I only had time for one match prediction and preview yesterday at the Paris Masters, happily it came true with little problem. Marton Fucsovics and Benoire Paire faced off in Round 1/32 and Hungarian Fucsovics who is having the best year of his career watched Paire melt down on court with a series of double faults. This made the match a formality rather than a touch and go scenario, indeed by the time I checked on the score line it was already over. I was actually expecting a three sets match here so it was a pleasant surprise to see Fucsovics defeat Paire - 6-4, 6-4.
As eluded to in yesterdays article I felt Paire would repeat his usual mistakes of trying to go for too much out of impatience and boy does the Frenchman possess a barrel load of that. He hit 12 double faults in two sets and served at a first serve percentage rate of just 46% compared to Fucsovics at 55%. Paire was highly effective when his first serve landed but it didn't land often enough. He seems to go for Aces on his first and second serve - don't ask me why he keeps to this tact because it never works for an entire match. Having been a break up in the first set the Frenchman collapsed on serve in the seventh and ninth games allowing Fucsovics to come from a break behind to clinch the set 6-4.
For Fucsovics the second set was more assured, where as in the first he also had to defend a fair few break points on his serve, in the second he didn't allow Paire a single chance to break and took the decisive game himself early on in the set when in the third game Paire produced a series of double faults to gift the Hungarian the opportunity to take the initiative which he happily did.
Nadal vs Verdasco
Today we have a pair of curious matches. I will skip to the meat and bones of my main bet - Rafa Nadal to win in straight sets vs Fernando Verdasco. This is Nadal's first tournament in almost 2 months. After withdrawing from the US Open when two sets down to Del Potro we haven't seen the World Number One since. It will be interesting to see how his knee holds up today but I cannot resist the straight sets win for him here. His odds to beat Verdasco outright are 1.45 which are pretty generous considering Nadal's form this year, they are only this high because he's returning from injury and Verdasco has been playing some impressive tennis of later.
Even so I cannot see Verdasco claiming a set off Nadal, he may have secured some good victories against notable opponents of late but Nadal is a whole different level. Nadal is 16 to 3 on the head to head with Verdasco and has won their past two encounters in straight sets convincingly with their last match being last year at Indian Wells. He will be keen to finish the job here in straight sets, start as you mean to go on when coming back from injury so a straight sets win is always the desirable return in your first tournament back.
Match Prediction:
I'm liking Nadal at 1.92 for a 2-0 victory here. I think Verdasco will prove a tough cookie to shake off but I have a feeling Nadal will win both sets by a clear break - one set could go to a tie break but I'd be surprised. Although he will be a bit rusty after 7 weeks out, you cannot discount Nadal's general form this year that has seen him claim 3 Masters titles, 1 ATP Tour 500 title and the French Open. I am giving this outcome a 75% chance of coming true.
Fognini vs Fucsovics
Fabio Fognini like Marton Fucsovics is having the best year of his career. At the age of 30 Fognini up until the end of 2017 had only managed to collect 5 ATP titles from 13 years of turning professional. This year at 31 years of age he is has won 3 more including his first ever hard court tournament at Los Cabos in Mexico where he impressively took out Juan Martin del Potro in the final in straight sets - 6-4, 6-2. He was 3.75 odds to win that match and his baseline play was untouchable.
Coincidentally he was due to face Del Potro this month in the Beijing Semi Finals but had to withdraw due to an ankle injury. Since then he has come undone twice against Stefanos Tsitsipas in Stockholm then against today's opposition Marton Fucsovics last week in Vienna where he lost 2-1. Can the Italian Dynamo overturn that result today? Well at 2.00 odds for an outright victory against an opponent who looks solid but has no special weapons the answer is a resounding yes!
These are very good odds for Fognini considering he has already won three titles this year and possesses great talent and an assortment of shots - he's not a one dimensional player and a 70% Fognini can beat a 100% Fucsovics. I believe Fognini will turn up at above 70% today and look to exact revenge on last weeks defeat against Fucsovics having seen a different side to the Hungarian he will be prepared to fight a little harder if his power and talent alone aren't enough to get the job done.
Fucsovics who has won his Maiden title this year won't be an easy opponent to defeat and this could go to three sets as it did last week, so an outright bet on Fognini at 2.00 is the wise choice and the odds here are plenty.
Match Prediction:
I am giving Fognini at 65% chance of winning this one even though his odds are 2.00. Expect to see the drop shot deployed by the Italian on many occasions when Fucsovics becomes a little too comfortable behind the baseline. All that will be needed for the prediction to come off is for us to see Fognini as he was when winning his other 3 other titles this year and given this is now his third tournament back from injury he should be well adjusted to bring his near best tennis out on court in Paris.
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