I hope everyone is getting as excited for football season as I am! I have started doing lots of mock drafts and have my own main drafts going down in the next week or so, so I thought I would share some players that I am actively trying to avoid this season. I will only use guys that are ranked in the Top-15 in terms of ADP for their position and I do all of my drafts as Point per Reception (PPR) so that will be reflected as well. Keep in mind that if anybody falls far enough down the draft board that they can turn into a really solid pickup. *ADP Ranking Supplied By Fantasy Football Calculator*
Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers (ADP - 36.2, 1st QB): Obviously there are many picks I could make for QB with so many in the Top-10 coming off of injuries (Watson, Wentz, Luck), but I wanted to avoid going the easy route. That being said, Rodgers is coming off of an injury that forced him to miss significant time last season, but I am not overly worried about it. I do not think Rodgers is going to have a bad year this season, I just simply think there are some much better ways to go about your draft. Jimmy Graham is going to make for a nice target, but he is going to miss Jordy Nelson (whether you think he is declining or not) and the running game is always a question mark with the Packers who are set to use a committee this season. Like I said, he is going to have a perfectly fine season, I'm just not comfortable taking him that high when so many solid options are on the board at RB and WR still. (Rodgers + 10th round WR/RB) vs. ie. (Cousins in 10th + 4/5th round WR/RB) is no question for me, I will take the latter every time, but that's my strategy.
Running Back
Ezekiel Elliott (ADP - 3.4, 3rd RB): Keeping in mind I draft for PPR leagues, I think Zeke is overvalued in the 3rd spot, especially when you have David Johnson ranked right after him. David Johnson is only coming off of a wrist injury and is game-script proof in that Arizona offense. Kamara is also a more appealing option to me given the Ingram suspension and Ingram's supposed falling out with the coaches over effort. Opposing defenses should also be able to focus A LOT of attention on Elliott this year given how bad that offense should be and Tavon Austin has supposedly been brought in to be the receiving back which further eats into Elliotts floor - although I have heard promises above Tavon having a role and then doing absolutely nothing countless times before.
Wide Receiver
Tyreek Hill (ADP - 35, 15th RB): Everybody knows that Tyreek has some obvious upside, but there are a few things working against him this year. A big question mark for me will be the chemistry he has with Pat Mahomes. Mahomes has a good arm, but has reportedly been having an interception problem in camp, so is he going to be able to connect with Hill on the deep ball as much? Pair that with the fact that Tyreek only averages 5 receptions a game as it is - meaning he needs the big plays in order to keep up fantasy-point-wise - and its too much of a risk for me. 16 of Hill's 20 career TDs have also come from outside 30 yds and, I mean the guy is crazy fast and gifted, but that stat just screams that it needs to regress. Sammy Watkins is also in town now, but that doesn't add too much for me in terms of downside for Hill.
Tight End
Greg Olsen (ADP - 59.2, 5th TE): Greg Olsen holds a lot of name value as a productive tight end that can offer you consistency so I get why people are accustomed to taking him so high. With that said, he is coming off of foot surgery last year and definitely looked like he had lost a step after he came back last season. He is 33 years old and, even though he just signed a two year contract, has been looking into life after football as an analyst already. He will be a primary option in that offense, but I just wonder if we aren't on too much of the decline stage with him already to warrant being the 5th TE off the board. I like options such as Engram and Delanie Walker later on.
Let me know what you guys think of my picks and feel free to offer your opinion or own picks in the comments! Good luck with all of your drafts this year!
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