NFL / fantasy football
Week 15 Bargain Plays Draftkings
Last Week's Picks Jackson 19.98 A Jones 19.60 Lindsay 15.10 Sanders N/A Fitzgerald 10.50 Pettis 13.90 Thomas 16.70 Jets 11.00 Nice week. No ceiling was crazy high but some of these picks were probably fairly useful. I was able to cash but didn't make a ton. The pivot to Sutton killed me a bit in some lineups. Looking back I should have recommended riding the Bruce Ellington train (in cash) again till his price exceeded 4k. Either way I've had worse calls 😂🤣 On to the week 15 slate QB - Dak Prescott $5500 @ Indianapolis Since the trade for Amari Cooper just before Dallas’ Thanksgiving game, Prescott's passing game has seen a massive upgrade. Pre Amari Cooper Dak was attempting roughly 29 attempts per game with 8 touchdowns and 4 interceptions in 7 games for 1417 yards. He was completing around 62% of his passes and failing to reach 200 yards passing in 4 of 7 games. He was making up a decent amount of fantasy production with his legs but typically wasn't enough to keep him relevant when getting less than 30 yards. After the trade Dak's attempts shot up to an average of 35 per game, 9 passing TDs and 3 ints for 1714 yards in 6 games. He's also brought his completion percentage up by 10 points (in comparison) to 72%, has failed to throw for under 200 yards, and is averaging around 80 passing yards per game more. His rushing yardage totals have taken a dip which can be concerning for fantasy but he's been able to rush for 3 touchdowns in the 6 game span vs 2 in the previous 7 without Cooper. Dak still has a decent chance to steal TD rushes close to the end zone with his athletic abilities and still has a rushing attempt floor around 3 per game. I think Dak makes for an excellent cash or gpp play this week on the road. RB - David Johnson $7100 @ Atlanta I believe Johnson is still a stud back in this league with just too many hurdles in his way this year. The Cards have been a disaster but it's hard to consider not playing Johnson in a spot like this. I've mentioned a lot of matchups against the falcons defense this year. They struggle to stop basically every offense they've faced this year and nearly every QB they've faced has finished in the top 15 or higher. I certainly don't think we'll see a QB 1 type of week out of Josh Rosen or anything but the matchup could be good for DJs floor. Johnson is still getting workhorse touches and with limited weapons for the cards that should without a doubt continue. Atlanta is also allowing nearly 160 total yards per game and 1 TD per game to the position. Johnson looks like a decent floor play in cash games and a possible GPP play. Fair warning though it's still the Cardinals offense and recently flukey things like Chase Edmonds (who I love and should be stashed in dynasty leagues) take goal line work. RB - Tevin Coleman $4200 vs Atlanta Honestly there isn't a ton of good things to say about Coleman. A lot of fans were waiting for this type of opportunity for him and he's basically face planted in most weeks. Coleman had a pretty intriguing price last week at $4400 and DK is just waiving a carrot in our faces, begging us to play him again after dropping his price due to meh play. Well challenge accepted DK algorithm!! My main reason for accepting this challenge would be the Cardinals coming into town. I'd expect the Falcons to play the run at home vs a very beatable and low scoring Cardinals offense. Arizona's defense is much more exploitable on the ground and as mentioned are no threat for a shootout so If Atlanta gets out to a 2 score leaders early we could finally see Coleman have a productive game for the first time since week 8 against Washington where he put up 32.6 fantasy points. But really since he's been so terrible he shouldn't be anything more than a GPP play. Should be pretty low owned too. WR - Allen Robinson $5500 vs Green Bay Robinson has been seeing some steady targets this season but it hasn't been resulting in a ton of fantasy production. I think it's his QB play. Trubiski is really finding his groove this year and making big plays. He's an excellent scrambling QB but still needs to craft his throwing accuracy. He's got one of the leagues worst deep pass completion percentages, and oftentimes throws into crowds. It is very refreshing to see young guys with no fear of slinging the rock. If he can improve his passing game in the next year there is no doubt he'll be one of the best dual threat QBs in the league. With all that said Robinson has been getting tons of looks all year. He's receiving around 21% of the teams target share and has had no less than 4 looks in any game. Robinson could be a sneaky cash play this week vs Green Bay's talented but young corners. You'll just be hoping he can convert some passes and hopefully rid his 4 game TD drought. Even if he cant you should still see a nice floor with his current workload. WR - Dante Pettis $4400 vs Seattle Just keep throwing him in your cash lineups. I don't see Pettis’ workload decreasing anytime soon especially with Nick Mullens at QB. Lock and load in cash or gpp. WR - Taylor Gabriel $4200 vs Green Bay 2nd in targets on the bears depth chart is Gabriel. Gabriel is always a decent gamble in gpps with his great lateral speed. This year the bears have been getting him much more involved and are finding creative ways to do it. Unfortunately he suffers from similar issues as teammate Allen Robinson. With lack of touchdowns recently and low yardage totals either Chicago wide receiver is a decent play for gpp and cash games, but if you are playing in gpps I'd go Gabriel based on his price and ability to be able to take the top off a defense on any play. TE - Cameron Brate $4000 @ Baltimore While Baltimore has been excellent defending the pass vs wide receivers the same can't be said vs tight end. On average Baltimore gives up around 5 receptions and 66 yards per game to the position. The only times they were able to suppress tight end production this season was against Bills, Broncos, and Titans. None of those teams really had a tight end of consequence this season and we've seen the rapport Brate has with Jameis Winston. If you aren't paying up for Kittle and want to save some extra dough I'd go Brate this week although I wouldn't knock anyone playing Jared Cook vs Cincinnati for a few hundred more. Defense - Washington $2400 @ Jacksonville Low scoring shit show that should provide us with sacks and possible turnovers
Cоwbоуѕ Wіn with Crazy Deflected Tоuсhdоwn
December 9, 2018 may be thе сrаzіеѕt day in thе history оf the NFL іn tеrmѕ оf tоuсhdоwnѕ аnd vісtоrіеѕ іn crazy gаmеѕ. Early in thе day, the Miami Dоlрhіnѕ surprised thе New Englаnd Pаtrіоtѕ wіth thе gаmе "Miami Mіrасlе" іn whісh they еѕѕеntіаllу lateralled the bаll оn the field, with nо tіmе, аftеr Nеw England hаd apparently hаd thе match сlіnсhеd. A fеw hours later, thе Dаllаѕ Cоwbоуѕ took раrt in thе fun. Even іf thеіr tоuсh dіd nоt drор as many jaws аѕ Miami, there was ѕоmеthіng to bе аwе оf. The Cоwbоуѕ hosted thеіr rіvаl Phіlаdеlрhіа Eаglеѕ Dіvіѕіоn at AT&T Stadium in a match that would hаvе a bіg іnfluеnсе on thе NFC Eаѕt rасе. The gаmе went іntо оvеrtіmе wіth the score tied аt 23-23, аnd Dаllаѕ wоn the extratime соіn tоѕѕ, meaning thеу needed only оnе tоuсhdоwn to finish thе mаtсh. Aftеr drіvіng all the way dоwn thе fіеld, whеrе Ezekiel Elliott mаnаgеd a fоurth conversion with a оnе-уаrd run аnd аtе almost аll thе оvеrtіmе, thе Cоwbоуѕ fіnаllу found thе final аrеа to ѕеаl the dеаl. In thе 47th соmрlеtіоn оf the gаmе ԛuаrtеrbасk Dak Prеѕсоtt (а frаnсhіѕе record fоr thе Cоwbоуѕ), Amаrі Cоореr won thе 15-уаrd game wіnnеr. Hоwеvеr, the раѕѕ wоuld have bееn іnсоmрlеtе untіl Rаѕul Dоuglаѕ оf Philadelphia ассіdеntаllу dеflесtеd the bаll іntо the air аnd lеt it pass іntо thе wаіtіng arms оf Cooper. It wаѕ аn incredible ѕеԛuеnсе аnd a real ѕtоmасh рunсhеr fоr Eаglеѕ fаnѕ. Fоr аn Eagles tеаm ѕtrugglіng tо rеturn to thе рlауоffѕ tо defend іtѕ Super Bоwl title a year ago, іt mау hаvе dеlіvеrеd its own knосkоut. However, thе Cоwbоуѕ and their fans wіll tаkе it wіth pleasure, аѕ thе vісtоrу brоught thеm closer to secure thе NFC Eаѕt.
Week 14 Bargain Plays DK
Last Week's Picks Cousins 10.04 Lindsay 31.90 Edwards 8.20 Coutee N/A Sutton 18.50 Ellington 10.50 Uzomah 8.30 Miami 9.00 Last week wasn't the worst with some of my picks but as a whole could've been a lot better. Edwards and Cousins had to be the massive pile of shit in people's turd sandwiches in cash this week. I'm sure a lot of people like myself expected Edwards to be a free square cash play with his matchup. It's football, shit happens. On to week 14…...just an FYI I won't be doing a week 17 blog. QB - Lamar Jackson $5700 @ Kansas City If he's still the starter next week plug him in, in cash games. Fumbles, interceptions, it just doesn't matter. Jackson has been displaying the craziest rushing floor we've seen in a long time nearly giving you 2 TDs worth of points in rushing yardage, and this week he faces another soft defense in Kansas City. If the Ravens can keep pace at all on the road they'll have to put up tons of points, and if the raiders could do it last week why not Baltimore with Lamar Jackson? RB - Aaron Jones $7400 vs Atlanta The Falcons are taking the leagues 7th worst run defense on the road to face the Packers who have finally taken the training wheels off midway through this year and letting their man smash. He hasn't seen under 14 touches since the Packers bye week(7) and has 7 touchdowns through those weeks. With Aaron Rodgers still most likely feeling the effects of his knee injury earlier on in the season, and Green Bay no longer pretending their other backs (J. Williams, Ty Montgomery traded) are skilled Jones is primed to smash for the rest of the season but especially this week at home. RB - Phillip Lindsay $6300 @ San Francisco YOU PLAY LINDSAY UNTIL DK DECIDES TO PRICE HIM CORRECTLY!!! Game Script doesn't matter. Ahead or losing Lindsay is their man and 2nd rounder Royce Freeman is strictly at goal line duty. No need to elaborate a ton Don't hesitate vs San Francisco. WR - Emmanuel Sanders $6200 @ San Francisco Sanders was most likely a let down for many people last week but he should be a regular plug and play still if you've been relying on him. He's got awesome chemistry with Case Keenum only logging under 6 targets in just 2 games this season. His fantasy outing of 5.9 points was nearly half of his previous low prior to last week's game. I'd expect a positive regression this week as long as Keenum is able to have an average game. And given they are playing the 9ers on the road it may not be a terrible idea to stack Lindsay, Keenum, and Sanders together. Fuck it, if you're gonna play a tournament play Sutton and the Broncos D while you are at it! WR - Larry Fitzgerald $4900 vs Detroit With Christian Kirk headed to IR they're completely void of many options there. That gives around 6+ targets a game to go around to the 2 viable weapons they have Larry Fitz and David Johnson. I can't really see Seals Jones getting anymore targets than he already is especially since he's done squat with the nearly 20% target share he's had all season. Also factor in that Fitz plays on the inside so he won't be shadowed by shutdown corner Darius Slay. Somebody has to catch the ball and it should be one of the league all time greats. WR - Dante Pettis $4400 vs Denver This game is setup to be a smashfest for running back Matt Breida against Denver's beatable rush defense but it's hard not to expect another decent outing from Pettis whose role should be continuing to grow at this point. Injuries and other issues to fellow wide receivers Marquise Goodwin, and Pierre Garcon have opened the floodgates for the rookie from Washington and he's made the most of every opportunity in the past 2 weeks racking up 9 receptions, and 3 touchdowns on 14 targets. Even in week 10 when he logged half the snaps he was beginning to draw targets (6) from QB Nick Mullens. If both receivers are still out for Sunday's game he could be a sneaky cash play, but he's a strong consideration for tournaments either way. TE - Ian Thomas $2700 @ Cleveland After Greg Olsen Exited last week's game Ian Thomas was very productive vs a Tampa Defense that has struggled all year posting 5 receptions on 5 targets for 46 yards. When it comes to rookie tight end production it's hard to expect a ton and while he's not blowing up the stat sheet when given opportunities he's been able to draw a lot of targets from Cam Newton. Earlier in the year when Olsen was out Thomas was able to get 16 looks in 4 games seeing a steady increase each game over that time. And while he wasn't able to completely take advantage of the bad defenses they faced just seeing that his workload, and yards per reception increase over that span shows a lot of promise for an inexperienced player, playing one of the toughest skill positions in the game. He's had a little more time to learn the ropes and with Olsen expected to miss extended time and a decent matchup vs a Browns defense that gives up around 6 receptions and 60 yards per game, Thomas looks to be an excellent cash and tournament play at his price. In my opinion the only options this week aren't going for Kelce then pay all the way down for Thomas. Defense - NY Jets $2700 @ Buffalo Similar to last weeks pick with Miami this should be a shit show of a game with a relatively low score and decent upside for sacks and turnovers so that makes the Bills D a viable option as well. Normally I'd favor the home defense in these situations but at $800 less gimme the Jets. The downside here could be that the Bills actually have a good defense and I wouldn't at all be surprised to see a pick 6 or fumble recovery for a TD.
Week 13 Bargain Plays Draftkings
QB - Kirk Cousins $5500 @ New England This price makes little sense to me but I don't care. Thanks for the gift Draftkings. Cousins is currently ranked #2 in pass attempts, has the 2nd best completion percentage. Combine that with one of the league's best wide receiver duos to accompany him. This is a no brainer start everywhere play. RB - Phillip Lindsay $5400 @ Cincinnati Lindsay is the clear cut lead back in Denver. He's logged at least 10 touches in every game he's finished. Even after teammate Royce Freeman has returned from his 3 week absence due to injury, he has failed to log more than 7 carries in the past 2 games. It's hard to tell what sort of game script we'll see out of Denver considering Cincinnati will be without starting QB Andy Dalton. Assuming Cincinnati will be able to keep up pace, I see Lindsay as a strong play vs their weak run defense. If the game were to get out of hand for the Bengals, there would be a slight chance they go with Freeman later and play ball control. I wouldn't worry about that in the slightest though. RB - Gus Edwards $4800 @ Atlanta Pretty simple really. Ride the hot hand at this price in tournaments. We've seen the Ravens flip flop their backs before and Alex Collins recent injury is helping Edwards remain on the field. Atlanta has been awful against the run and pass catching running backs this year. WR - Keke Coutee $4700 vs Cleveland Last week was a bit of a disappointing outing for Coutee only reeling in 2 passes for 14 yards on 2 targets. He's had a lingering hamstring injury all year and it came popping back up on Monday night. With that said while the Titans offense has looked pretty sloppy, but their defense has quietly been playing pretty well especially in the middle of the field. If Coutee is able to suit up this matchup will be a perfect bounce back opportunity. Cleveland is pretty weak in the middle of the field defensively, and with no tight end absorbing a lot of targets Coutee may be able to return to his early season greatness that we saw. Out of his 6 starts he's had 2 dud games of 5 total targets but those were games he was forced out of early. In his 4 other starts he saw an average of 9 with 36 targets. WR - Courtland Sutton $4200 @ Cincinnati He's logging a ton of snaps and still getting an extra target per game since Demaryius Thomas left but it just hasn't come together for him. I think some of his lack of success can be blamed on Case Keenum, but at this price with this matchup I think it's worth it to give him another go in tourney's. WR - Bruce Ellington $3500 vs LA Rams Bruce Ellington is easily the best value cash or tournament play this week. He's barely had time to look at the playbook and has already been commanding 16 targets over the past 2 games and put up some decent numbers. Add in Marvin Jones being on IR now and Ellington seems like a slam dunk play especially if he stays in the slot which I fully expect. He should be able to easily produce in a game where the Lions should be behind. TE - CJ Uzomah $3400 vs Denver Denver is currently ranked 9th worst vs tight ends. Last week Uzomah received 13 targets vs a Browns defense who also has trouble stopping the position. Over the past 7 weeks he's logged around a 96% snap share and he's running a ton of routes. He's also working with a fairly inexperienced starting QB in Jeff Driskel. It's no guarantee that adds anything but it could be possible. Uzomah entered the year as the tight end 3 and has most likely taken a lot of reps with Driskell in the past, and even if that wasn't the case Uzomah presents a lot more upside than most guys just given that he's on the field a ton. You could do a hell of a lot worse in this price range. Defense - Miami $2700 vs Buffalo Both teams have pretty garbage offenses and I'd imagine this game will be pretty low scoring. Over their last 3 games Miami has racked up 8 turnovers and 7 sacks. You could go with the bills too, but I'd take the home team defense here and easily count on a couple of sacks and turnovers. This is one of the best defensive plays this week.