Yesterday I had a bit of a stinker with my match predictions, everything I said needed to happen for two of my player picks to come through didn't. Notably Kyle Edmund could not find a way through Fernando Verdasco in the third set missing two easy volleys on serve late in third which cost him the match. These volleys were basic regular text book ones, not even troublesome from a technical point of view but he netted both of them to drop his serve and the match. Rewind and in the first set he also missed 3 break point opportunities on Verdasco's second serve failing to land any of the returns in to square the set. His best but not enough came in the second set. It was just one of those games for the Brit who lost 2-1.
As far as next gen Russian Khachanov was concerned, he also didn't play any of the tennis I said he needed to play to overcome Nishikori. Last weeks Moscow winner needed to slow the pace of the ball down but he refused to budge from his one dimensional tennis and got spanked for it. That was a big lesson that I think the Russian needed to learn because he's been too stubborn with just powering his way through games and abandoning the aim of developing softer ball skills and some vital net skills. Something his fellow countryman Daniil Medvedev is learning to do better in order to overcome players with good defensive skills like Nishikori.
Consolations
Thankfully the young Greek Tsitsipas who was my third prediction came through against Germany's Gojowczyk in straight sets. As did the match I had previously analysed the day before which was played out yesterday between Medvedev and Seppi. Medvedev was around 1.80 to win in straight so it wasn't all that bad.
Today's Match in Vienna
Today I am just interested in one particular match which I think is rather evenly balanced and will be a cracker to watch. Another next gen player who has claimed an ATP title this year - Borna Coric is looking dangerous this month. He shocked Federer for a second time this year when he beat him in the Semi Finals in Shanghai earlier this month producing a rock solid performance against the Swiss and fared well against a virtually unstoppable Djokovic in the final.
His first Federer win was in the final at Halle on grass where he won his only ATP title of the year so far. Today he is up against an opponent who rarely budges on serve and will prove difficult to break down. Kevin Anderson in the twilight of his career was a finalist at Wimbledon this year for the first time and also claimed the New York title back in February beating Sam Querrey in the final. In the Laver Cup last month he shocked the Chicago crowd by taking out Djokovic for team world and represents a real threat to one of the best next generation players.
The question for Coric is can he break the Anderson serve or is he to rely on a series of tie breaks to get through? The latter is a rather risky strategy but the former is possible for a player who has demonstrated resilient and reflexive defensive skills against both Federer and Djokovic this year. He also downed Anderson back in March at Indian Wells where having dropped the first set losing his serve twice, he managed to break Anderson in the first game of the second. He subsequently only afforded the South African one break point chance for the whole of that set winning it 6-3. In the final set both players lost one service game a piece though Coric afforded Anderson 4 break points to Anderson affording Coric 2.
Going to a tie break Coric in the third stayed firm on serve and broke Anderson twice. The tale of that match was it was pretty much nip and tuck all the way. A break here or there made the difference. Expect this match to play out the same way, mightily close but given Coric's ascendancy as a young player growing in confidence he will likely get the better of Anderson over 3 sets due to his pace and defense at the back of the court. This will be an excellent test for the youngster and given before his win at Indian Wells he had lost his 3 previous meetings with Anderson he will be keen to consolidate that first win with a second here.
Anderson beat this months Beijing winner Basilashvili in his first round tie in Vienna. That was a tricky affair and the South African lost the first set after getting over powered by the Georgian. He also had to save a match point in the second set tie break so it wasn't a dominant win by the World Number 8. Yesterday he was lucky enough to get a bye as his opponent and home favourite Jurgen Melzer had to pull out due to sickness. So Anderson will be well rested ahead of his clash tonight.
Coric has played two matches so far in Vienna. Coincidentally in both matches he lost the first set before winning the second by 6-0 and going on to win the third set. He won't want a repeat of those two scores against Anderson, instead he will be looking to take the first set against the Wimbledon finalist. The last thing Coric will want is to be facing down a buoyed Anderson on serve in the second set if he loses the first. Anderson is notoriously difficult to break on serve so Coric will feel the pressure if he drops the first set here.
Match Prediction:
Coric will take great comfort in how well he played in Shanghai and that he managed to beat Federer in straight sets with a clear break in both. In Vienna his confidence levels will be sky high after his first two matches and I believe he is likely to overwhelm Anderson over three sets with his persistence and power from the back. I think he will claim a second win here against the power server. Coric is the slight underdog here at 2.00 to win so those odds look rather attractive.
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