Japan known as the land of the rising sun is a country positioned on the very edge of Asia and thus one of the reasons why it gets it's name, it can get some pretty impressive sun rises and sunsets, but I'm not here to waffle on about the worlds natural beauty in such a way only David Attenborough can get away with without sending readers to sleep. My big question is will such a radiant and enchanting sun rise to shine brightly on the fortunes of one Nick Kyrgios as it did 2 years ago in Tokyo when he beat David Goffin in the final 2-1 to win his third title that year?
Kygrios has actually had a decent year on tour considering his many nuisance injuries, he's 23 wins to 11 losses. But those wins have not translated in to much success, he's won just one ATP title at the very beginning of the year in Brisbane where he beat Ryan Harrison in the final. In that tournament he actually beat a couple of decent opponents like Grigor Dimitrov who was ranked third in the world at that time and Alexander Dolgopolov who was in good form before he faced Harrison. It was an excellent start to the year and things looked bright for him.
But since early January he's come undone to bigger names than himself in many of the competitions and he can hide behind his short lived injuries all he wants - he's just not managed to get over the line this year against tough opponents. Kygrios has failed to down a single big name since Brisbane, here are his results:
vs Grigor Dimitrov (Ranked 8th) (R16: Australian Open: 1-3)
vs Alexander Zverev (Ranked 5th) (R16: Miami Open: 0-2)
vs Roger Federer (Ranked 2nd) (Semi Finals: Stuttgart: 1-2)
vs Marin Cilic (Ranked 6th) (Semi Finals: Queens Club, London: 0-2)
vs Kei Nishikori (Ranked 28th) (R32: Wimbledon: 0-3)
vs Juan Martin Del Potro (Ranked 3rd) (R16: Cincinnati Open: 1-2)
vs Roger Federer (Ranked 2nd) (R32: US Open: 0-3)
In some of the matches he's been in contention, for example taking Federer to a third set in Stuttgart though he got comprehensively beaten by the Swiss at the US Open and then again in the Laver Cup. He should have beaten Del Potro in Cincinnati but went into melt down mode because Del Potro had a very long toilet break after the second set - again Kyrgios not being able to keep it together mentally. At the Queens club he again came close in the Semi Finals losing in a couple of tie breaks to Marin Cilic. He's just not be able to get over the line when facing Top 10 opponents.
So perhaps history can be kind on Kygrios in Tokyo and present him with a second title of the year? He will have to do what he has been unable to do this year to win in Tokyo, beat top 10 opponents. Back in 2016 I would say the sun shone brightly on Kygrios more due to the tournament lineup being far weaker than this week in Tokyo. Here we have some tough cookies he will have to break.
Kygrios's likely route to victory will go as follows:
Gasquet, Anderson, Nishikori, Raonic
It's a line up packed with fire power and each of the three players beyond Gasquet who he meets next will pose him a different and somewhat insurmountable challenge based on his previous results this year.
Gasquet is by far the weakest opponent compared to the three other likely ones, he doesn't have a big serve so Kygrios can ride out that match off his own serve if it's firing. But Anderson has had an excellent year, he even defeated Djokovic recently in the Laver Cup and let's not forget his Wimbledon heroics against Federer. He will be the sternest test for Kygrios because the way he has been playing he won't give Kygrios anything for free. His serve can prove unbreakable so watch that go down to a couple of tightly fought tie breaks.
Nishikori covers the court so well that if Kygrios overcomes Anderson he's going to have to hit very well to overcome the Japanese player who will be determined to win on home soil and who beat Kygrios earlier this year comfortably at Wimbledon 3 sets to 0. Even if Kygrios some how defeats Nishikori he could well face Raonic in the final. Milos Raonic has a thunderous serve that is even harder than Kygrios's and his forehand and approach play improve every year - he won't be in a charitable mood either as he aims to win his first ATP title since returning from injury.
In other words for the sun to shine brightly on the fortunes of Nick Kygrios in Tokyo he's going to have to play his best tournament of the year and go through a whole host of world class players. We can all say Kygrios has the potential with his potent serve and explosive power on court, but does he have the consistency, the mental focus and the belief that he's actually cut out for more than just a few show boating points that make good clips for the tennis archives?
I'd like to say yes but if current form is anything to go by, Kygrios may just defeat himself rather than try to fulfil his potential! Here's hoping 2016 will repeat itself here, that Kygrios will keep a low profile on court and let his racket do the talking!
Ending on a positive note, he came through in straight sets in his first round tie against potential banana skin opponent and one of the home favourites Yoshihito Nishioka, who was last weeks surprise Shenzhen ATP winner. Nishioka plays similarly to Nishikori though not quiet at his level but he is a frustrating player to play at times, he retains the ball extremely well which is how he defeated opponents such as Dennis Shapovalov and Fernando Verdasco last week. For Kygrios to defeat him in straight sets is a great result to launch his title bid from.
Watch Kygrios Beat Last Weeks Surprise Shenzhen ATP Winner in Tokyo
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