Eliud KIPCHOGE KEN 02:01.39

Mo FARAH GBR 02:05.11

Tola Shura KITATA ETH 02:04.59

Wilson KIPSANG KEN 02:03.13
Mosinet GEREMEW ETH 02:04.00
Leule GEBRSELASSIE ETH 02:04.02
Tamirat TOLA ETH 02:04.06
Abraham KIPTUM KEN 2:05:26
Mule WASIHUN ETH 02:04.37
Daniel WANJIRU KEN 02:05.21

In the last article we talked about the three possible runner ups, but there are other Kenyan and Ethiopian champions lining up to shake the pole positions or eventually take the lead. Marathon and winning is business, so we won't know until it happens, who is running to train, let's say only a half marathon or a 30km tempo, muling the lead group forward. However these lads are capable of increasing pace for periods, what would be unsustainable long term for most runners, except Kipchoge. If a lot of mad Surging will go on and Kipchoge will just push a 2:02:30 pace all the way, he will eat up the field. If tactics will play, then all the runners have chance if they practiced a long final surge followed by a finishing kick.

Kipsang is on and off. He hasn't run a sub 60 half since 2012 and his DNFs and marathon results are all over the place. His potential however is always there cannot write it down !

Mosinet GEREMEW - 10 years younger than the others. No fear, possibly no problems ! In 2018 he followed a very standard periodisation. Marathon / Half / 10km / Half / Marathon. 2:04:00 and 2:05:14 ! He is somebody hungry and he will definitely be up there !

Leule GEBRSELASSIE - He ran only two marathons and both are in the 2:04 range. Both were in 2018 ! He focused on shorter road distances including 10 15 20k and some half marathons. Looking at his progression, he has very steady results. I think if he runs a smart race, he is a good blackhorse to bet on ! Young, steady and smart !

Tamirat TOLA - In 2015 he cooked his season with a final DNF at Berlin. While Olympic running is not about speed, but about medals and unfortunately a sit back, stay fresh and finish fast mentality, I think he overdid his prep and could have done better. While Mo Farah, the winner, hasn't run a lot of sub 27min 10000m, Tola did it twice just before the Olympic event. That is too much ! He finished 1sec behind Farah to sit on the 3rd level of the podium. In 2017 he already started focusing on the Marathon and in 2018 he ran two of them too PRing in the first one at 2:04 but messing up in New York at 2:08. That was a harder course of course. I am not sure. Of course, chances are, but his seasons and progression looks more of a chaser than a leader this year. He has to be the freshest and fittest to be up there !

Abraham KIPTUM - He ran a recent half marathon WR at 58:18. Speed and a very good age are on his side. Not too young, not too old. 30 exactly ! His WR was a surprise, but it gives confidence. While he wouldn't be my first bet, If he starts out too fast, he can pretty much destroy everybody who follows except 2-3 guys. Hope not to see him explode !

Mule WASIHUN - Every year since 2012 he ran 1min faster for half marathon. Starting at 1:06 and in 2018 he is at 59:44. Same for the Marathon . 2:10 in 2015 then by learning he went down to 2:04:37 in 2018. He will sure be up in the MIX ! 1993 born, so his body is still in tip top shape !

Daniel WANJIRU - He kind of left his speed in 2016. Last years London was a miss at 2:10. He is here, but in my opinion he will be muling for 10 to 21km and working for someone. Will see !

NCAA / london marathon elites

London Marathon Men's Predictions P2

London Marathon Men's Predictions P2

London Marathon Men's Predictions P2