Short analysis of the teams FC Porto and GD Chaves followed by a betting tip.
FC Porto
Porto had a great last season and won the league with 7 points more than Benfica. The season started not too bad this year, with 3 won and 1 lost game. 13 / 5 goals is also quite impressive. 5 of the 13 goals they scored in one game, precisely against Chaves only 1 month ago. Chaves had a red card, but the game was already 4:0 in minute 80', thus this is not an important factor
GD Chaves
Last season they finished 6th with 47 points, 41 points less than Porto. The season did not begin good for them with only 1 win and 3 lost matches. To qualify for the cup they won in the penalties against FC Arouca who currently only play in the 2nd League.
Head-to-Head
The head to head is a clear thing: 7 wins Porto, 1 for Chaves. As you can see above, the wins got always higher for the last 5 games. What's interesting, the only win for Chaves was precisely a cup match. Chaves didn't even score in the last 4 games, while Porto scored 14 goals!
Conclusion
This looks like a clear handicap game to me and that is exactly my bet. I am a little nervous about 2 things: FC Porto doesn't seem to take the cup always too serious, last year for example they only got 1 point in the group stage. The other thing is that the Champions League is about to start. Porto has to play in Germany against Schalke next week. This is a very important game in a close group they don't want to lose. I can imagine Porto will play only with a B-Team. However, at the moment I think this will be enough.
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