Source: personalizedcollegephotos.com / We are getting closer and closer to conference tournament time, with just 1 week left in the college hoops season, it's time to take a look at my latest NCAA tournament projections.

Welcome back everyone! It is that time once again. February is behind us, and the glimmer & glow of conference tournaments & the 'Big Dance' are nearly upon us. Sunday will mark the end of the regular season, leaving teams with just 1 or 2 more games to help bolster their cause before conference tournaments tip-off (a few mid-major leagues will get on their way this week). So, with precious few games left on the regular season docket, let's take a look at how the perspective NCAA tournament field would look as of today.

-

There was a change at the very top of the field as Kansas has continued their hot streak and are now projected as the top overall seed. This of course should come as no surprise thanks to the Jayhawks victory at Baylor 9 days ago, and the fact that they are a unanimous #1 in the polls. Baylor remains on the 1-line, even after their shocking loss at TCU over the weekend. Recent stumbles by Duke and Maryland have helped to keep the Bears on the 1-line despite dropping 2 of their last 3.

-

Dayton moved up to the 1-line thanks to San Diego State dropping their first game of the year - at home to a UNLV team that was just 14-14 at the time. The loss dropped the Aztecs to the 2-line, but they should remain in the conversation for a #1 as well, provided they take care of business and win the Mountain West tournament. Other significant movers included Kentucky moving up to the 2-line, Michigan State & Oregon both moving up a line to projected #4 seeds, Ohio State jumping up two seed-lines and landing as a #5, and Wisconsin moving up two seed-lines as well to a #6. Saint Mary's is also comfortably in the field, now firmly in as the top 9-seed at the moment.

Source: SBNation.com / Dayton has flew right to the top-seed line. The Flyers are now 27-2, have remained unbeaten in A-10 play, and own an #3 NET ranking.

Meanwhile, Arizona and West Virginia have struggled mightily as of late. Despite both having troubles getting wins over the past couple of weeks, the metrics still love both. The Wildcats have dropped 3 straight, and are just 3-4 in their last 7. Despite the lackluster play as of late, they still have a sparkling NET of 11. The glowing metrics have them as a #7 currently, but they need to get back to winning at some point. It's been even worse for West Virginia, as the Mountaineers have also dropped 3 straight, and are just 1-6 in their last 7 overall. The NET still loves them (#21 currently), but at just 7-9 Big XII play, and all of those losses as of late, they also need to get back to winning. The recent poor stretch has sent them tumbling from a projected 3 to a 4, now to a #7 - where they currently stand.

-

Finally, we get to the back end of the projections, where we had some significant changes as well. Rhode Island has been on a recent skid as well, and with a resume lacking sufficient 'Quad 1' wins, have drifted all the way back to "last 4 in" territory. Arizona State has some quality wins, but they also have some bad losses. I'm not sold on the Sun Devils as much as some out there. I've seen them projected as high as an 8-9, but they don't have much at all in terms of road victories. With a NET of 50, solid SOS of 44, but 28-point & 40-point losses on their resume, that all points far more to a "bubblish" team rather than a lock. For those reasons, the Sun Devils find themselves in the "last 4 in" category as well.

-

They are joined by the Stanford Cardinal, who are into the projected field for the first time. Fresh off a big upset win over Colorado last night, coupled with Cincinnati missing an opportunity that they needed to have at Houston, Stanford is in. The Bearcats now have left themselves with some significant work to do, and they most likely will need to take down Houston in AAC tournament to have a shot at getting back into the field. Through yesterday's games (March 1st), here is a look at my updated NCAA Tournament projections:

-

Source: herosports.com / Kansas is the top overall seed after rising to the top of the Big XII. The Jayhawks haven't lost since early January, and appear to be peaking at the right time.

(Team, followed by conference record & overall record in parentheses)

-

#1 SEEDS

-

KANSAS (15-1, 26-3)*

GONZAGA (15-1, 29-2)*

BAYLOR (14-2, 25-3)

DAYTON (16-0, 27-2)*

-

#2 SEEDS

-

SAN DIEGO STATE (17-1, 28-1)*

KENTUCKY (14-2, 24-5)*

DUKE (13-5, 23-6)

MARYLAND (13-5, 23-6)*

-

#3 SEEDS

-

SETON HALL (13-3, 21-7)*

FLORIDA STATE (14-4, 24-5)

CREIGHTON (11-5, 22-7)

LOUISVILLE (15-4, 24-6)*

-

#4 SEEDS

-

VILLANOVA (11-5, 22-7)

MICHIGAN STATE (12-6, 20-9)

OREGON (11-5, 22-7)

PENN STATE (11-7, 21-8)

-

#5 SEEDS

-

BYU (13-3, 24-7)

OHIO STATE (10-8, 20-9)

COLORADO (10-7, 21-9)

AUBURN (11-5, 24-5)

-

#6 SEEDS

-

WISCONSIN (12-6, 19-10)

ILLINOIS (12-6, 20-9)

IOWA (11-7, 20-9)

MICHIGAN (9-9, 18-11)

-

#7 SEEDS

-

ARIZONA (9-7, 19-10)

WEST VIRGINIA (7-9, 19-10)

BUTLER (8-8, 20-9)

MARQUETTE (8-8, 18-10)

-

#8 SEEDS

-

LSU (11-5, 20-9)

VIRGINIA (13-5, 21-7)

HOUSTON (12-4, 22-7)

TEXAS TECH (9-7, 18-11)

-

#9 SEEDS

-

SAINT MARY'S (11-5, 24-7)

USC (10-7, 21-9)

OKLAHOMA (8-8, 18-11)

PROVIDENCE (10-6, 17-12)

-

#10 SEEDS

-

E. TENNESSEE ST. (16-2, 27-4)*

NORTHERN IOWA (14-4, 25-5)*

FLORIDA (10-6, 18-11)

RUTGERS (9-9, 18-11)

-

#11 SEEDS

-

XAVIER (8-8, 19-10)

UCLA (12-5, 19-11)* $

RICHMOND (12-4, 22-7)

WICHITA STATE (10-6, 22-7)

-

#12 SEEDS

-

LIBERTY (13-3, 27-4)*

SFA (17-1, 26-3)*

INDIANA (8-10, 18-11)# / ARIZONA STATE (10-6, 19-10)#

RHODE ISLAND (12-4, 20-8)# / STANFORD (9-7, 20-9)# $

-

#13 SEEDS

-

YALE (10-2, 22-6)*

WRIGHT STATE (15-3, 25-6)*

NEW MEXICO STATE (15-0, 24-6)*

BELMONT (15-3, 24-7)*

-

#14 SEEDS

-

COLGATE (14-4, 23-8)*

VERMONT (13-2, 23-7)*

AKRON (12-4, 22-7)*

HOFSTRA (14-4, 23-8)*

-

#15 SEEDS

-

WINTHROP (15-3, 21-10)*

N.D. STATE (13-3, 22-8)*

NORTH TEXAS (14-3, 20-10)*

LITTLE ROCK (15-4, 21-9)*

-

#16 SEEDS

-

UC-IRVINE (13-2, 21-10)*

MONTANA (14-4, 18-11)*

SIENA (13-5, 17-10)* / N.C. A&T (11-3, 15-14)*

PRARIE VIEW (13-2, 17-11)* / MERRIMACK (14-4, 20-11)*

-

*-Denotes current conference leaders & the automatic bid associated with winning each league's tournament

-

#-Denotes Last 4 In; "First Four play-in game" participants

-

$-New to the field

Source: pac-12.com / Stanford is into the projected field as the last team in after yesterday's big win over #21 Colorado. A #30 NET has the Cardinal looking good at the moment.

-

LAST 4 IN:

--------------

RHODE ISLAND (12-4, 20-8)

INDIANA (8-10, 18-11)

ARIZONA STATE (10-6, 19-10)

STANFORD (9-7, 20-9)

-

FIRST 4 OUT:

-------------------

N.C. STATE (9-9, 18-11)

MISSISSIPPI STATE (10-6, 19-10)

PURDUE (8-10, 15-14)

CINCINNATI (11-5, 18-10)

-

NEXT:

---------

TEXAS (8-8, 18-11)

ALABAMA (8-8, 16-13)

UTAH STATE (12-6, 23-8)

MEMPHIS (9-7, 20-9)

-

There was plenty to maneuver through, but we made it! This week will obviously be huge in terms of shaping the NCAA tournament field, and for those on the "bubble" as they look to bolster their respective resumes and play themselves into the field. Be sure to check back for plenty of college hoops coverage. As always, I appreciate the support, and would love to get your thoughts in the comments section - who do you have in & who's out?

----

Chris Elgersma

-

You can find me on IG & YouTube @sportsguychris

-

I'll be providing weekly top 25 rankings, NCAA tournament projections, and "bubble" assessments as we get closer to the Big Dance. Be sure to check back for plenty of college hoops coverage & everything else in the world of sports!