I've been backing Evans all week and that has proved very rewarding for me. The Brit who I use to back before his drugs ban (as he produced many upsets back then too) has had his best week of tennis of his entire career, clearly eclipsing his tournament run to the final of the Sydney ATP back in 2017. Last night he went one step further to securing his maiden ATP title by beating Isner over three sets as well as coming back from a set down showing his incredible resolve.
Evans was just two points away from a first round defeat to Francis Tiafoe but somehow managed to turn that match around and knock out the defending champion. From there on the 28 year old has looked composed under pressure and refused to buckle when the momentum has been with his opponents. Here are the odds and wins I have had on him all week in his run to the final:
Evans vs Tiafoe - Evans Outright 2.65 (1% stake)
Evans vs Harris - Evans Straight Sets 2.5 (2% stake)
Evans vs Seppi - Evans Outright 1.9 (2% stake)
Evans vs Isner - Evans Outright 2.75 (1% stake)
Today he faces another underdog - Moldovian Radu Albot, it's Evans title to loose now, even the bookies have him as clear favourite at 1.53, his lowest odds for the whole tournament. Whilst I believe he should win those odds aren't particularly attractive and Albot is a decent player who could cause Evans some problems. He has looked solid at the back all week with possibly his biggest win of the tournament being against a lack lustre Nick Kygrios.
Never less for me Evans to win in straight sets is still worth a 1% stake at odds of 2.24.
As I laid out in my previous article vs Isner Evans ability to block Isner's serve and deploy his low slice frustrated Isner in the second and third set who opted to come to the fore court to try to apply pressure on Evans. However even Evans drive backhand looked sharp with some beautiful passes down the line. Isner was amazingly broken twice by Evans in the second set. That alone is a very impressive achievement by Evans, players rarely break Isner twice in a set even the top guys. It was Evans ability to mix up his back court game that caught out Isner with many slices of the Brit's being fired clumsily wide by the 6ft 10 inch towering American.
Evans again went a set down but he didn't panic, instead responding well by taking the second set 6-2 and third 6-3. He will go into today's final very confident that he can now claim his first ever ATP title. Beyond that who knows how far the Birmingham born fiery player can actually go with his game, he has plenty of ability from so many shots he definitely has the chance to make the top 20 players in the world this year with a few more tournament runs.
Prediction: Evans in straight sets vs Albot at 2.25. Albot is a solid player but his serve is not like Big John's and Evans will have plenty of opportunity to break the number 82nd. He will definitely be gunning for victory in straight sets to take that momentum into his next tournament. By that point he will have climbed considerably higher up the rankings simply with his run to the final but claiming the title here will be the icing on the cake for what will be a dream start to 2019.
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