Dominic Thiem yesterday at 3.20 overcame Nadal in the Barcelona ATP 500 in straight sets to set up a clash with Russian Daniil Medvedev in the final today. Thiem who previously in the quarter finals looked in his element on clay vs Guido Pella came out in confident style vs Nadal and must have taken even greater satisfaction from yesterdays win due to the fact that last time these two met at the US Open last year he came so close to beating Nadal over 5 sets and lost out by a whisker in a final set tie break.

For Thiem beating Nadal on clay is nothing new, he has a track record of atleast claiming a few victories vs the clay court master in Madrid 2018 and Rome 2017. But what is new is the fact that this is the first time Nadal has lost in his home tournament in a Semi Final or Final.

I didn't get time to post on a prediction for this match yesterday unfortunately but I did have Thiem down to win having watched his full match vs Pella he played beautifully from the back of the court. There's something about the Austrian that reminds me of Federer, not in his style of play (although he does have a great single handed backhand too) but in his quiet and composed demeanour on court. He doesn't kick up a fuss or show too much emotion when he's down or struggling. Yesterday he was neither however, taking the game to Nadal from the first game on with aggressive tennis that saw the Austrian pin the Spaniard to the back of the court.

Nadal having been upset in the Semi Final of Monte Carlo crashes out of his second clay court tournament in a row this year. Who would have expected that? Well for me this is more due to the quality of the performances of his opponents rather than Nadal himself. I am sure his fans will come up with excuses why he lost, like he just wasn't playing at his best but sometimes when you face players playing the way both Fognini and Thiem did, that has an impact on your own performance so credit has to be allotted to those willing to take on the 11 times French Open champion with aggression and conviction. Both those traits were demonstrated with admirable quality by the Italian and Austrian in their respective semis.

Thiem like Fognini has a lot of power from the back of the court and hitting flat and hard is exactly how to beat Nadal on clay. There's no doubt given Nadal's losses in his first two clay tournaments more players will feel emboldened when playing him next, especially at the French Open.

With regards to the final today, there's nothing much to take in terms of betting. Thiem is too lower odds, Medvedev isn't worth the bet for me. As much as I admire the Russian who is playing brilliant measured tennis, Thiem is in his element on clay. I do think this match has the chance of going to a third set, so I am going to take the bet of 3 sets in the match at 2.62.