Week 1 of the NFL season has already kicked off with the Packers knocking off the Bears on Thursday night. The Sunday sleight of games kick off tomorrow at 1PM EST. I wanted to write up a few of the games I like from a betting angle and maybe give some leans as well even though I'll be passing on the game for reasons I will mention. I tried this last year and I was just not on the ball so going to give this another go this season and see if I can't do better, hard to imagine I do much worse but here goes nothing.

The Two Games I'm Betting

The first game I'm betting is the Indianapolis Colts +6.5 playing in Los Angeles against the Chargers. The Colts lost Andrew Luck to retirement right before the season started so this line has went from Chargers by -3 to the current line. The Colts were expected to be much improved this season with an outside shot at making the Super Bowl. With Luck out it's easy to see why the betting public has gravitated away from them. Not me though, the Chargers are notoriously bad at home, they are missing their starting RB and left tackle and that can be trouble for any team facing those problems. I don't know if they win it outright but I expect this to be a close game and well within a TD. Playing the Colts +6.5.

Next game I like is the Rams travelling to Carolina to play the Panthers. Rams currently favored by -2.5. This has some signature "stay away" trends (super bowl loser, opening on the road, cross country trip) but I'm bucking all of them. The Panthers are led by Cam Newton who had shoulder surgery back in January to repair a nagging injury from last season and then injured his ankle in the preseason. It's up in the air just how effective he will be and if he's anything less than 100% that could spell trouble for the Panthers. The Rams are expected to have a fully healthy Todd Gurley available along with Cooper Kupp who is returning from injury and looked really good in workouts. This team averaged 33 points per game last season as well and if they put up anything close to that number I think they win the game comfortably.

Other Games I Like

Giants +7 vs the Cowboys, This is just too many points to lay in a season opening division game. Passing though because of how bad Eli Manning can be, he might single handedly lose the cover on a late pick 6 or something else stupid.

Denver -2 at Oakland on MNF, Denver looks to be much improved this season and there are no signs the train wreck that Jon Gruden has turned out to be is in any kind of remission. Their big free agent acquisition Antonio Brown is stuck in a "will he won't he" play Monday night with the latest that he won't after Gruden a day earlier announced the plan is to play him. I love looking for motivation in the games I select and it's hard to find an angle I'm comfortable putting money on in this game. Maybe the Oakland players rally in the fact "they don't need AB" or maybe Denver is a little less engaged thinking they have an easier game without facing him. Or maybe Oakland throws in the towel first game of the year with all the distractions and Denver cruises. I don't want to bet on either situation honestly and will just watch this one as a fan even though my hunch is Denver comes in and dominates the game.

Betting / colts

Week 1 NFL Sunday Bets

Week 1 NFL Sunday Bets

Week 1 NFL Sunday Bets

NFL parlay paid 6.7/1 odds #winner

NFL parlay paid 6.7/1 odds #winner

NFL parlay paid 6.7/1 odds #winner