Tennis / atp basel indoor
Basel ATP Final Prediction: Tonight Copil Can Shock Federer
Marius Copil who the devil is he? I would hear anyone say that I dropped his name to, tennis fan or not. The world number 93 is hardly a household name in sports circles and has enjoyed far from an illustrious career on the ATP Tour. He's been around for some time now and at the age of 28 why would he suddenly mount a charge to win his first ATP title and of all the players to try it against - why against Roger Federer in Basel on the Swiss Maestro's home soil where he has won 8 times out of 11 finals? I guess players can't simply choose when they strike red hot form - just look at the contrasting first and second half of Novak Djokovic's year. So arguably for someone like Marius Copil if your only going to get a few shots at winning an ATP title, why wouldn't you want one of those to be against one of the sport's greatest ever champions? What a memorable victory that would be! This year has seen many a player win their first ever ATP titles, but most of those I have covered are next generation players such as Daniil Medvedev, Kyle Edmund and Stefanos Tsitsipas. Copil is hardly a spring chicken and before 2018 had never even reached a final on tour. Well the Romanian has now reached two finals this year, one back in February in Sofia, Bulgaria at a 250 event and now in Basel at the far more prestigious 500 event, host to many a great name past and present. Copil whose favourite surface is indoor hard courts such as Basel took out Alexander Zverev yesterday in three sets having previously swatted aside Alexander's brother Mischa in his first qualification round match. He also shocked Marin Cilic earlier in the tournament solidifying his status as the true giant killer of this tournament this year. Does he have enough left in his reserves to kill the biggest giant this tournament has ever seen? Copil was impressive at the net yesterday vs Zverev in his Semi Final victory in Basel Copil was my best prediction come true of yesterdays action at 4.50 to win where I had him as an outside bet to beat Zverev for various reasons I highlighted in my previous article here but in particular due to his strong serving performances this tournament. Admittedly I was by no means convinced he would win last night, having him down as just an outside bet to overcome the next gen's most successful player. Against Zverev he produced some sublime serve and volley tennis along with a whole host of great approach shots and touches at the net during rallies. Take a look at the action below from yesterday's Semi Final. Watch Copil Upset Zverev with Some Excellent Net Game Tennis In that match over 3 sets he landed a staggering 26 aces from his serve. He has one of the fastest serves in the game. Not bad for a player only 6ft 3inches tall - hardly a John Isner or Kevin Anderson. Even his opponent last night Zverev stands 3 inches taller yet only managed 9 aces. Yesterday Federer was helped by a lack lustre performance from Medvedev but looked pretty solid Tonight Copil faces the reigning Basel champion who will be eager to hold on to his crown, hold onto his 500 ATP ranking points and delight his home supporters with a 9th title win. Federer has not done particularly well this year by his standards on the ATP tour in terms of titles won. He has claimed only 2 ATP titles at Stuttgart and Rotterdam, no Masters where as last year he had 3 Masters titles and 1 x 500 by this point in the year. Federer will want to win this one to gain momentum heading into the Paris Masters next week. Yesterday I had Federer down to beat Medvedev in 2 sets at 1.80. I just felt he was going to put in one of his more consistent performances and reduce his unforced error account off his forehand. His performance was decent though he still produced 24 unforced errors. What helped his straight sets win at 6-1, 6-3 was the fact that Medvedev had a real rotten game hitting only 10 winners to 27 unforced errors. Compared to the Russian's recent performances including his win over Nishikori in the Tokyo ATP 500 final this was an abysmal display. Lets compare Federer's and Copil's performances in victory over their opponents in the Semi Final. Federer's Stats vs Medvedev vs Copil's Stats vs Zverev Federer Copil Aces: 6 26 Winners: 24 48 Unforced Errors: 22 54 Net Points Won: 58% (10/17) 62.5% (20/32) First Serve Percentage: 55% 53% First Serve Points Won: 87% 85% Second Serve Points Won: 40% 44% Break Points Saved: 2/3 6/6 Break Points Converted: 4/9 2/3 As you can see both players yesterday were highly effective on first serve when landing them in but both had well below 60% success rate. Both also played aggressively going for a lot of winners though Copil's unforced error account exceeded his number of winners. He definitely was living on the edge more than Federer. Copil was highly resilient when saving break points and effective with converting his opportunities. Even though Zverev had more chances on Copils serve, Copil was more clinical. The danger here for Federer is if Copil manages to increase his first serve percent as his ace count could go through the roof giving him a lot of cheap points and allowing him to atleast get a look at returning Federer's first serve and scoring a few surprise breaks on the Federer serve. Copil lands more aces than Federer on first serves. There's no doubt here that Copil will look to take the game to Federer on his serve and be aggressive in coming in at the net. If we see how many times he came into the net yesterday even when considering he played one more set than Federer it's quiet extraordinary for a player ranked 93rd in the world to be so aggressive against a Top 10 player and succeed. The problem he could face is Federer being the better passer of opponents coming into the net than Zverev. But Federer's unforced error account has been rather high this tournament so when under pressure he may crack even more on both fore and backhand wings. Basel Final ATP Indoor: Match Prediction: I give Copil around a 30% of winning tonight's match. Given his odds are 6.00 to win this one he is certainly worth speculating on here. It will be a fascinating match where we will see two players with a great one handed backhands battle it out not just from the baseline but at the net two making this a rather uniquely contested final in Basel. I'd love to see the Romanian win his first ever ATP title in Basel - he's certainly saved his best tennis of the year for one of the best indoor tournaments of the year and given Federer has had plenty of glory here over the years this one would mean so much more to Copil than Federer. Bonus Prediction: Vienna Final ATP Indoor: Anderson was as focused as ever when beating Verdasco yesterday in the Semi Finals of Vienna Yesterday I went for an Anderson win over Verdasco in addition to a straight sets win. The latter didn't transpire but the former did come through for me. Tonight Anderson faces Nishikori in the final in Vienna. His odds are very generous given the power of his serve and his form. He is the clear underdog to win at 3.00. I really like his odds here. He defeated Nishikori earlier this year when winning his only ATP title in 2018 so far in New York. He subsequently lost to the Japanese number one in an Exhibition match on grass in the summer. Competitively Head to head Nishikori leads 4-2 but Anderson has claimed some big scalps this year including defeating Federer at Wimbledon and Djokovic at the Laver Cup so although Nishikori has looked impressive in Vienna Anderson will not be intimidated by him. Indeed it will be Nishikori who is likely to have to work harder on serve. Anderson reigns down aces with little effort where as Nishikori looks to win service points more from his rallying abilities. If Anderson remains hot on serve he can take Nishikori over three sets. I actually give Anderson a 60% chance of winning here and believe the bookies are rating Nishikori's chances of winning way too high.