PROJECTING THE 2021 NCAA TOURNAMENT - Final Edition - Including a Pair of "Bid Thieves"
Welcome back all! Selection Sunday has arrived! There was plenty of action across the board on Saturday with another 15 automatic bids to the Big Dance awarded to respective conference tournament champions. That leaves just 5 more automatic bids remaining.
With most of the action in the books, the field is pretty well set. There is only one possible "bid thief" left out there today - Cincinnati. The Bearcats upset Wichita State in the AAC semifinals and simultaneously knocked the Shockers from the bracket. They will take on Houston for the AAC Title, and the Cougars are a no-brainer lock and will be either a 2 or 3 seed regardless of the outcome of this one.
Speaking of "bid thieves" - all eyes were on Georgetown & Oregon State yesterday - and both delivered.
The Hoyas absolutely demolished Creighton in the Big East title game, sending Patrick Ewing's bunch into the field. G-Town went from 9-12 on Wednesday to 13-12 and back in the Big Dance.
Oregon State already upset UCLA & Oregon just to reach the Pac-12 Title game, and then snuck past Colorado 70-68 to steal away another bid from a perspective "bubble" team.
Those two late surprise additions to the projected field bumped Wichita State and Syracuse from the right side of the cutline to "first 4 out". Colorado State is left as the final team in the field, and would drop out if Cincinnati upsets Houston today.
The Rams' road victory over San Diego State is the difference at the moment. Syracuse does not have a "road" victory of note, and Wichita State is hanging their hat on a home victory over Houston (which is a very good one). There is not much separating those at the very backend.
As we countdown the hours until the bracket is revealed on this Selection Sunday, Drake, UCLA, Louisville, and Colorado State find themselves as the last four teams in the field - in that order.
As for other notes, Illinois passed Michigan as the 3rd 1-seed. Oklahoma State remains on the 2-line after a close loss to Texas in the Big XII Title game. Iowa and Ohio State are the top 2-seeds, and are joined by Alabama.
Texas, Houston, Kansas, and Arkansas are the 3-seeds. Rounding out the top 16 in the field are Virginia, West Virginia, Purdue, and Florida State representing the 4-line.
LSU slid up to a 7-seed and will remain there regardless of the outcome of today's showdown with Alabama for the SEC title. St. Bonaventure and VCU are battling for the A-10 crown, and both will remain in the field. VCU is currently in "last 4 byes" territory, and St. Bonaventure even with a loss, would drop no lower than a 10.
As always, there was plenty to get through, but we made it! Without further ado, here is the @sportsguychris Final 2021 NCAA Tournament Projections:
2021 NCAA TOURNAMENT PROJECTIONS
(#-denotes current conference leader and that conference's automatic bid; record in ( ) followed by NET ranking, and record [W-L] in Quad 1 games this season) (via NCAA.com)
(^1)(-1) = indicates movement/changes from last edition
1 GONZAGA (26-0) 1, 8-0 ✩
1 BAYLOR (22-2) 2, 8-2
1 ILLINOIS (22-6) 3, 11-5 ^
1 MICHIGAN (20-4) 4, 8-3
-
2 IOWA (21-8) 6, 8-6
2 OHIO STATE (21-8) 8, 9-6
2 ALABAMA (24-6) 7, 7-4 ☆
2 OKLAHOMA STATE (20-8) 29, 10-6 (^2)
-
3 TEXAS (19-7) 21, 8-6 ✩ (^2)
3 HOUSTON (23-3) # 5, 2-1 (-1)
3 KANSAS (20-8) 11, 7-8
3 ARKANSAS (22-6) 14, 6-5
-
4 VIRGINIA (18-7) 12, 5-4 (-1)
4 WEST VIRGINIA (18-9) 23, 6-7
4 PURDUE (18-9) 22, 6-8 (^2)
4 FLORIDA STATE (16-6) 24, 3-4
-
5 TENNESSEE (18-8) 13, 6-6
5 VILLANOVA (16-6) 16, 5-3 (-2)
5 TEXAS TECH (17-10) 18, 4-10 (-1)
5 COLORADO (22-8) 15, 3-4
-
6 CREIGHTON (20-8) 25, 6-3
6 USC (22-7) 19, 3-4 (-1)
6 LOYOLA CHI (24-4) 10, 2-2 ✩
6 SAN DIEGO STATE (23-4) 18, 1-3 ✩ (^1)
-
7 OREGON (20-6) 34, 2-3 (^1)
7 BYU (20-6) 20, 3-4
7 MISSOURI (15-9) 47, 7-6 (-1)
7 LSU (18-9) 28, 5-7 (^1)
-
8 WISCONSIN (17-12) 26, 5-10 (-1)
8 ST. BONAVENTURE (16-4) 27, 3-2 ☆ (^1)
8 CLEMSON (16-7) 41, 3-6
8 UCONN (15-7) 30, 4-4 (^1)
-
9 FLORIDA (14-9) 31, 5-5
9 OKLAHOMA (15-10) 37, 5-9 (-2)
9 GEORGIA TECH (17-8) 33, 3-6 ✩ (^1)
9 NORTH CAROLINA (18-10) 32, 3-9 (^2)
-
10 RUTGERS (15-11) 38, 4-9 (-1)
10 VIRGINIA TECH (15-6) 48, 2-3 (-2)
10 MARYLAND (16-13) 35, 4-10
10 MICHIGAN STATE (15-12) 67, 5-10
-
11 *UTAH STATE (20-8) 39, 2-5 -
11 VCU (19-7) 36, 2-4
11 DRAKE (25-4) 45, 1-2 @
11 UCLA (17-9) 46, 2-6 (-1) @
11 LOUISVILLE (13-7) 56, 1-6 (-1) @
11 COLORADO STATE (18-6) 51, 2-4 @
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12 *OREGON STATE (17-12) 97, 5-5 ✩
12 WINTHROP (23-1) 55 ✩
12 *GEORGETOWN (13-12) 64, 3-9 ✩
12 UCSB (22-4) 54 ✩
-
13 LIBERTY (23-5) ✩
13 MOREHEAD STATE (23-7) ✩
13 ABILENE CHRI (23-3) ✩ (^1)
13 *NORTH TEXAS (17-9) ✩
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14 *OHIO (16-7) 87 ✩
14 COLGATE (14-1) 9 ☆
14 *CLEVELAND STATE (19-7) ✩
14 *EASTERN WA (16-7) ✩
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15 GRAND CANYON (16-6) ✩
15 *HARTFORD (15-8) ✩
15 UNCG (21-8) 91 ✩
15 *DREXEL (12-7) ✩
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16 *IONA (12-5) ✩
16 *ORAL ROBERTS (16-10) ✩
16 *NORFOLK STATE (16-7) ✩
16 *TX SOUTHERN (16-8) ✩
16 *APPALACHIAN STATE (17-11) ✩
16 *MOUNT ST. MARY'S (12-10) ✩
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LAST 4 BYES
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10 MARYLAND (16-13) 33, 5-10
10 MICHIGAN STATE (15-12) 70, 5-11
11 UTAH STATE (20-8) 37, 2-5
11 VCU (19-6) 35, 2-4
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LAST 4 IN (PLAY-IN GAMES)
--------------
11 DRAKE (25-4) 43, 1-2 @
11 UCLA (17-9) 45, 2-6 (-1) @
11 LOUISVILLE (13-7) 56, 1-6 (-1) @
11 COLORADO STATE (18-6) 51, 2-4 @
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FIRST 4 OUT
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WICHITA STATE (16-5) 72, 2-3
SYRACUSE (16-9) 40, 1-7
BOISE STATE (18-8) 50, 2-4
SAINT LOUIS (14-6) 43, 2-2
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NEXT 4 OUT (BUBBLE "BURST")
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XAVIER (13-8) 59, 1-3
WKU (20-7) 86, 1-3 --
DUKE (13-11) 49, 2-5
OLE MISS (16-11) 53, 3-5
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* - New to the field this week
-- = Dropped out of the field
@ = Denotes Final Four In; Play-In Games Participants
✩ = Conference Tournament Champion; Ticket to the Big Dance officially punched
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Thank you for the support as always. You can find me on IG & YouTube at @sportsguychris and be sure to check out my podcast with my good buddy Mikee:
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