Source: nytimes.com / Projecting the NCAA tournament is anything but easy these days, but with just a week left in the regular season, the field is starting to take shape.

Projecting the NCAA Tournament with @sportsguychris - 4th Edition

Happy Monday everyone and welcome back to another edition of projecting the NCAA tournament with @sportsguychris. We had one eventful weekend in college hoops, with several noteworthy results having a direct impact on the projected bracket as we edge ever closer to Conference Tournament time. Following this past weekend's games, everyone is down to their last 1 or 2 regular season games. Each game is of the utmost importance going forward, as one win - or one bad loss - can be the difference between finding yourself in the field come Selection Sunday, or watching the big dance from home.

The "Bubble" is really starting to take shape at the moment, and the whole debate between quality mid-majors with sparkling win-loss records, but lacking in overall quality wins versus "power" conference teams that are around .500 is really starting to heat up. That is especially true after Indiana went ahead and knocked off Michigan State on Saturday, giving the Hoosiers and improbable sweep of the Spartans this season. Throw-in a home win over Wisconsin, and non-conference wins over Butler, Louisville, and Marquette (with the latter two really holding up well) and many pundits believe that is enough to put the Hoosiers in the field at just 15-14 overall. I'm not quite ready to thrust Indiana into the field yet, but the win over Sparty this weekend was huge for their chances. The Hoosiers finish up at Illinois and then at home against Rutgers. While neither of those games will give Indiana the last boost they need, a loss in either game would be very damaging. If Indiana wins those two and heads into Big TEN tournament play at 17-14 overall, they will be in a good position to snag a bid away come Selection Sunday - but for now, they still have work to do.

Source: knoxnews.com / Tennessee jumped all over Kentucky on Saturday and re-claimed their spot on the 1-line.

Now back to the actual "projected" field as it stands today. Tennessee got their revenge over Kentucky on Saturday, thrashing the Wildcats by 19 in Knoxville. The victory shot the Vols back up to a 1-seed, and dropped Kentucky down to the 2-line. Gonzaga remained the top overall seed after picking up two more blowout wins to finish up the regular season at 29-2. The Zags will be heavy favorites heading into the WCC tournament, and appear to have the top overall seed wrapped up. Virginia remains at the 1-line as they continue to have just 2 losses on the season - both coming to Duke. The Dukies remain on the 1-line as well. Their stumbles after the Williamson injury seem to have subsided and the Blue Devils absolutely crushed Miami FL by 30 over the weekend. Duke holds onto to that final 1-seed for now, but North Carolina, LSU, Michigan, and Kentucky are all closing in on the 1-line.

UNC, Kentucky, Michigan State, and Michigan are the current 2-seeds. LSU rose to the top of the 3-line, and are quickly knocking on the door for a 2. Texas Tech continues to roll along in the Big XII, as they moved up a line and join LSU on the current 3-line. Houston slides down a spot to a 3-seed following their loss to UCF over the weekend, and Purdue moved up from a 4 to a 3 following their absolute demolition of Ohio State on Saturday. The Boilermakers are now in sole possession of first place in the Big TEN, a half game clear of Michigan.

Source: sportsday.dallasnews.com / Texas Tech keeps rolling along and the Red Raiders are now 24-5 overall and atop the Big XII.

Marquette and Nevada both suffered losses over the weekend, and both dropped a line to 4-seeds. The Golden Eagles lost at home to Creighton yesterday, and Nevada lost to Utah State on the road on Saturday night. The 5-seeds held firm this week with the exception of Virginia Tech. The Hokies are now 22-6 overall after another solid week, and moved up to the 5-line. Iowa State suffered a blowout loss on Saturday at Texas - a huge win for the Longhorns, and dropped from a 5 to a 6 as a result. Buffalo and Washington both moved up a line this week and join the Cyclones on the 6-line. Iowa suffered a lackluster double-digit loss at home to lowly Rutgers over the weekend, and that dropped the Hawkeyes a line. Auburn slid up a spot and both find themselves as a projected 7-seeds at the moment.

St. John's dropped a pair including a loss @ DePaul yesterday, leaving the Red Storm with a bit more to do down the stretch. None-the-less, the resume is still plenty strong and has them comfortably in the tournament. At just 8-9 in Big East play though, the season-ending showdown at Xavier on Saturday now seems to have a bit more weight to it. Maryland dropped a seed-line as well after getting blown out by Penn State and then losing at Michigan yesterday. The Terrapins have a fine resume, but have stumbled a bit of late. Wofford is now in single-digit seed territory, and continue to look good as they are up to a 9-seed. Central Florida joins Wofford, VCU, and Baylor on the 9-line this week, getting a big boost following their massive road victory at Houston on Saturday. The Knights are firmly in the tournament, and could easily continue to move up the seed-line going forward.

Source: gohuskies.com / Washington continues to cruise along in the Pac 12, and has worked their way up to a projected 6-seed.

The backend of the bracket is still a bit of a mess to sort through at the moment. Alabama remains in "last four-in" territory, but are looking the best out of that group at the moment. Minnesota has slid back to third to last in, and at just 8-10 in the Big TEN, including a 2-6 stretch in their last 8, the Golden Gophers need to get a couple of victories here to closeout the season to feel good about their prospects heading into the Big TEN tournament. They are joined by fellow Big TEN foe Ohio State. The Buckeyes are just all over the place these days. First they trounced projected mid-range seed Iowa by 20 during the week, putting up 90 points in the process, then went on the road for a big showdown on Saturday and got absolutely smoked by Purdue. OSU didn't even show up and honestly are lucky they didn't lose by 50. One loss won't make or break a season, but the timing of that egg-laying was not good for the Buckeyes and has dropped them all the way back to second-to-last team in. The good news for the Buckeyes? After a road trip to Northwestern (which does nothing for the resume), they finish up with Wisconsin at home on Sunday. That game is starting to look more and more like a must-win.

Source: gophersports.com / The Golden Gophers still have work to do before they can feel safe about celebrating a tournament bid...

Oklahoma remains the final team in the bracket, and while I do believe that the Sooners will be in the field, they still need to win one of their last two conference games (Kansas & Kansas State) so they can at least pickup 1 quality, marque win within Big XII play. Lose both of those games, and the Sooners will be on the outside looking in come Big XII tournament play. Utah State played themselves into the field with that huge victory at Nevada on Saturday night. They took Belmont's place in the field. And while I still like the Bruins, they don't have a victory near as impressive as the one Utah State just picked up, so for the time being, Belmont drops to "first four-out" territory, but could still very easily win their conference tournament and punch their ticket that way.

Furman (13-5, 24-6), Clemson (7-9, 17-12), and Indiana (6-12, 15-14) join Belmont as the group of "first four-out" teams. Georgetown (8-8, 18-11) is coming on as well and would be the next team. Beyond the Hoyas, there just isn't much left out there in "Bubble" land. Both Davidson and Dayton suffered bad losses in the A-10 over the weekend, leaving their at-large chances basically non-existent and rendering the A-10 a one-bid conference should VCU go on to win the conference tournament.

Without further ado, here is the latest @sportsguychris updated NCAA tournament projections:

1 - seeds: *Gonzaga (29-2), *Virginia (26-2), Tennessee (26-3), Duke (25-4)

2 - seeds: North Carolina (24-5), Kentucky (24-5), Michigan State (23-6), Michigan (26-4)

3 - seeds: *LSU (24-5), *Texas Tech (24-5), Houston (27-2), *Purdue (22-7)

4 - seeds: *Marquette (23-6), *Nevada (26-3), Florida State (23-6), Kansas (22-7)

5 - seeds: Wisconsin (20-9), Kansas State (22-7), *Cincinnati (25-4), Virginia Tech (22-6)

6 - seeds: Villanova (22-8), Iowa State (20-9), *Buffalo (26-3), *Washington (23-6)

7 - seeds: Iowa (21-8), Mississippi State (21-8), Auburn (20-9), Maryland (21-9)

8 - seeds: Ole MIss (19-10), St. John's (20-10), Syracuse (19-10), Louisville (19-11)

9 - seeds: UCF (22-6), *Wofford (26-4), *VCU (23-6), Baylor (19-10)

Source: app.com / Seton Hall has went from safely in and a mid-range seed to a current 10-seed. A non-conference win over Kentucky continues to do wonders for the Pirates' overall resume.

10 - seeds: N.C. State (20-9), Seton Hall (16-12), Florida (17-12), Texas (16-13)

11 - seeds: Arizona State (20-9), Temple (21-8), TCU (18-11), Utah State (24-6)

12 - seeds: *New Mexico State (26-4), *Murray State (25-4)

[play-in game \ first round \ last four-in]

Alabama (17-12) / Minnesota (18-11)

[play-in game \ first round \ last four-in]

Ohio State (18-11) / Oklahoma (18-11)

13 - seeds: *Lipscomb (23-6), *Hofstra (25-6), *Vermont (23-6), *Yale (19-6)

14 - seeds: *UC-Irvine (25-5), *Old Dominion (23-6), *South Dakota State (24-7), *Bucknell (19-10)

15 - seeds: *Montana (21-7), *Wright State (19-12), *UL-Chicago (19-12), *Texas State (23-6)

16 - seeds: *Radford (20-10), *Sam Houston State (20-9)

[play-in game \ first round \ last four automatic qualifiers]

*Norfolk State (18-11) / *St. Francis (PA) (16-12)

[play-in game \ first round \ last four automatic qualifiers]

*Prarie View A&M (16-12) / *Iona (14-15)

* - current conference leader (denotes automatic bid associated with that conference)

One notable takeaway from the current projected bracket are all of the quality, intriguing, matchups in the 7 vs 10 & 8 vs 9 games. As it currently stands, Iowa vs Texas; Mississippi State vs Seton Hall; Auburn vs N.C. State; and Maryland vs Florida would be the 7/10 matchups. Ole Miss vs Baylor; St. John's vs VCU; Syracuse vs Wofford; and Louisville vs UCF would be the 8/9 matchups. Talk about toss-ups!

Source: nbcsports.com / Temple still has some work to do following a loss at Memphis during the week. A home-win over Houston and non-conference victory over Davidson comprise the Owls' resume at the moment...

We all know the importance of this week's coming games, each team has just one or two more opportunities to make an impression on the committee before Conference tournaments begin. A win … or loss … could be the difference in moving up or down a seed-line or even getting in the field to begin with. Make sure to check back as the week goes on for plenty of college hoops coverage! As always, I would love to hear your thoughts below and thanks for your support - happy reading & writing!!