NCAA / tua tagovailoa

Welcome back all & a very Happy Thanksgiving to everyone! In today's Turkey Day post, I'll be continuing with college football team profiles for those who still have a chance to reach the College Football Playoff. So far we've covered the likes of Utah, Minnesota, Oklahoma, and Baylor. All are 10-1, and three of the four have at least one 'high-profile' victory on their respective resumes to this point. That is the sticking point with today's team profile - lack of a quality win on the resume. - The Alabama Crimson Tide have been a mainstay at #5 in the College Football Playoff rankings. While the Tide have been locked into that 5-spot ever since their loss to LSU a few weeks ago, the general consensus out there is that Bama is just a place-holder at the moment, and will get jumped by a 1-loss Pac-12 or Big XII Champion. The arguments for & against the Tide are both compelling. Saturday's Iron Bowl showdown at Auburn will give them a chance for a much-needed 'marque' win, and it comes on the road. With no chance at playing in a conference title game, however, a victory over the Tigers still might not be enough of a boost to their resume to get into the final four. So, just how close are the Tide to sneaking into the final four? Well it may largely depend on what happens in other games this weekend, but let's take a look at what Alabama has accomplished to this point in the 2019 season: - - ALABAMA (10-1 Overall, 6-1 SEC) - Rankings: - CFP (#5) AP (#5) Coaches (#5) - Schedule - vs Duke (4-7) W 42-3 vs New Mexico State (2-9) W 62-10 @ South Carolina (4-7) W 47-23 vs Southern Miss (7-4) W 49-7 vs Ole Miss (4-7) W 59-31 @ Texas A&M (7-4) W 47-28 vs Tennessee (6-5) W 35-13 vs Arkansas (2-9) W 48-7 vs LSU (11-0) L 41-46 @ Mississippi State (5-6) W 38-7 vs Western Carolina (3-9) (FCS) W 66-3 - Points Scored Per Game: (48.5) Points Allowed Per Game: (16.2) - Team Statistics (Current National Rank): Total Offense: (7th) Total Defense: (16th) - Efficiency Ratings: FEI (Fremeau Efficiency Index): (3rd) TE (ESPN.com Team Efficiency): (3rd) - - A look at the Crimson Tide's team profile shows a team that has been extremely efficient and dominant - currently ranking 3rd in the nation in both FEI & TE, and outscoring their opponents by a whopping 32.3 points per game. Those numbers are once-again outstanding, just as we've become accustomed to seeing year-in & year-out in Tuscaloosa under Nick Saban. The Tide's 48.5 points per game ranks 2nd to only Oklahoma, and the defense, while not quite the same that we've been used to seeing, has still held opponents to single-digits in five games. And that is where the 2019 Crimson Tide have come under scrutiny - the opponents. - There is no denying that Bama has been dominant in every game this year, except for the LSU game. The problem is, the resume just doesn't offer much to this point. With only three victories over teams with a winning record (7-4 Southern Miss, 6-5 Tennessee, and 7-4 Texas A&M), zero wins against the top 25, and only three road games out of 11 on the docket, the overall resume is severely lacking. That is especially true when comparing the Tide to teams like Oklahoma & Baylor who are getting a boost from an improving Big XII conference. Baylor has a road-win against an 8-win top 25 ranked Oklahoma State team, and Oklahoma of course, has the road victory at that very 10-1 Baylor squad. - - Throw-in the unfortunate season-ending injury to one of the nation's best players in QB Tua Tagovailoa, and the Tide's chances of reaching the CFP seem middling at best. Backup Mac Jones has been great in his two starts, but victories over Arkansas, who hasn't won a SEC game since 2017 & FCS 3-win team Western Carolina, doesn't really count for a whole lot. Win in a bitter rivalry game, in a tough atmosphere against a top-15 team with an elite defense, and that perception changes instantly. The problem is, even if Alabama takes down Auburn, the Tigers will finish 8-4, and will that be good enough to get into the playoff without a conference title game appearance? Most likely not. Especially since Utah will most likely get an opportunity for a big-time win against a more-than-likely 10-2 Oregon team in the Pac-12 Title game, and Baylor & Oklahoma are set to play each other again in the Big XII title game, where both will be some combination of 11-1 or 10-2. - The one argument for the Tide is that they probably have the best loss of any team out there. To #1 (or #2) LSU by 5 points. That is a better loss than Minnesota's (to 8-3 Iowa, albeit on the road) & Oklahoma's (to 7-4 Kansas State). That being said, with Tua's injury, the lack of a 'marque' win on the resume, and a non-conference schedule that provides nothing in terms of a resume boost (sorry but Duke, New Mexico State, Southern Miss, & FCS Western Carolina is not much better than Minnesota's or Baylor's - and that's saying something), Alabama is going to need chaos to reign. It's possible though - if Oklahoma falls in Bedlam at Stillwater to 8-3 Oklahoma State this Saturday, then knocks off Baylor again in the Big XII title game, Utah loses either to Colorado this week, or Oregon in the Pac-12 title game, and Minnesota loses to either Wisconsin this week or Ohio State in the Big TEN title game, the Tide will be the last team standing...