a stumble by Washington St. would be the perfect scenario for the Mountaineers to get into the final 4.
10 (10) Ohio St. -
As much as I ragged on the Buckeyes yesterday for their lack of quality wins, and lackluster play the past two weeks, OSU still has a fairly straightforward path to the playoff. Even though they are currently 10th, if they win out they will be in, no matter what else happens in front of them. A win at Michigan State this Saturday and against rival and currently #4 Michigan would give Ohio State a huge boost to its resume. Win the Big Ten Title game once-again and there is no way the committee will keep a 1-loss Big TEN Champion out of the playoff. The conference ranks right behind the SEC this season in terms of difficulty and that wont change by the end of the season.
11 (7) LSU -
The Tigers got an absolute gift from the CFP committee when they dropped only four spots and checked in at #7 in this week's rankings. Usually a blowout loss on National Televison in a marque game, where you fail to score a single point and rush for 12 yards will stick a fork in your season. The Tigers do have a very impressive overall resume, but the loss to Alabama was really, really ugly no matter how you try to spin it. Remember, they lost by the same margin as Missouri did (29) to Alabama - except Mizzou's loss was in Tuscaloosa and not at home. As for the playoff, the Tigers absolutely need Georgia to lose to Bama because they will not get in over a 1-loss Alabama or 1-loss Georgia. Then, they need Notre Dame to lose, and for the Pac-12 to have a 2-loss Conference Champion. That would open the door enough for the Tigers to possibly slip-in. Of course, a 3-lose Champion from the Big TEN and Big 12 would make that path almost certain. LSU still needs to win out, and needs plenty of help, but it is all definitely possible.
12 (11) Kentucky -
The Wildcats suffered their first harrowing defeat of the season this past week, dropping a 34-17 contest at home to Georgia. They were officially eliminated from the SEC Title race with the loss, and somehow are ranked 11th and 1 spot ahead of Central Florida in the committee's rankings which makes absolutely no sense. As for Kentucky's path to the playoffs - chaos, chaos, chaos! First, they need to get Georgia out of the way, and the only way that happens is if the Bulldogs lose before the SEC Title game (which most likely would have to be this wknd against Auburn) and then lose to Bama in the Title game to drop to 3 losses. Then, well, hope for 3-loss Conference Champions out of the Pac-12, Big XII, and Big TEN, and then oh yea - they would still need LSU to lose once more. It's not inconceivable, but it's also not at all likely, but hey - ya never know right!
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