NCAA / preview

Welcome back all! We have a full, busy Saturday slate of college hoops action ahead of us. With teams throughout the top 25 going at it, and some important matchups for several "bubble" teams, today's slate will have a big impact on how the NCAA tournament shakes out. I've got you covered with three picks that I love today, as teams throughout the country jockey for tournament position. It's a busy day of college hoops, so let's jump right into it: - UCLA (16-11) @ 18 COLORADO (21-6) -10.0 - The Bruins come in red-hot having won 4 straight, and 6 of 7 overall. Included in those victories are a home victory over these very same Buffaloes back on January 30th, an impressive 65-52 road victory at Arizona on February 8th, and another double-digit road victory two nights ago at Utah. The Bruins' early-season non-conference struggles appear to be well in the rearview, as each of their final four games represent "quality" win opportunities. - On the other side, Colorado squeaked one out over a solid USC team two nights ago in Boulder, 70-66. They boast solid metrics, and an impressive non-conference victory over #5 Dayton - one of the Flyers' only two losses on the season. Taking a look at what they have done at home as of late, the trend would suggest a close one today. In addition to Thursday night's 4-point victory, they defeated Stanford by 7 and Cal by 6 in their previous two homes games. UCLA is playing much better than both of those teams as of late, and with their improvements defensively, have the potential to push the Buffaloes in this one. - PREDICTION: - I like the Bruins to stay hot and to keep it close in this one. The recent trends for both of these teams would suggest a closer game in Boulder today. Colorado survived a back-and-forth affair with USC two night's ago, and today's matchup has the potential to be the same kind of game. The Bruin's 11-point victory at Utah two nights ago means they should come in feeling pretty good about themselves, and with a renewed confidence after the recent hot streak. Take UCLA plus the points, this game has all the makings to be a great one, and the Bruins need this one far more than the Buffs… - UCLA +10.0 - NORTH CAROLINA (10-16) @ 11 LOUISVILLE (22-5) -9.0 - It's been a surprisingly rough go of it for UNC thus far. Despite early non-conference victories over Alabama & Oregon (suggesting this team has the ability to knock off quality teams despite their eye-sore record), they've struggled mightily in ACC play. They lost their first 5 ACC games before finally getting their first league win. As of late, they have been playing much better, however. They have lost 5 straight going back to February 1st, but if you take a closer look, you'll see that they've actually played much better over that time period. Included in that slate was a 1-point loss to BC, a 65-59 loss at a very good Florida State team, in which the Tar Heels were in the game the entire way, the 2-point loss to Duke at home, in which the Dukies converted a pair of miracles to somehow steal that one, and then their last two games, a 2-point home loss to an improving Virginia team, and a 1-point loss at Notre Dame on Monday. - Louisville on the other hand, had a rough week last week when they dropped a pair of road games to Georgia Tech & Clemson - the latter of which was a 15-point blowout. The Cardinals were bad offensively in both of those games, scoring just 58 & 62, and their defensive performance against the Tigers was their worst of the season. They bounced-back with a big victory over Syracuse on Wednesday night, in a game in which they were much better on both sides of the ball - putting up 90 in the 24-point rout. Star forward Jordan Nwora finally got some help against the Orange, as five different Cardinals all scored in double-figures, with Nwora leading the way with 17 points & 7 rebounds. - PREDICTION: - The Cardinals have been all-over as of late, and while the victory over Syracuse Wednesday night was impressive, the Orange have struggled against quality teams all season long. North Carolina will come into the game knowing they've been right there in all of their games as of late, so they should have a bit of confidence that may have been lacking earlier in the ACC schedule. Louisville has the ability to score 90 or score in the mid-50s depending which offense shows up. The Cardinals' recent inconsistency has me gobbling up the points in this one. While I don't believe Louisville is in danger of losing this one, I think UNC can keep it to single-digits once again. - NORTH CAROLINA +9.0 - MICHIGAN (17-9) @ PURDUE (14-13) -4.0 - The Wolverines come into this one red-hot, having won 4 straight, and 6 of their last 7 to go from just 2-6 in league play and at the bottom of the Big TEN, to 9-7 in the top-rated conference in college basketball. They've went from out of the tournament, to the "bubble", to firmly in during that stretch, and have took down several quality teams along the way, including Michigan State, Indiana, and a pair of victories over Rutgers. They've won in a variety of ways during that recent hot-streak, completely annihilating Indiana 89-64, and then gutting out a tough, defensive battle in their last game, 60-52 at Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights came into that one with a perfect 17-0 home record, as the Wolverines became the first team to knock off Rutgers on their home floor this season. - Meanwhile, Purdue comes into this one very much on the "bubble", but at just 14-13 needing to put in some work down the stretch. The Boilermakers are an interesting test case for the committee, as they own sparkling metrics, including a top 7 strength of schedule, despite the 13 losses. They are also one of the teams with the most drastic home/away splits out there. They have been nearly unbeatable at home, owning uber-impressive home blowout victories over #20 Iowa (104-68!), Wisconsin (70-51), Michigan State (71-42), and an impressive non-conference rout of Virginia 69-40. At the same rate, they've also suffered an embarrassing 14-point road loss to last-place Nebraska, a 63-37 complete stinker at Illinois, and a 16-point rout @ Ohio State a week ago. - PREDICTION: - Purdue is in desperate need of a victory after dropping their last 3. A loss would drop them to 14-14, and into the "the committee would be making history" territory for an at-large bid. That's never a position you want to be in. Despite the fortress they've seemingly built at home, the Wolverines just showed what they are capable of when they picked up a hard-fought 8-point win @ Rutgers. As previously noted, the Scarlet Knights were basically unbeatable at home. Michigan will come in the more confident team as they appear to just be hitting their stride at the right time. The Boilers are at home, but the 4-point spread is a bit of a surprise. The Wolverines have been outstanding as of late, and I expect that to continue today against a Purdue team that has been up-and-down & all-over-the-place to this point. Don't be surprised if Michigan guts out another tough road victory… - MICHIGAN +4.0 ---- Be sure to checkout today's video, giving you a complete rundown of all of today's big Saturday slate of college hoops action: - https://youtu.be/BRKcGAPMFy4 - Chris Elgersma - You can find me on IG & YouTube @sportsguychris - I'll be providing weekly top 25 rankings, NCAA tournament projections, and "bubble" assessments as we get closer to the Big Dance. Be sure to check back for plenty of college hoops coverage & everything else in the world of sports!