The story of the Greek Freak otherwise known as Stefanos Tsitsipas couldn't have been written any better if Homer or Plato themselves were to write a book on the would be exploits of the young fearless teenage tennis player taking on the giants of the ATP world. Right now this unknown Greek boy of only 19 years of age is the Hercules of men's tennis performing the impossible and taking out one by one some of the most feared players in the world of tennis. But tonight he faces an opponent more fierce than any other - it's the Greek Freak vs the Spanish Bull
Stefanos Tsitsipas last night overcame arguably his toughest test yet. I may sound terribly repetitive with this claim, afterall I already stated this when he overcame the odds to oust Djokovic and then again just a day later against Zverev but last night he came up against big serving Kevin Andersen - the big serving South African who knocked Roger Federer out of Wimbledon last month.
Greek Mythology Reflects the Greeks Impossible Path to Victory
One can easily make the comparison between Athens born Tsitsipas and the mighty Greek hero Hercules who had to fulfil twelve legendary labours at the request of the God Appollo in order to redeem his soul from eternal despair. These labours of Hercules were so unimaginable to the point they were deemed impossible to complete - you would need God like powers to finish them.
One can say Stefanos Tsitsipas's task in Toronto this year is remarkably similar to Hercules's Twelve labours. Where as Zverev was the Nemean Lion the Greek had to slay, Andersen was the Lernaean Hydra, but no doubt his greatest challenge in his life will be overcoming Nadal who the young Greek faces in the final tonight. Nadal is like the Cretan Bull that Hercules had to some how to tame to capture. Certainly this final task for Tsitsipas to claim his first ever ATP and Masters 1000 Title looks like the truly impossible labour too far, especially considering he failed at this task during the clay court season where the Spanish Bull destroyed him 6-2, 6-1 in the ATP Barcelona final.
Tsitsipas's may take some comfort in the fact that this final is on a hard court and not on clay. But this is definitely a small comfort, Nadal has slain pretty much every foe on a hard court before, this surface will not tame the bull, only Tsitsipas himself can try to do that with his racket.
Adversity Breeds Strength
Tsitsipas has certainly not been gifted any of his victories thus far. His three big wins from Djokovic, Zverev and Andersen have all come through dogged stubborn displays of simply refusing to bow down and be subjugated to all three opponents unique strengths. Perhaps the most impossible of victories came against Zverev when he had to save two match points and had to break back numerous times to stop Zverev running away with victory in both the second and third set.
Watch Tsitsipas Make History Over Andersen in the Semi Finals
Against Andersen he had to play a game of patience as he was given virtually no opportunities except one to break the big South African's service game in the second set. Andersen before the match looked virtually impossible to break, his serving has been so effective in Toronto that he easily brushed aside world number 5 Dimitrov in the previous round, making the Bulgarian look very average.
Against Djokovic he was forced to take the game to the Serb, realising Djokovic was never going to do the same with him. Instead Djokovic was happy to absorb the pressure from Tsitsipas and made the Greek really have to hit through him to win forcing him to come into the net on numerous occasions to finish points off. Tsitsipas stepped up to the plate perfectly showing Toronto fans he already has a forecourt game to fear putting away more than 2 thirds of his net points against Djokovic.
A Birthday Gift to Remember?
As the boy becomes a man today with Sunday being Tsitsipas 20th birthday, will he be able to give himself perhaps the best birthday gift to remember? One thing is for sure concerning the Greek Freak, he has already strung together a series of impressive victories which he can cherish going into his adulthood and where he looks to establish himself on tour in the top 10.
Tsitsipas Strengths vs Nadal
Tsitsipas has various strengths he can draw upon in order to try to defeat Nadal:
(1) Piercing forehand: Tsitsipas has a very flat forehand which he is capable of hitting through Nadal's defense. So far in this tournament and in Washington his forehand has been on song with far more winners than unforced errors coming from his racket. He will need to again be pretty much perfect with his stroke accuracy if he is going to do any damage to Nadal tonight.
(2) A mature net game for such a young player: Unlike Zverev, Tsitsipas already has an accomplished net game. He looks natural and composed when he comes to the net and he isn't afraid to come in to finish off points off quickly. In his last three matches against Djokovic, Zverev and Andersen he has won a healthy amount of points coming in to the net and the one's he has missed have mainly been due to great passing shots from his opponents. He has barely missed a smash or moderately challenging volley. Having a net game like the young Greek has is key to overcoming Nadal and preventing rallies going on for exhaustive periods of time which will always favour the Spanish bull.
(3) Big first serve: Tsitsipas has a very fast and flat first serve which when landing in gives him some cheap points and at worst easy follow ups at the net. His general first serve percentage during his matches in Toronto has been satisfactory at around 60% except when he played Zverev where it dropped to below 50%. Against Nadal he will need serve at his best level yet in the tournament - around 70% to stand a chance of winning. If you drops to 50% against Nadal he will loose quickly.
Tsitsipas Weaknesses vs Nadal
(1) Single handed backhand: Although this has been a weapon when he has time to hit it and it has proven resilient in many rallies against all his previous opponents in Toronto, it has been weak on returning against their kick serves. Nadal is a lefty so he will get some very wide angles on his serve out to Tsitsipas's backhand. The Greek will struggle to make any sort of convincing returns off the Nadal serve when returning from the left handside of the court meaning a lot more pressure will be placed on getting good returns on his forehand side. Nadal hits his serves with a mixture of slice and spin, they are awkward to return effectively.
(2) Second Serve: Tsitsipas's second serve has been very poor in the previous rounds. Against Andersen his second serve points won dropped to just 33% because he does not put enough pace on his second serve right now. Andersen was eating them alive. Against Zverev they weren't much better as he struggled to get near 50% of his second serve points won. In particular against Zverev this is what caused him to take so much time when holding his serves. Against someone like Nadal you can't afford to be serving so light on the second, he will punish Tsitsipas even harder than Andersen did.
(3) Fitness, Strength, Power: There is no doubt this youngster has some legs and he looked fresh against Andersen even after playing a very long match against Zverev the day before that lasted 2 hours 30 minutes. But now he has to face the strongest man in tennis in terms of endurance, athleticism and power. Tsitsipas is still very young and undeveloped physically, where he has age on his side he doesn't have the foundation Nadal has built over many years of hard work and solid training. He will suffer dramatically if he gets involved in any big rallies with Nadal. Nadal knows this and he will be looking to tire the youngster out quickly.
(4) Experience: Tsitsipas has only ever been in one ATP final - not bad for a 19 year old to even make one earlier this year, ironically he faced Nadal and got destroyed on clay. Although he is a very composed young player, he has never known victory over Nadal or what it takes to win a big final like this one. Nadal has been through every sort of final you could imagine and experience counts a great deal in finals when your under pressure, it allows you to relax more and believe you have what it takes to beat the best. I think even though Tsitsipas has shown he can hang with and beat some big names, Nadal is on a totally different level to the three previous opponents.
Spanish Bull Charges Past All His Opponents to the Final
Rafa Nadal could not have had more of an opposite run to the final compared to Tsitsipas. He has literally bull dozed his way to the final taking out all but one of his opponents in straight sets.
This will leave him fresh and raring to go in the final today.
Perhaps his most note worthy opponent was Quarter Finalist Marin Cilic who for a brief moment looked like he may stop the world number on in his tracks after taking the first set 6-2 and breaking him twice in the process. But to honestly think he was going to beat Nadal was probably a fools hope, even when considering it was Cilic who took Nadal to 5 sets in January's Australian Open final before he had to retire in the fifth leaving the croat a free path to the final. In this encounter Nadal came back in typical bruising fashion taking the next two sets 6-4, 6-4. This was a commendable effort by Cilic as no other opponent had managed to take a set off him, never mind to win a set 6-2.
In his Semi Final Nadal saw off hard hitting Russian - Karen Khachanov 7-6, 6-4. Khachanov who at 6ft 6 inches and built like an ox has a crunching serve and forehand is an opponent to be weary of. He hinted at possibly troubling Nadal in the first set tie break but faded once he failed to win the first set.
Watch Nadal Charge Past Big Hitting Russian Khachanov
The Bull is on a Rampage As He Hunts for Hard Court Titles
What probably makes this final worse for Tsitsipas is that this is Nadal's first hard court tournament of the season and he will be extra keen to kick start the season with a big win in Toronto.
He has only lost 3 times this year and won 35 times. His most recent against Novak Djokovic on grass in the Semi Final of Wimbledon where he went down dramatically in 5 sets. Earlier losses were against Dominic Thiem who literally played a shot perfect match in Madrid to beat him on clay in two sets and as previous mentioned against Cilic in January where he had to retire in the 5th set of the Australian Open.
Amongst his title tally this season he has claimed two Masters 1000's and the French Open.
Big Bounty of Hard Court Titles
Last year on hard courts Nadal won the US Open beating Kevin Andersen in three straight sets and the Beijing ATP. He is no chump on a hard court. Over his career he has won 4 Grand Slam titles and 13 ATP titles on hard courts and at the age of 22 he even won Olympic gold when he beat Chilean Gonzalez in two straight sets in Beijing.
Nadal's Strengths vs Tsitsipas
Some of Nadals strengths have already been covered in Tsitsipas weaknesses vs Nadal. So I won't repeat the ones I have already mentioned.
(1) Heavy & Consistent Top Spin Forehand: Although Tsitsipas has a piercing forehand capable of hitting through Nadal's defense it needs to work pretty near 80% for the entire match to stand a chance. On the other hand Nadal clears the net with such height on his top spin forehand that he has a much less chance of producing unforced errors whilst also causing a lot of aggravation for the opponent through deep top spin shots that kick up fast into their hitting zone. The spin and depth of Nadals forehand will mean Tsitsipas will not be able to get so many opportunities to come into the court and hit winners against Nadal as he did against Djokovic. In particular if Nadal targets Tsitsipas backhand, with it being single handed, he will struggle to get a solid and troublesome connection on the ball leaving Nadal to clear up at the net. Tsitsipas will most likely be forced deep on his backhand because I cannot see him even trying what Federer adopted to beat Nadal - that is to take the ball early on the half volley.
(2) Exceptionally Reliable and Dangerous Double Handed Backhand: Nadal's backhand rarely breaks down and is also a weapon of choice on many occasions. He probably has the best double handed backhand for reliability, especially at the moment but he can also flatten his backhands out to hit lethal angled shots cross court. Unlike Tsitsipas who is weak against top spin on his backhand Nadal is not weak against a flat shot on his. He has so much experience having to return backhands such as Federer's who hits his in a similar style to Tsitsipas, obviously though Tsitsipas is no way as good as Federer, Nadal can gobble up the Greek's backhand shots for any that fall even slightly short of the baseline.
(3) Reliable and Awkward Serve: Nadal rarely ever hits double faults and his second serve has plenty of work on it to make it difficult for any returner to get a clear chance of hitting a winner. Being a lefty he also has the advantage of serving very wide against a right handed player's backhand like Tsitsipas. He will have the opportunity to really go to work on Tsitsipas single hander.
(4) Focus: Nadal rarely if ever looses focus on any single point during a match where as Tsitsipas is young, will be feeling it physically a little after his last two three set encounters and will have to keep focus in a way he has never had to before if he wants to win this final. Focus on court is Nadal's way of existing where as for the young Greek it's a real mental challenge and a big ask. He will no doubt have lapses in concentration as he tires from some inevitable long rallies with Nadal and this is where Nadal can seize the opportunity to slay the beast whilst it's wounded.
Nadal's Weaknesses vs Tsitsipas
None...
I have to be a little kind to Tsitsipas though so I would say that Nadal is beatable but as we have seen with players such as Dominic Thiem who Tsitsipas beat early in thjs tournament, you have to bring one hell of a game to Nadal to beat him, Thiem did this for the entire 2 sets when he shocked Nadal in Madrid earlier this year. But Thiem has been on tour for many more years than the Tsitsipas and has had plenty of experience facing Nadal. This will be only Tsitsipas's second meeting with him. He will have to make 70 to 80% of his attempted forehand and backhand winners and be serving at 70-80% on first service basis to have a chance of winning.
Nadal obviously plays with heavy top spin so he doesn't hit clear winners off his forehand so much preferring to beat people into submission instead with depth and spin. If Tsitsipas can get on the front foot against him regularly he can win points against the Spanish bull and maybe take him to a third set tie break at best where it can be more pot luck than anything else.
Verdict
Nadal will win this match in 2 sets. I'd love to think Tsitsipas can pull off another miracle match but this is a step too far so early in his career even for a lad I have compared to the great mythological hero Hercules, he literally would have to become a modern day version of him to tame the Spanish Bull and snatch victory.
Nadal who has only conceded one set in the whole tournament, is a three time champion in Toronto. He has great memories of finals here famously beating Andre Agassi in three sets back in 2005 and crushing Milos Raonic in 2013 6-2 6-2. Tsitsipas may one day have his moment in the sun against Nadal, but it's not going to be tonight on his 20th Birthday, but there are worse gifts to receive on your 20th birthday than being able to stand on the other side of the net in a Masters 1000 final against the World Number 1 and one of the greatest players of all time.
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