Welcome back all! After yesterday's full slate of action, a 2020-2021 college hoops regular season quite unlike any other, is officially in the books! Monday of Championship week has officially arrived. Tickets will be punched, "bubbles" will burst, and teams will have their final opportunities to impress the committee ahead of Selection Sunday.
That brings us to today's 3rd set of NCAA Tournament projections. Before we dive completely in, there were a handful of tickets punched over this past weekend with some of the smaller, mid-major conferences completing their tournaments.
Morehead State became the first entrant after dispatching previously 26-3 Belmont on Saturday night in the OVC Title game. Despite the sparkling record, the Bruins will more-than-likely be left out due to a lacking overall resume. Would I love to see them get a crack at the tournament? Absolutely, but the metrics don't like them much, leaving an uphill battle, and uneasy wait til Selection Sunday.
Loyola-Chicago took care of Drake as the top 2 seeds in the MVC competed for the automatic bid. Winthrop also punched their ticket by dominating Campbell 80-53 to win the Big South. The Eagles head into March Madness at 23-1. Can they make some noise? Liberty is also back in the tournament after sneaking past North Alabama to win the A-Sun.
4 tickets officially punched, 27 more go. Strap-on your seatbelts, it's Championship week! As for the rest of the projected bracket, let's dive into it!
There's not much movement at the top, as Gonzaga heads into the WCC tournament still unbeaten. Baylor further solidified themselves as the second-best team in the land, and Illinois scored a huge road victory at Ohio State to close out the regular season and solidify their spot on the 1-line.
Iowa took advantage of a series of highly-questionable calls late in their game against Wisconsin to solidify themselves as the top 2-seed. SEC regular season Champion Alabama, Houston, and Ohio State continue to round out the 2-line.
Kansas continues their ascent up the seed-line, landing as a 3-seed this week. Big East Champ Villanova, ACC-front runner Virginia, and Arkansas round out the 3-line, with the Razorbacks moving up another seed-line.
Rounding out the top 16 are a slew of Big XII schools on the 4-line. Oklahoma State closed out the regular season with a massive road victory at West Virginia yesterday, sending the Cowboys to the top of the 4-line. West Virginia drops from a 3 to a 4, Texas Tech remains a 4, and Florida State slid back from a 3 to a 4 after stumbling at Notre Dame to close out the regular season yesterday. The Seminoles' loss, coupled with Virginia's win over Louisville, means the Cavaliers are now the top-seed for the ACC tournament.
There were some teams who managed to solidify their cases this past week, and moved more comfortably into the projected bracket. UConn, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, and Michigan State have all went from the "bubble" to barely in, to somewhat "comfortably in". The Spartans scored the biggest resume boost when they took down projected 1-seed & rival Michigan yesterday.
For the other 3, developments at the backend of the bracket have helped solidify their spots. All 3 should end up somewhere in the 9-10 seed range when the bracket is announced on Sunday.
As far as the backend of the projected bracket goes, Colorado State suffered a bit of a blow when they lost at Nevada to close out the regular season. The loss dropped the Rams back to "last 4 bye" territory, and very close to the "last 4 in", play-in games group.
Drake fell to Loyola-Chicago in the MVC Title game, but still finishes up 25-4. The Ramblers are currently ranked 10th in the NET ratings, so you can't really penalize the Bulldogs for the loss. Drake drops back to "last 4 in", but have done enough, with strong enough metrics to be in the field come Sunday.
Joining Drake as the final teams in the bracket, are VCU, Boise State, and Western Kentucky. The Rams have an opportunity to punch their ticket if they can knock off top-seed St. Bonaventure in what should be an excellent matchup in the A-10 Title game on Sunday.
Boise State teatered back to end of the bracket after dropping a pair of games to San Diego State - including their lead atop the Mountain West. The Broncos now have some work to do this week. Finally, WKU may just be a place-holder for now. The Hilltoppers won't get much for 'quality, resume-boosting' opportunities in the Conference USA Tournament. Right now, their resume hinges on a non-conference road victory at Alabama. Which is one of the more impressive non-conference wins for any team out there period.
Xavier is the first team out, as the Mountaineers' had a lackluster finish to the regular season. First, a 15-point loss to Providence wasn't good. But then a victory over Creighton gave them a boost, only to finish with a pair of not-so-good losses to Georgetown & Marquette. With a NET of 57, and only (1) Quad 1 victory, the X still needs to boost the resume to get in.
Meanwhile, Indiana (12-14), Duke (11-11), and Minnesota (13-14) were unable to get must-wins this past week to stay in the hunt. Envisioning a path for any of those teams at this point without winning their respective tournaments, is non-existent. Richmond suffered an early-exit in the A-10 tournament, "bursting" their bubble as well.
On the other hand, Syracuse & St. John's have pulled themselves up off the mat, and right back in to the "bubble" mix. As always, there was a lot to get through, but we made it! Without further ado, here is the 3rd Edition of 2021 NCAA Tournament projections: (I'll be back with more content taking us right up to the Big Dance)
2021 NCAA TOURNAMENT PROJECTIONS
(#-denotes current conference leader and that conference's automatic bid; record in ( ) followed by NET ranking, and record [W-L] in Quad 1 games this season)
(^1)(-1) = indicates movement/changes from last edition
1 GONZAGA (24-0) # 1, 7-0
1 BAYLOR (21-1) # 2, 8-1
1 MICHIGAN (19-3) # 3, 7-2
1 ILLINOIS (20-6) 4, 9-5
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2 IOWA (20-7) 6, 7-5
2 ALABAMA (21-6) # 7, 7-4
2 HOUSTON (21-3) 5, 2-1
2 OHIO STATE (18-8) 9, 7-6
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3 KANSAS (19-8) 14, 6-8 (^1)
3 VILLANOVA (16-5) # 11, 3-3
3 VIRGINIA (17-6) # 13, 4-4
3 ARKANSAS (21-5) 16, 6-4 (^1)
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4 OKLAHOMA STATE (18-7) 30, 8-5 (^2)
4 WEST VIRGINIA (18-8) 23, 6-7 (-1)
4 FLORIDA STATE (15-5) 22, 3-3 (-1)
4 TEXAS TECH (17-9) 17, 4-9
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5 COLORADO (20-7) 12, 3-4
5 TENNESSEE (17-7) 18, 6-5 (-1)
5 TEXAS (17-7) 24, 6-6
5 USC (21-6) 15, 4-3
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6 PURDUE (18-8) 20, 6-6
6 CREIGHTON (18-7) 25, 4-3
6 LOYOLA CHI (24-4) 10, 2-2 ✩ (^1)
6 MISSOURI (15-8) 45, 7-5 (^2)
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7 WISCONSIN (16-11) 26, 4-9
7 BYU (19-5) 19, 3-3
7 OKLAHOMA (14-9) (-1) 33, 5-8
7 SAN DIEGO STATE (20-4) # 21, 0-3
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8 OREGON (19-5) # 32, 3-3
8 CLEMSON (16-6) 36, 3-6
8 VIRGINIA TECH (15-5) 42, 2-2
8 LSU (16-8) 28, 4-7 (^2)
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9 ST. BONAVENTURE (15-4) # 27, 3-2 (^2)
9 FLORIDA (13-8) 29, 5-4 (-1)
9 RUTGERS (14-10) 37, 4-8
9 UCONN (14-6) 31, 3-3 (^2)
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10 UCLA (17-8) 41, 2-6 (-1)
10 MARYLAND (15-12) 34, 4-9 (-2)
10 GEORGIA TECH (15-8) 38, 2-6 (^1)
10 MICHIGAN STATE (15-11) 67, 5-9 (^1)
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11 NORTH CAROLINA (16-9) 39, 2-8
11 LOUISVILLE (13-6) 51, 1-5 (-1)
11 COLORADO STATE (17-5) 50, 2-3 (-1)
11 DRAKE (25-4) 47, 1-2 @
11 VCU (19-6) 35, 2-4 @
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12 WICHITA STATE (15-4) # 65, 2-3
12 WINTHROP (23-1) 55 ✩
12 UCSB (19-4) # 54 (^1)
12 BOISE STATE (18-7) 43, 2-4 @
12 *WKU (18-6) 86, 1-3 @
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13 *MOREHEAD STATE (23-7) ✩
13 WRIGHT STATE (18-5) 72 (-1)
13 LIBERTY (23-5) 83 ✩
13 LA TECH (20-6) # 74
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14 TOLEDO (21-6) # 63
14 ABILENE CHRI (21-3) # 85
14 *COLGATE (12-1) # 8
14 UMBC (14-6) #
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15 UNCG (20-8) # 91
15 *SOUTHERN UTAH (19-3) #
15 GRAND CANYON (15-6) #
15 *NORTHEASTERN (10-8) #
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16 SIENA (12-3) #
16 S DAKOTA ST (16-6) #
16 PRARIE VIEW (14-4) #
16 TEXAS STATE (18-7) #
16 NC A&T (11-10) #
16 BRYANT (14-5) #
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LAST 4 BYES
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MICHIGAN STATE (15-11) 67, 5-9
NORTH CAROLINA (16-9) 39, 2-8
LOUISVILLE (13-6) 51, 1-5
COLORADO STATE (17-5) 50, 2-3
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LAST 4 IN (PLAY-IN GAMES)
----------------
DRAKE (25-4) 47, 1-2
VCU (19-6) 35, 2-4
BOISE STATE (18-7) 43, 2-4
WKU (18-6) 86, 1-3
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FIRST 4 OUT
--------------------
XAVIER (13-7) 57, 1-2 --
SAINT LOUIS (14-6) 44, 2-2
UTAH STATE (18-7) 48, 2-4
SYRACUSE (15-8) 49, 1-6
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NEXT 4 OUT
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ST. JOHN'S (16-10) 68, 2-6
OLE MISS (15-10) 53, 3-4
MEMPHIS (15-7) 52, 0-3
SMU (11-4) 56, 0-3
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BUBBLE "BURST":
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SETON HALL (13-12) 58, 3-7
INDIANA (12-14) 61, 2-11
DUKE (11-11) 60, 2-5
MINNESOTA (13-14) 79, 4-10
RICHMOND (13-8) 70, 3-4
STANFORD (14-12) 71, 4-6
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* - New to the field this week
-- = Dropped out of the field
@ = Denotes Final Four In; Play-In Games Participants
✩ = Conference Tournament Champion; Ticket to the Big Dance officially punched
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Thank you for the support as always. You can find me on IG & YouTube at @sportsguychris and be sure to check out my podcast with my good buddy Mikee:
"The Balls and Beards Podcast" available on Spotify, Apple Pocketcasts, Google Podcasts, Anchor, and Breaker! We keep you up to date on everything in the world of the NFL & NBA!
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