This past NFL season I won a few hundred in freeplay on the XBET.ag bookie site so I've been slowly playing it over the NFL and now NBA season. Yesterday I logged in a saw a logo similar to the one above advertising the Warriors/Spurs over/under saying the UNDER is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings followed by a "bet now" as seen above. I don't know about you, but when my bookie is trying to "help" me take a side, I think it's safe to run the other way and fast. Last nights Spurs Warriors game went way over the total and not only did I lay the free play on the over, but I took the alternate spread over at +180 odds and that came in too.
In the NBA my handicapping I would say is "subpar", over the long haul I'm less than 50% overall in picking games. I have however noticed a trend, and when you notice a trend, stick to it and bet it. Any edge you have can be huge and one that I've found is in any nationally televised game(ESPN, TNT, ABC, NBATV). Typically these games have a relatively small spread if the teams are evenly matched but a disproportionate amount of time the home teams over perform giving you a huge gambling edge if it's the right matchup. This doesn't play out every time, and sometimes there are other factors to consider instead of just the home team in a nationally televised game. But it does give me a "leg up" on the line and what to do with it. Also the overs tend to come in a little more often in these games than they otherwise do and sometimes by huge margins like last night. It happened in both games incidentally with the Wizards Bucks(home team) game having an over/under 229 and Bucks favored by -11.5, final score was 148-129 Bucks. In the Spurs Warriors(home team) game the line was set at -15 in favor of the Warriors with the over/under set at 232. Final score of that game came in at 141-102 Warriors. Both home teams covered the spread easily and both games went way over the total and both games were televised on ESPN.
In tonights game I put a little bit of freeplay on the over in the Lakers/Boston game, a little on the alternate spread over and a little on the Lakers to cover the +8.5 point spread as a road team. These may not come in but I think they're solid bets given the game and situation of the teams involved. Currently the game is at half time with a score of 66-57 in favor of Boston, pretty close on the spread and on pace to hit the over which was set at 228 for this game. We'll see how the 2nd half plays out but I'm hoping I hit all the bets I placed.
Do you have any strategies you use when betting/handicapping the NBA? Let me know in the comments. Thanks for reading.
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