You may think it's a bit premature writing this post as Nadal is actually playing against Francis Tiafoe right now in the Quarter Final in Melbourne. But given Nadal is already a two sets up the chances of Tiafoe coming back is none existent. I wouldn't even take odds of 100/1 being offered by the bookies, given Tiafoe's style of play, he simply doesn't have the type of game or tool kit to deal any sort of damage to Nadal.
Who does however have the sort of game that can disrupt and possibly upset Nadal on a good night is Stefanos Tsitsipas, the boy wonder who overcame Roger Federer in four sets earlier this week and already has two matches under his belt against the Spanish bull is looking in a confident mood. Indeed it was Nadal who Tsitsipas met in his first two ATP finals last year when he broke onto the scene for the tennis world to see. You could see in the clay season of 2018 that Tsitsipas had raw talent that if honed could challenge the best in the game. His first meeting with Nadal was on clay in Barcelona (he was never going to win that) and then on a hard court at the Toronto masters. The latter match Tsitsipas put up more of a fight by at least taking one of the sets to a tie break. Understandably in the earlier final in Barcelona Tsitsipas was destroyed 6-2, 6-1 by Nadal.
But the Greek hero we see now at the Australian Open is a different player to the one less than a year ago. He has won his first ATP title, took the Next Gen title and has put together a convincing run in Melbourne. His defeat of a Federer who was in fine form was his most impressive win of his career thus far. Federer didn't have a bad game, Tsitsipas just did everything Federer did but better. Perhaps the key quality Tsitsipas has that Tiafoe doesn't vs Nadal is his ability to close off points down at the net. Tiafoe hasn't developed a net game where as the Greek wonder has. Add to that the fact that Tsitsipas has a piercing forehand capable of doing more damage to Nadal and a far more consistent backhand than Tiafoe (even though it's single handed) and Tsitsipas is capable of taking Nadal to five sets given the right circumstances.
I won't be going for a Tsitsipas win outright as a semi final prediction, instead I'll be going for a game and set handicap in favour of the Greek. I believe the bookies will be offering generous handicaps on Tsitsipas due to Nadal's record in slams, Nadal's record against Tsitsipas thus far and because Nadal is Nadal!
Tsitsipas will be well aware of the danger of Nadal, especially given the fact that he's come into 2019 with an improved serve which is far more powerful and is giving him more cheap points. That''s right, just when you think Nadal is an impossible player to play already, he only went and fine tuned his serve in late 2018 to be more aggressive which is preventing his opponents from getting a look in on his serve. The young Greek's plan will have to be one of aggression and forecourt closure if he wishes to have any sort of chance against the 17 Grand Slam winner. Tsitsipas atleast also has a great serve, he's 6ft 4inches - just about the right size to generate easy power on serve whilst not compromising on mobility around the court.
Any worry of Nadal coming into the Open with a niggling injury that would dent his chances of going all the way have been well and truly put to bed. He is moving with pace and purpose all over court. Perhaps his choice to not just hit his serve harder but to go for more winners off both his fore and backhand side are also working to his advantage of avoiding any of his old injuries from cropping up. Against Tsitsipas he won't have the luxury he is having tonight against Tiafoe though. Also worth mentioning is that Tsitsipas has a useful backhand slice to more effectively defend off his back wing and allow him to reset, hanging in points for longer against Nadal. Tiafoe does not possess any sort of slice which limits his choice for recovery. Tsitsipas will be able to deploy the slice to mix up the pace and also to ask more questions of Nadal from the long inevitable rallies that will ensue.
Tsitsipas backed up his win over Federer with a comfortable result vs this months Doha ATP winner Bautista Agut today. That was no easy ask given the Spaniard defeated Djokovic this month and has been showing tremendous tenacity on court in his Australian Open run. I think that could prove a good warm up for Tsitsipas before he meets the Number One Spanish player on court on Thursday.
Match Prediction: Nadal is likely to take this 3-1. But I will be predicting a win for bettors off the game and set handicap provided by the bookmakers in favour of Tsitsipas. I'll be recommending a 1% stake for both predictions. I'll update the odds shortly.
But for now I will leave you with the highlights of how Tsitsipas overcame the defending champion to achieve an unlikely result in Melbourne this week.
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