Paris will be the final tournament of the ATP calendar year before the London Finals and being a Masters 1000, it has managed to attract all of the Big 3 to it's courts as tennis fans rub their hands at the prospect of seeing Rafa Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer all in one tournament. Organisers hope this year will see a much more competitive tournament and entertaining spectacle for fans compared to last year. Paris 2017 was plagued by injuries that saw the absence of Djokovic, Murray and Federer (although the Swiss pulled out due to fatigue). To make things worse Nadal being the only big 3 star playing then withdrew in the Quarter finals due to a knee injury leaving Jack Sock to eventually claim the title for himself.
It's been more than a month since the top 3 players in the world were in the same tournament, that was back at the US Open where we failed to see any of the big 3 clash as both Rafa Nadal and Roger Federer bowed out before the Final leaving Novak Djokovic to brush aside Juan Martin Del Potro in straight sets - an totally underwhelming final for fans to watch.
We can only hope the Paris Masters serves up a little more excitement for fans with the prospect of 2 of the 3 meeting before the final and 2 in the final. Most will be ideally wanting to see Federer face Nadal in the final but any combination of the 3 will be a welcome sight. I don't say that as a cynic to all other players, but it's not like anyone else has played inspired tennis this year to even trouble one of the Big 3. For most of this year whenever a player outside of the top 3 has reached a final to face either Federer, Nadal or Djokovic they have been annihilated except for one player - Del Potro who took out Federer in the final at Indian Wells and Dominic Thiem who overcame Djokovic when the Serbian was just getting started. Even Del Potro when up against Djokovic at the US Open final, failed miserably to even take a set of the Golden Master.
Federer: Time to Hang Up the Racket?
Having seen Federer fall miserably against Coric in Shanghai last week, my ideal final for the Paris Masters is now Nadal vs Djokovic.
I think this match up will offer the best and most competitive final possible. Nadal nearly took out Djokovic at Wimbledon and the Spanish bull come Paris will have enjoyed almost 2 months off although most of that will have been recovering from a knee injury. Nadals Wimbledon match vs Djokovic went all the way to 10 games to 8 in the 5th set giving fans more than their moneys worth. I must say I have been happy for Djokovic and his barnstorming run of Slams and Masters titles. I saw his rise coming after the French Open and knew he would capture the Wimbledon title. But I underestimated just how poorly Federer would play in the latter half of this year thinking he would pose a real threat to Djokovic in many of the tournaments, instead he's looked like Djokovic's ball boy at times! He has put in some poor performances, especially vs Djokovic in the final of Cincinatti and Millman in the US Open where he capitulated on serve.
Cometh the Hour Cometh the Bull
Therefore it's left to Nadal to be the one to stop Djokovic taking the number 1 ranking by the end of the year. Even with Nadal at the peak of his powers there's no guarantee he can defeat Djokovic, but he does have a good record against him and more crucially a better recent record than Federer does. Federer has lost his last 3 meetings with Djokovic where as Nadal has won 2 of his last 3. He almost made it 3 from 3 as well at Wimbledon, he only went out in the 5th set by 10 games to 8.
Statistically Nadal has won 6 sets and Djokovic's 3 sets in their last 3 matches.
Where as Federer has won only 1 set and Djokovic 7 sets in their last 3 matches.
We can clearly see Nadal is much more of threat to Djokovic than Federer is at the moment.
The current rankings table below makes interesting reading right now given Djokovic's win in Shanghai. Only 200 points separate him and Nadal in the battle for 1st place. Obviously if Nadal didn't suffer his knee injury at the US Open he would have been competing in the Shanghai Masters and would have collected some points there so the table doesn't represent the complete picture here but Djokovic has hit an unbelievable rich vein of form. He was ranked 21st with just 1715 points at the beginning of July.
Within the last 3 months Djokovic has leapt up to 2nd in the world from 21st with gaining an additional 5700 points. The odds of that happening back at the begining of July would have been extremely high.
Federer Looking to Defend Another 500 Points Ahead of Paris
Federer will be playing in the Swiss Indoor Basel ATP 500 Tournament directly before the Paris Masters as he has to defend his crown there to retain an additional 500 points otherwise he will drop even further behind Nadal and Djokovic. He has been given a huge slice of luck though because 4th placed Del Potro who could have over taken Federer in the rankings at the tournament has fractured his knee cap and is likely to miss the tournament now.
But there are other threats lurking in Basel for Federer who now looks susceptible to any top 10 player. Alexander Zverev, Marin Cilic and Stan Wawrinka are in attendance and can all give the current champion a run for his money. Defending his 500 champion points won't be easy. Having said that Federer needs a title win under his belt to restore some of his jaded confidence. A good run here against some tough opponents will do him the world of good before Paris.
With all Eye's on Djokovic, Nadal Can Stop the Golden Master
Check nearly every single tennis site out and you will find everyone talking about the second coming of Novak Djokovic and with good reason too. But let's not forget what Nadal is capable of and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Spaniard return with a bang. If he looks to be over his knee injury he has a great chance of capturing both the Paris Masters and London ATP Final titles and successfully defending his number 1 ranking. He will be fully aware of the threat Djokovic poses to his own title and ranking ambitions. Nadal may have won 2 of the past 3 encounters and taken far more sets away than he's conceded in those matches but if we extend the stats to their last 10 matches then Djokovic has won an astonishing 8 of those.
With Djokovic now looking back to his best that is a stat we cannot simply ignore, if Nadal is to stop the Djoker running away with the spoils this year and sealing a perfect comeback he will have to play some of the best tennis we have seen in a long time. Nadal may have beaten Djokovic in both Rome and Madrid but that was before Djokovic kicked into gear. This time round we will need to see the Rafa of old to stop the Serb from claiming capturing the top dog ranking.
Whatever happens we are guaranteed to see an epic spectacle of both defense and counter attack with two of the best baseline hustlers the game has ever seen. If you thought Wimbledon 2018 was a match to behold between these two wait for Paris and London!
Watch: Djokovic Prevail Over Nadal at Wimbledon in Epic 5 Set Battle
Comments