I am not a financial adviser or even a crypto trader, I'm a lower tier investor looking for long term projects that will yield big returns over time or that will provide a lasting form of income. It is important to understand this about me so that you don't mistake my opinions as advice for short term investments and trades. I think in macro terms, I look at how blockchain technology and the various projects in existence right now might disrupt and change the way the world conducts business, and finance, among other things in the future. What I'm studying and trying to better understand is the science of trend interpretation, and I'm mostly interested in the long term trends more than the short term trends.
When I'm looking at the worlds financial markets today I see some interesting, and to tell you the truth, frightening trend changes approaching. I became very interested in the financial markets leading up to the 2007-2009 recession, I became more and more alarmed when I began hearing many amateur investment analysts and market watchers on YouTube calling for a possible complete financial market meltdown and some of them were saying in 2007 that we were in the "Crack up Boom" phase that would end the current fiat money cycle. Thankfully they were wrong, we just had what became known as the "Great Recession." But how close did we come to this spectacular event that they were sounding the alarm about?
The condensed Story:
The Bigger View:
Had the United States Congress not given authority to the Federal Reserve Bank to provide whatever liquidity was necessary and bail out the "Too Big To Fail" banks, then the world would have suffered a systemic economic and financial collapse. Exactly what the YouTube alarmists had been calling for and warning of. How could they have guessed that new laws would have been passed and new powers given to private banks over the entire financial system? But that power in fact was given and the United States as well as most of the other Governments of the world incurred many trillions of dollars of increased debts. Now the interest payments alone on all of these debts is exceeding the GDP, total income. of these Governments.
I tell you this because I'm now seeing YouTube prognosticators again saying the same type things that they were saying before the Great Recession. And when I look at the macro economic charts I see that we are past due for the next economic recession. Instead of Lehman Brothers Bank in the United States on the verge of collapse I see Deutsche Bank in Germany and major banks in Italy and Spain on the verge of collapse. All of the worlds banks are now intertwined together so that a failure of one big bank could cause a domino effect toppling even more banks until the entire system collapses. If one relatively small bank in the United States could almost cause a complete systemic failure back in 2008, then how much more possible is it now with the largest bank in Germany close to failure? Will this coming down cycle be a repeat of history and continue a long term trend of progressively worse economic failures approximately every ten years? If so can any Government or institution bail us out this time?
I could just keep adding videos on here from other YouTube channels that cover these issues from a variety of angles, but you get the idea, there are a lot of people who believe that we are entering a major downward spiraling economic cycle that will end our current financial system.
To be honest I have no idea whether they are correct or not, but it is easy to look at the charts, the numbers, past history and recent trends to see that there is a very strong case for a soon coming economic recession. What I have been trying to figure out is what effect such a recession might have on Cryptocurrencies. One of my favorite chart analysts "Alessio Rastani" believes that it is very likely that Bitcoin and cryptos will fall in a recession just like the other world markets. Here is his video on the subject;
I would be inclined to agree with Mr. Rastani if we are simply talking about another recession similar to or not as bad as the one that started in 2007, but what happens if we see that dreaded systemic failure that a lot of people were expecting in 2007 that was staved off by the creation of trillions upon trillions of dollars to keep liquidity in the markets? What if all the Federal Reserve and the rest of the worlds reserve banks accomplished by the injection of all that cash was to just put off the inevitable until now? What if they not only can't stop it from happening this time, but instead they simply caused the effects of the collapse to be many times worse than it would have been over 10 years ago had they just allowed it to happen then? And by the way, what exactly would a systemic financial system collapse even look like? Has one ever happened before?
In the old Roman Empire life was extremely slow as compared to our modern society, and the changes taking place in the monetary system way back then took much longer to show visual effects across the Empire. But today in our fast moving society and near instant monetary exchanges across the world through Internet transactions, the policies and changes in the system are felt very quickly. So much so in fact that a word from the head of the U.S. Federal Reserve or a Tweet from the U.S. President can have a substantial effect on financial markets all over the world almost instantly.
If a total systemic failure were to occur then it could begin suddenly and with little warning. Almost all International trade would grind to a halt, and manufacturing would stop as soon as the on hand materials were expended. The banking system would freeze and then fail, you may not know this but anything that you have in the bank whether in a checking or savings account, or even in a safety deposit box, does not belong to you it belongs to the bank. In a crisis the bank will use your money and take anything of value that you have entrusted to them to keep safe in order to clear their own financial deficits. By the time we normal everyday people begin to see these things happen, many of the people with inside information and that hold large accounts will already know what is coming and will have been desperately trying to preserve their wealth.
It stands to reason that trust in fiat currencies would soon collapse and whatever trade was taking place locally would be done with something of real intrinsic value, or with some other currency that is outside of the current system. So the wealthy and the elites will be transferring their money out of the current system and into something with intrinsic value, or into things that will either be unaffected by the collapse or will actually gain value because of the collapse.
What are these things, what will hold value when everything else is collapsing in value? Where will people be able to earn a living if the banks are closed and manufacturing jobs go away? What will people use for trade if their current money becomes worthless and no store or business will accept it any longer? That is the question that all of us need to ask ourselves now before the next crisis hits, because by the time we see it happening it may be too late.
Many investment gurus on YouTube have been telling me since long before 2007 that I needed to keep some gold and silver on hand just in case of a financial emergency or a financial collapse, in particular a hyper-inflationary depression. This has actually been propagated since the United States came off of the gold standard for it's currency in 1972. The reason being that the U.S. Dollar was for the first time since the Revolutionary war once again subject to the possibility of hyperinflation. I believe that this is a good argument and I do think that it is a good idea for people to have some silver and gold as a hedge for emergencies. But holding silver and gold is not as easy as it seems, and spending it in an emergency is even harder. The metals are heavy and hard to transport and it is even harder to fractionalize for small purchases. The one great thing about gold is that through history a person has been able to buy land and a home with just a small bag full of gold, but try buying a loaf of bread with it.
I have gone through all of this just to say that I believe that Bitcoin and crypto currencies were created after the great recession of 2008 as a hedge against it happening again. Because as the crisis unfolded it was quickly realized that if the system failed there would be no safe haven for wealth and there was no system available to take the place of our current financial system. I don't know who Satoshi Nakamoto was/is but I have this feeling that he/she/they had some ties and possibly a commission from "The Powers that Be" to develop an alternate parallel system that would provide a backstop just in case the financial reforms and stopgaps that prevented the near collapse back then could not provide protection the next time around. Thus I believe that if we truly are heading into another major crisis, then blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies may be the safe haven for wealth preservation and the resurgence of International trade should such a disaster as systemic failure strike.
That brings us to the end of this blog and it tells the story of my interest in Blockchains and Cryptocurrency. But why did I choose Scorum as one of my investments? It was basically because of my belief that the Graphene Blockchain represented the most advanced technology and because the economic model of a completed Scorum project represented the greatest potential for high rates of sustained returns of any project that was then in existence. I can honestly tell you that at this moment, even though the risks involved with the Scorum project have significantly increased, there is still not another project that in my opinion gives a greater probably of future earnings verses the amount of initial investment required in all of blockchain. I still see a completed Scorum economic model as having the highest potential long term ROI of any available blockchain investment. I certainly think that other projects may see faster short term returns, but if Scorum hangs on until adoption then I don't see anything else, so far, that can match the potential that we have right here with Scorum. If you have $5-10K and you want to put it into EOS then okay, I think that you will do really well and there would be a lot less risk involved. But at the level of investment that I'm able to put together I have decided that Scorum is one of the best opportunities for me and my future.
Do I really believe that the world is headed for financial disaster? Yes, I absolutely do believe that a systemic failure at some point is inevitable and that we will one day see a complete changeover into a new monetary system. Of course the big question then is whether the new system will be blockchain based or not, and if it is a blockchain based system will it use the blockchains in existence today or will it be something completely new operated by some World Government entity? These are questions that I can't even begin to answer, nor can I say when such a financial collapse might happen. But we have what we have today and that is all that we have for now. So we must use what's in the here and now and be ever watching for what changes the future might bring us.