There's some mouth watering clashes emerging in the Quarter Finals of the US Open as the business end of the US Open tournament comes around. Some QF lineup's have been set where as others are just a mere formality to come.
Out of those that have already been decided we have Rafa Nadal vs Dominic Thiem and Juan Martin Del Potro vs John Isner.
Yet to be decided but just a mere formality are Roger Federer vs Novak Djokovic.
Then we have one final draw which is a little more tricky to call but I personally think it will be David Goffin vs Kei Nishikori. I can see Goffin beating Cilic tonight even though he is the underdog where as Kei Nishikori is the favourite to go through against Philipp Kohlschreiber who upset Alexander Zverev in the last round and I think the Jap will dispatch the German comfortably 3-0 or 3-1.
I've already covered Djokovic vs Federer in good detail with past posts so today I am going to be focusing on what I see to be the more intriguing match out of the 4 Quarter Finals - Nadal vs Thiem.
Nadal vs Thiem: From Clay to Hard Courts: A Tough One to Call!
Nadal is the clear favourite here and everyone would be shocked to see Thiem dethrone the current champion here. But we already had a big upset in the previous round, the biggest yet from an odd's perspective when 7/1 Philipp Kohlschreiber knocked out Alexander Zverev. Thiem is half those odds to beat Nadal and he has a good shout at doing so tomorrow night.
Ironically Thiem like Nadal prefers clay, but unlike Nadal has an overall poor record on hard courts including both the Australian Open and US Open where his best result up until last night was Round 4 for both. This will be his maiden Quarter Final for a hard court Grand Slam and what an opponent to have to face - a three time and current US Open champion!
But if I think back to when Thiem played Nadal on clay in Madrid earlier this year and in Rome last year, if can can hit as big he is he did in both victories he is more than capable of another upset here. Whether he can take such performances into a 5 set match against Nadal remains to be seen, all 3 of his wins have come from best of 3 set matches and on Clay. But then Nadal's 7 win's against Thiem have also all come on Clay, they have never met on a hard court before which is why I find this match the most fascinating of the Quarter Finals from a strategic perspective.
If we are talking Grand Slams alone, Thiem has never managed to take a set off Nadal. He met him in the Semi Finals of the French Open last year and in the final for the same Grand Slam this year. Both matches went the same way - Nadal simply dominating from the back of the court giving the Austrian a real spanking!
Inspiration from Downing the Big South African
But if we take a look at Thiem's last match against Kevin Anderson we can see how well he has been hitting in this tournament. He knocked out Anderson in straight sets even though he was the under dog and had never beat him on a hard court. This was a remarkable result which he can use to inspire him to a possible win over Nadal tomorrow afternoon. Thiem is also favouring the space at the back of the courts in New York where he has adopted a similar position to that on clay standing deep behind the baseline and allowing him time to set for the big fore and backhand's he loves to hit.
Against Andersen he hit 42 winners against only 13 unforced errors where as Andersen produced 27 unforced errors. If Thiem wants a chance at beating Nadal he's going to have to produce the same if not better statistics, especially in terms of keeping his unforced errors down.
Nadal being the defending US Open champion took 4 sets to defeat Basilashvili and dropped serve twice. He has shown some weakness in New York having now dropped a set in both his previous two matches but it will take a special performance by Thiem to take 3 sets off him.
Nadal is 47-3 this year with his three losses coming at the Australian Open in January to Cilic in the Quarter Finals, in the Quarter Finals of the Madrid Open to Thiem and last months loss to Djokovic in the Semi Finals at Wimbledon. Thiem will have a psychological boost knowing he has beaten Nadal once this year even though he lost badly to him at Roland Garos.
In general Nadal has been playing high class tennis and won last months hard court Rogers Cup tournament in Toronto. He will be full of confidence coming into this Quarter Final and will be most people's pick to be in the final but I am going to go for Thiem to win this match. But you can tell he is not underestimating his Austrian rival. He had this to say after his win over Basilashvili...
It is going to be an interesting one, tough one, hopefully for both of us.
He's a fantastic player. He's a very powerful player. He's a great guy. Very good relationship with him. Happy for him that he's in quarter-finals here. Last year he lost a very tough match against Del Potro here... It is going to be a tough one.
I am going for an upset tomorrow, with Thiem winning with a possible correct score of going to be 3-1 or 3-2. I just have a feeling it's going to be his time on a hard court having never had any real success on the surface and he's probably playing the weakest of the big 3 right now in New York. I think Federer and Djokovic would have been tougher opponents than Nadal.
Thiem is just over 3/1 to win this with Nadal at 11/50. So he his a decent outside bet in this match for anyone looking for a long odds game to have a flutter on.
All photos from ATP World Tour website.
Video Archive of Interest
Thiem's Previous Match vs Andersen: US Open: 3-0
Nadal's Previous Match vs Basilashvili: US Open: 3-1
Last Meeting: Nadal vs Thiem: French Open Final: 2018: 3-0
Nadal vs Thiem: Madrid 2018 Final: 0-2: Thiem Ends Nadal's 21 Match Winning Streak
Is anyone going to dive in at the deep end with me and go for a Dominic Thiem win? What say you!
Comments