Welcome back all! Earlier tonight the CFP committee released their next set of rankings. The two biggest takeaways from the latest edition are the flip-flop at the top with Ohio State taking the #1 spot and LSU dropping to 2, and Baylor jumping five spots and into the top 10. With the Bears' sudden jump to #9, they are the perfect team to profile next.
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Last week I started profiling teams that still had a chance to reach the College Football Playoff. So far, we've covered Utah, Oklahoma, and Minnesota - all fellow 10-1 teams - and as it just so happens, the teams ranked 6, 7, & 8, respectively, in tonight's latest CFP rankings. Baylor seemed to be an afterthought after blowing a large lead to Oklahoma two weeks ago, but after bouncing-back with a win over Texas, coupled with Oregon's surprising loss at Arizona State, the Bears once again have life - and a path to the CFP. Let's take a look at what Baylor has been able to accomplish to this point:
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BAYLOR (10-1 Overall, 7-1 Big XII)
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Rankings:
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CFP (#9)
AP (#11)
Coaches (#10)
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Schedule
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vs Stephen F. Austin (3-9) (FCS) W 56-17
vs UT-San Antonio (4-7) W 63-14
@ Rice (2-9) W 21-13
vs Iowa State (7-4) W 23-21
@ Kansas State (7-4) W 31-12
vs Texas Tech (4-7) W 33-30 2OT
@ Oklahoma State (8-3) W 45-27
vs West Virginia (4-7) W 17-14
@ TCU (5-6) W 29-23 3OT
vs Oklahoma (10-1) L 31-34
vs Texas (6-5) W 24-10
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Points Scored Per Game: (33.9)
Points Allowed Per Game: (19.5)
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Team Statistics (Current National Rank):
Total Offense: (40th)
Total Defense: (41st)
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Efficiency Ratings:
FEI (Fremeau Efficiency Index): (17th)
TE (ESPN.com Team Efficiency): (17th)
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A look at the Bears' resume shows a team that played a weak non-conference schedule (a la Minnesota except even worse), but on the other hand, has four victories to date over teams with a winning record. With two of those coming on the road & holding up well - a 31-12 victory at 7-4 Kansas State & probably their most impressive win - 45-27 @ 8-3 Oklahoma State, Baylor's resume has actually improved a bit in the past couple of weeks. Their one loss is not a bad one, albeit a painful one to blow leads of 25 & 21 at home to Oklahoma.
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The Bears' extremely weak non-conference schedule certainly merits scrutiny, and their total team stats & efficiency ratings don't quite stack up to the other contenders either, but they still have a path to the playoff. There are no guarantees, but assuming they get past Kansas in Lawrence this Saturday, they will have an opportunity to avenge that Oklahoma loss in a rematch with the Sooners in the Big XII Title game. Win that one against a top-10 ranked, 1-loss Oklahoma team, and then get a little help in the form of Utah losing either to Colorado or Oregon in the Pac-12 Title game, and Baylor very well could find themselves in the final four.
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Of course they would need LSU & Ohio State to take care of business as well, but it's not that tough to envision a very realistic scenario where the final spot comes down to Baylor & possibly Alabama or Utah. That would be a very interesting conversation. At any rate, the Bears could do themselves a favor and look as good as possible against lowly 3-8 Kansas this weekend- who have had a few, but not many sparks under first year Head Coach Les Miles. The pathway is there, and it might not be as unrealistic as many believe it to be.
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