NFL / fantasy sports

fuzzmaster
Draftkings Week 16 Bargain Plays
Last Week's Picks Dak Prescott 7.24 David Johnson 19.10 Tevin Coleman 23.50 Allen Robinson 8.40 Dante Pettis 13.30 Taylor Gabriel 6.30 Cameron Brate 1.90 Washington 12.00 On to the week 16 slate QB - Dak Prescott $5700 vs Tampa Bay Dak let a lot of DFS and season long players down last week. In my opinion he was a lock of the week considering Dallas was most likely going to be down most of the game and their run defense has played very well. Those factors were in play but unfortunately the results just weren't there. It's football and shit happens. I wouldn't let this weeks result cloud your judgement too much. Dak was still able to complete 62% of his passes with decent volume and exceed 200 yards. What hurt the most was his lack of rushing attempts. It was his first goose egg in that area this year and his first game since week 1 without a TD at all. For a lot of the reasons I listed last week I'd consider Dak a great start facing one of the leagues worst defenses at home. RB - Saquon Barkley $7900 @ Indianapolis Not exactly a super cheap bargain but a bargain nonetheless. I'm not trying to be lazy listing a guy that has only gone under 20 points 2 times all season including last week. With his bad week and what appears to be a bad matchup this week, Draftkings has graciously reduced his price. He should be in all cash and gpp lineups this week. RB - Tevin Coleman $4800 @ Carolina After smashing last week Coleman gets a slight bump in price. I wouldn't consider playing him 2 weeks in a row based on his lack of consistent strong play, but with Ito Smith going to IR I think it's reasonable to expect his opportunities to increase and possibly out play his price range again. He's still fairly risky given that he hasn't seen a huge workload all season and even when he has he's rarely been able to take advantage. On the plus side he hadn't had the worst floor all year either though. If you aren't comfortable playing Coleman you could pivot to Brian Hill at 3k. Both are gpp plays though. WR - Jarvis Landry $6200 vs Cincinnati Personally I'm not a huge Jarvis Landry fan. His entire career thus far has been pretty lackluster considering the amount of volume he's seen and if not for his flukey 9 TDs last year he would've had a pretty embarrassing season with 112 catches but unable to eclipse 1000 yards or 10 yards per reception. He's a volume driven compiler who is starting to show his true colors consistently doing the least with the most. While he has improved in some areas he is nowhere near a WR 1 caliber talent for any team. He currently is in the top 10 in targets (8th), target share (7th) , and red zone targets (3rd) at the position and only has 72 receptions (15th), 827 yards (20th), 191 yards after catch (48th), and 4 touchdowns (45th). While you could try to contribute some of this to QB Baker Mayfield I'd consider that a stretch. Baker has shown some inconsistent play but he's already better than half the QBs in the NFL. Enough ranting about Landry and his real football production. He's still a decent fantasy asset based his target share alone. He's been seeing a Nukish (Hopkins) like amount of targets which keeps his floor great for cash games and facing a beat up Bengals team he may be worth considering in gpp too but for me I'd go for a higher upside cheaper play for that. Perhaps like a Dante Pettis who should have low ownership based on his matchup vs the Bears. WR - Alshon Jeffery $5300 vs Houston There isn't a large sample size this season of a Foles and Jeffery connection but if you consider last year's playoff run with last week's game @ LA, Foles seems to have some decent chemistry with Jeffery. From the start of last year's playoffs to last week, Jeffery saw 5, 5, 8 and 8 targets with Foles. In those 26 targets Jeffery was able to haul in 20 of them for an 80% catch rate. Although the End of offense has been terrible as of late I still view Alshon as an elite receiver. We've also seen that if Foles can get hot he's able to elevate his play to an elite type level. There's certainly some risk though since we've also seen Foles go through extreme cold streaks where he can be gun shy and extra conservative. But based on their past rapport Id be willing to take the risk in cash games and with some chance of high volatility I'd consider him a lock for gpp. WR - Dede Westbrook $4900 @ Miami Dede is a strong gpp option. I'm not going to lie though. I'm not crazy about his price especially given the bad play of Cody Kessler. He does have a lot going for him though. He has yet to see less than 4 targets in any game this year and no less than 2 receptions so we have a floor that isn't 0. And going back to targets, since Kessler took over in week 13 Westbrook has had 20 in the last 3 games. Now the bad part. All season the Jags have not been able to push the ball down field so unless their skill positions bust off big plays or get a red zone look which seems to rarely happen in this offense, then you could see a stat line like 3 receptions for 20 yards. And with that also comes low completion rates. Westbrook could get 8 targets but there's a chance he could only bring in 3 to 5 of them for 20 total yards. He's probably the most capable WR on the team to be able to break one off to the house or creating other big plays like a punt return for a TD like last week, and with a floor of non zero all season it's definitely worth it to have him in some tournament lineups. If you wanted to go a few hundred cheaper, Robbie Anderson shares a lot of the same qualities as Dede and is at $4500. His price and recent success may drive his ownership up though. TE - David Njoku $3800 vs Cincinnati Njoku is a very young and highly talented player still trying to make his mark in the league. This year has been a huge growing year for him but with his doubled snap share he should be gaining the experience he needs to be a true breakout for next season. He's had his ups and downs all year in the box score but he's been consistently worked into their game plans and has been able to put up decent production vs teams that aren't great vs the tight end. I personally would have loved to see stronger outings in the past 2 weeks but considering the landscape of the position in fantasy his 6.5, and 6 point games won't kill you in a matchup. Over the last 4 weeks he's had no less than 4 targets and 3 receptions with 1 touchdown. He's also facing one of the NFL's worst defenses against the position and the last time both teams met Njoku had 5 receptions on 5 targets for 63 yards and a touchdown. While Njoku hasn't been lighting up the stat sheet he also hasn't been terrible outside of 2 games this entire year. With the Bengals being beat up with injuries on both sides of the ball there could be a chance Cleveland jumps out to an early big lead and pounds Chubb down the middle but even if that happens I expect Njoku to be a very safe play. May not have a super high ceiling but the floor is definitely good for cash games. Defense - New England $2500 vs Buffalo Buffalo has been a decent matchup for most fantasy defenses all year. And while Josh Allen has been a real threat as a rusher I don't think he's as great of an asset as a passer. The bills also give up a ton of sacks and have a hard time scoring generally. Lock in New England
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fuzzmaster
Week 14 Bargain Plays DK
Last Week's Picks Cousins 10.04 Lindsay 31.90 Edwards 8.20 Coutee N/A Sutton 18.50 Ellington 10.50 Uzomah 8.30 Miami 9.00 Last week wasn't the worst with some of my picks but as a whole could've been a lot better. Edwards and Cousins had to be the massive pile of shit in people's turd sandwiches in cash this week. I'm sure a lot of people like myself expected Edwards to be a free square cash play with his matchup. It's football, shit happens. On to week 14…...just an FYI I won't be doing a week 17 blog. QB - Lamar Jackson $5700 @ Kansas City If he's still the starter next week plug him in, in cash games. Fumbles, interceptions, it just doesn't matter. Jackson has been displaying the craziest rushing floor we've seen in a long time nearly giving you 2 TDs worth of points in rushing yardage, and this week he faces another soft defense in Kansas City. If the Ravens can keep pace at all on the road they'll have to put up tons of points, and if the raiders could do it last week why not Baltimore with Lamar Jackson? RB - Aaron Jones $7400 vs Atlanta The Falcons are taking the leagues 7th worst run defense on the road to face the Packers who have finally taken the training wheels off midway through this year and letting their man smash. He hasn't seen under 14 touches since the Packers bye week(7) and has 7 touchdowns through those weeks. With Aaron Rodgers still most likely feeling the effects of his knee injury earlier on in the season, and Green Bay no longer pretending their other backs (J. Williams, Ty Montgomery traded) are skilled Jones is primed to smash for the rest of the season but especially this week at home. RB - Phillip Lindsay $6300 @ San Francisco YOU PLAY LINDSAY UNTIL DK DECIDES TO PRICE HIM CORRECTLY!!! Game Script doesn't matter. Ahead or losing Lindsay is their man and 2nd rounder Royce Freeman is strictly at goal line duty. No need to elaborate a ton Don't hesitate vs San Francisco. WR - Emmanuel Sanders $6200 @ San Francisco Sanders was most likely a let down for many people last week but he should be a regular plug and play still if you've been relying on him. He's got awesome chemistry with Case Keenum only logging under 6 targets in just 2 games this season. His fantasy outing of 5.9 points was nearly half of his previous low prior to last week's game. I'd expect a positive regression this week as long as Keenum is able to have an average game. And given they are playing the 9ers on the road it may not be a terrible idea to stack Lindsay, Keenum, and Sanders together. Fuck it, if you're gonna play a tournament play Sutton and the Broncos D while you are at it! WR - Larry Fitzgerald $4900 vs Detroit With Christian Kirk headed to IR they're completely void of many options there. That gives around 6+ targets a game to go around to the 2 viable weapons they have Larry Fitz and David Johnson. I can't really see Seals Jones getting anymore targets than he already is especially since he's done squat with the nearly 20% target share he's had all season. Also factor in that Fitz plays on the inside so he won't be shadowed by shutdown corner Darius Slay. Somebody has to catch the ball and it should be one of the league all time greats. WR - Dante Pettis $4400 vs Denver This game is setup to be a smashfest for running back Matt Breida against Denver's beatable rush defense but it's hard not to expect another decent outing from Pettis whose role should be continuing to grow at this point. Injuries and other issues to fellow wide receivers Marquise Goodwin, and Pierre Garcon have opened the floodgates for the rookie from Washington and he's made the most of every opportunity in the past 2 weeks racking up 9 receptions, and 3 touchdowns on 14 targets. Even in week 10 when he logged half the snaps he was beginning to draw targets (6) from QB Nick Mullens. If both receivers are still out for Sunday's game he could be a sneaky cash play, but he's a strong consideration for tournaments either way. TE - Ian Thomas $2700 @ Cleveland After Greg Olsen Exited last week's game Ian Thomas was very productive vs a Tampa Defense that has struggled all year posting 5 receptions on 5 targets for 46 yards. When it comes to rookie tight end production it's hard to expect a ton and while he's not blowing up the stat sheet when given opportunities he's been able to draw a lot of targets from Cam Newton. Earlier in the year when Olsen was out Thomas was able to get 16 looks in 4 games seeing a steady increase each game over that time. And while he wasn't able to completely take advantage of the bad defenses they faced just seeing that his workload, and yards per reception increase over that span shows a lot of promise for an inexperienced player, playing one of the toughest skill positions in the game. He's had a little more time to learn the ropes and with Olsen expected to miss extended time and a decent matchup vs a Browns defense that gives up around 6 receptions and 60 yards per game, Thomas looks to be an excellent cash and tournament play at his price. In my opinion the only options this week aren't going for Kelce then pay all the way down for Thomas. Defense - NY Jets $2700 @ Buffalo Similar to last weeks pick with Miami this should be a shit show of a game with a relatively low score and decent upside for sacks and turnovers so that makes the Bills D a viable option as well. Normally I'd favor the home defense in these situations but at $800 less gimme the Jets. The downside here could be that the Bills actually have a good defense and I wouldn't at all be surprised to see a pick 6 or fumble recovery for a TD.
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