Today we have another slim week. The Carabao and the FA Cup are taking place and we have just 13 games in the regular leagues. Yeovil and MK Dons are catching up with the rest of the League Two, while the National League has its Matchday 13.

The Matchday 13, 13 games in total,... if you're a superstitious person don't bet today :-)

League Two

My model went with a draw here, while I'm staying away from this game. Yeovil is a strange side. They'll travel to Newport and destroy the home team 6-0, then in the next game they are playing (at home) they will lose 3-0 to Swindon.

National League

The strange fascination with the Dag&Red that my model has continues into this week, too. Now, it thinks that one of the worst sides will win against one of the best sides in the league. I don't see it happening and I attribute that to the historical performance of Dag&Red. This season they are a threat to no one.

There's one game I'm interested in: Salford v Hartlepool. Here we have the best home side hosting the best away side of the league. Both the model and the bookies are favoring here the home team, but I think this is a good setup for two plays: a draw and the both teams to score.

Now, let's talk about the model's favorite pick for this matchday:

Barnet v Havant & Waterlooville

The bookies put it @1.819 while the model thinks it's closer to @1.30. Barnet had a decent start than they've lost to a high-flying Leyton Orient. The game after they've failed to use the home advantage and win against AFC Fylde (FT 1-1).

This game is an excellent opportunity to get back to the winning ways.

Havant & Waterlooville is the side with the worst defense in the league. In the 12 games they've played so far, they've conceded a whooping 25 goals and we can expect that Barnet will help them keep the league's record going on.

This is my bet for today.

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Thank you for reading and good luck!