NCAA / college
College Basketball through 3 weeks
Fun fact: I predict every single game of the Men's College Basketball season. I'm not sure how many other people do this, or even if anyone would do this. The obvious reason to that is why would anyone? Usually when people find out that I do this, they tell me how it's a huge waste of time, and that there are so many other things I could be doing instead. It may be a waste of time, but I do it simply because I love to. It's not just for the satisfaction of predicting upsets or big matchups, but it's also a great way to stay current with all the teams and how they're performing. This picture shows how I'm doing after the first 3 weeks (games through 11-25-18): Shown above is the format I use to keep track of my correct and incorrect picks. As you can see, there have already been 1,166 games this year, which is including games where D1 teams played non-D1's. I'm currently predicting 79.85% of games correctly, which I'd say is pretty good. Like I said, this does include some freebies where D1 teams take advantage of easy scheduled games against non-D1's (although there have been a couple of non-D1's that have won). I'm 85.27% correct for games where an AP Top 25 team has played, with 110 correct picks and 19 incorrect. There have been a good number of upsets that I've predicted, with my best two probably being Connecticut beating #15 Syracuse, and Buffalo beating #13 West Virginia. On the other hand, a bunch of the 19 incorrect picks were games that I predicted would be an upset but the AP Top 25 team ended up prevailing. 9 out of 13 (69.23%) for Top 25 vs Top 25 games is pretty good, but I hope to improve upon this. Some of the games are toss ups though with the competition being so great, so they can be hard to get right. As I mentioned though, predicting all of these games- especially the top level games- are fun, and makes watching them more intense. Next is a picture of my predictions, broken up by week. This chart is part of the same document I have in Google Sheets, but it breaks down my picks by week. Obviously, the first week seems to be a much higher correct pick %, and that's due to the D1 vs Non-D1 games as I mentioned before. Opening day of the NCAA season is usually loaded with a ton of these less competitive games, and there are a ton more scattered through the first week. Additionally, the data is very different for games where Top 25 teams played. I was 40/43 in the first week, but this is because all the top teams load their first couple games with "easy" games. The next two weeks my percentage falls in Top 25 games, due to the games becoming increasingly competitive, such as early season tournaments. It will be interesting to see how my predictions continue throughout the year, and I'll continue to do weekly or bi-weekly updates if you guys want... let me know in the comments! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I hope you enjoyed learning about this crazy hobby of mine, and I'll finish up this post with all of the upsets that have happened so far this year. I'll also display all of the "big games" that have happened so far (Top 25 vs Top 25). TOP 25 UPSETS:UNC Greensboro vs #23 LSU WINNER: UNC GreensboroBuffalo vs #13 West Virginia WINNER: Buffalo#18 Michigan vs #8 Villanova WINNER: #18 Michigan #24 Marquette vs Indiana WINNER: Indiana#15 Syracuse vs Connecticut WINNER: ConnecticutFurman vs #8 Villanova WINNER: FurmanArizona St. vs #15 Mississippi St. WINNER: Arizona St.Lipscomb vs #18 TCU WINNER: Lipscomb#1 Duke vs #3 Gonzaga WINNER: #3 Gonzaga#16 Clemson vs Creighton WINNER: Creighton#7 North Carolina vs Texas WINNER: TexasVillanova vs #14 Florida St. WINNER: VillanovaOklahoma St. vs #19 LSU WINNER: Oklahoma St. TOP 25 vs TOP 25 Outcomes #1 Kansas vs #10 Michigan St WINNER: #1 Kansas #4 Duke vs #2 Kentucky WINNER: #4 Duke#11 Auburn vs #25 Washington WINNER: #11 Auburn#18 Michigan vs #8 Villanova WINNER: #18 Michigan#15 Syracuse vs #13 Oregon WINNER: #13 Oregon#16 Virginia Tech vs #23 Purdue WINNER: #16 Virginia Tech#8 Auburn vs #1 Duke WINNER: #1 Duke#1 Duke vs #3 Gonzaga WINNER: #3 Gonzaga#17 UCLA vs #11 Michigan St. WINNER: #11 Michigan St.#25 Wisconsin vs #4 Virginia WINNER: #4 Virginia#7 North Carolina vs #17 UCLA WINNER: #7 North Carolina#19 LSU vs #14 Florida St. WINNER: #14 Florida St.#5 Tennessee vs #2 Kansas WINNER: #2 Kansas ******************************************************************************************** That's all for my post, I hope you guys enjoyed! Make sure to let me know your thoughts in the comments, and whether or not you want me to have occasional posts about my predictions. Also, let me know if there is any team or player you'd want me to do a specific post about! I could also share the document to anyone interested in following along with my picks. Thanks, and please upvote and comment if you enjoyed!
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