Novak Djokovic at the age of 31 probably does not have too much time left at the top of the tennis world, especially considering the style of dogged defensive tennis he plays. So tonight he will probably feel even more desperate to achieve something that even Federer, Nadal or Murray have never been able to and are never likely to do - that is to win all nine of the ATP Masters 1000 Series titles and achieve a Golden Masters Record.
Djokovic is just one title away from his Golden Masters Achievement and dream record with the Cincinnati title being the only one that has eluded him for so long. There's only one problem and it's a rather big one, he faces Roger Federer in the final. Federer who had a stroke of luck in the Semi's last night when Goffin withdrew due to injury has beaten Djokovic three times before in the Cincinnati final. So history is not on the side of Djokovic to accomplish what will be a historic victory.
Watch: Djokovic in His Own Words About Gunning for the Elusive Golden Masters
Staggeringly Djokovic has reached the final in Cincinnati five times before and each time he has failed to clinch the title!
Let's take a look at Djokovic's five previous finals in Cincinnati:
Djokovic's Previous Cincinnati Final Results:
2015: Federer Beats Djokovic: 7-6(7-1), 6-3
2012: Federer Beats Djokovic 6-0, 7-6(9-7)
2011: Murray Beats Djokovic 6-4, 3-0 Ret.
2009: Federer Beats Djokovic 6-1, 7-5
2008: Murray Beats Djokovic 7-6(7-4), 7-6(7-5)
Tonight's match up against Federer is weighted 50/50 by many including the bookies on who will come out on top. Given Djokovic only last month won Wimbledon and that Federer has proven to be vulnerable to a variety of opponents over the past year I can see why so many people are undecided about who will claim victory tonight.
Tenacity is the Life Blood Djokovic Draws From
Djokovic had to endure another three set match last night against Marin Cilic. Cilic was not an easy win for Djokovic he was pretty much hitting winners on any sort of short ball Djokovic was dropping into court which lead to the Croat taking the second set and setting up a third that was nip and tuck for the whole encounter. It could have gone either way except for one key backhand pass down the line that allowed Djokovic to break Cilic's serve. Even Djokovic himself in a post match interview admitted as such saying his was fortunate to come out on top against Marin.
Djokovic can use these dogged encounters over the past three matches to draw inspiration from when facing Federer tonight. Even though he is 0-3 against Federer at Cincinnati his overall record against the Swiss Maestro is still very positive, especially given recent history. Since his last loss against Federer at Cincinnati Djokovic has won three of the last four!
Watch: Djokovic Brush Aside Federer at the 2016 Australian Open Semi Finals
How the Match Will Likely Go Down in Cincinnati Tonight
It's easy to think Federer has the better chance of winning this match given Djokovic's poor service record so far this year in Cincinnati. He has been struggling with his first serve percentage and effectiveness. But at the same time if he has managed to get through to the final with a poor first serve then just think how good he can play if he lifts his service game against Federer.
Add to that the fact he and Andy Murray have the best ever record for returns of serve and you can see that this is not an easy match to call a winner from. Federer has been serving very consistently all year and in Cincinnati he has yet to have his serve broken. But if anyone has a chance to break it, it's Djokovic. We saw last night that Goffin got to deuce a fair few times on Federer's serve and Wawrinka the match before did the same.
Djokovic: Weak First Serve Could Be Exposed
I can see a tight match on our hands tonight with atleast one tie break happening. Federer will be the better server of the two applying more pressure to Djokovic at keeping a high first serve percentage for himself. Djokovic cannot afford to serve as poorly against Federer as he did against Cilic in the first set where he was below 50% on first serves in. Federer will eat his second serve alive.
Federer: Leaky Forehand Could Be Exposed
Federer is not short of showing weakness too in Cincinnati. His forehand as been leaking unforced errors, just look at how many unforced off the forehand he produced against Wawrinka missing some key chances that almost cost him the match. Djokovic has a far more consistent forehand and backhand because he hits more conservatively and has one of the best double handers in the game. Federer is the more aggressive flat hitting player and he will need to remain consistently aggressive and lower his unforced error count or he could be going down.
Expect Djokovic to Stay Back and Federer to Come Forward
This will pretty much be the state of play for most of the match. Djokovic who is one of the best defensive players of all time will stick behind the baseline for the majority of his points and will be looking to draw errors from Federer's flat hitting game style by keeping him penned behind his own baseline.
Federer will be looking to press Djokovic and look for the short ball where he can come in and take time away against Djokovic. He will look to press at the net and finish points off quickly. The match will be very cat and mouse for the entire two or three sets.
My Prediction
I can see this one going to three sets and being the optimist I am, I'd like to think Djokovic can achieve his Golden Masters Record of winning all 9 ATP Masters 1000 titles, given he has failed five times in Cincinnati, I'd love to see him take it at the sixth time of asking!
What do you guys think will be the result tonight?
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