India arrived in England in confident mood. They unleashed young left-arm chinaman bowler Kuldeep Yadav on the hosts and won the T20 series 2-1. Going into the ODI games they again blew England away in the first match as their batsmen put in a performance that suggested they really meant business on this tour. However, the remaining 2 ODIs saw a meek Indian side comfortably beaten as that early impetus faded away. Going into the Test series, Virat Kohli came close to pulling off victory for his side in the 1st match before familiar failings set in at Lord's as England inflicted a 4th straight defeat on the tourists to take a 2-0 Test series lead.
The fact that India have managed to hall themselves back from the precipice by winning the 3rd Test in such a commanding manner is credit to their team spirit and willingness to win. Confidence must now be much higher around the Indian dressing room than it was 2 weeks ago and they will be looking to translate that belief into another positive result down in Southampton which would ensure a deciding match at the Oval next week.
For England, the relatively long break that they have had within the context of this series will have given them the chance to go away, lick their wounds and try to learn from the lessons of the Trent Bridge Test. Much like India in the 3rd Test, England need a positive start to the match in order to get themselves ahead of the game. The series is so finely poised and I have a feeling that we will see 2 fantastic Test matches over the next couple of weeks as these 2 sides go hammer and tongs to seal victory!
The Rose Bowl - Southampton
One of the newer International venues in England having only hosted it's first match in 2003, the Rose Bowl or Ageas Bowl is one of the most modern grounds around. The arena itself is sunk, almost like a gladiatorial amphitheatre into the side of a hill and unlike many English grounds it is surrounded by green fields and countryside.
This will be just the 3rd time that a Test match has been held at the Rose Bowl with Hampshire benefiting from Yorkshire's Headingley ground under going a major face lift by nipping in and claiming the rights to host the 4th Test.
Rain and Kumar Sangakara denied England during the inaugural Test match played against Sri Lanka in 2016. England completed a comfortable victory over India in their last Test at the Rose Bowl, a win that helped them level the series at 1-1 and turn the tide on a previously dominate India side.
In terms of pitch conditions I would expect that the Rose Bowl will be a good batting strip with sides needing to score big runs in their first innings to get ahead of the game and put pressure on the opposition. This season in the county championship the average score across all innings has been 333 which suggests that we are unlikely to see a pitch with too many demons in it. Yes, there is likely to be a bit of green tinge to it first up, but this is England and it's practically September. Top orders will have to fight hard to see off the new ball and then look to capitalise after 35-40 overs.
Of course weather conditions are always a big factor in cricket and England in particular. During the interlude between the 3rd and 4th Test matches it has become apparent that summer proper is now over in the UK, with day time highs of about 20C and night time lows down to single digits. With more rain having been around in the last 10days as well we can expect to see a lusher square and outfield on top of the cooler conditions and as a result there is every chance the ball will swing.
England - Consistently inconsistent
I've written before about England's inconsistency in recent years. There just seems to be an edge missing from their game over the last few years. The very best teams in any sport are always hungry for more success but I don't really get that feeling watching the Baylis & Root Test side. Far too often the motivating factor for this side seems to be criticism from the press and fans. It shouldn't need that to get professional athletes fired up for a contest like this, they should be able to do it themselves.
Recent history suggests though that this England team has what Crystal Palace manager Ian Dowie once termed as "bouncebackability". This is particularly true in home Tests, where under Baylis and Root they have always managed to come back from defeats with an immediate big win.
Another stat that will cheer England fans is that it has been over 10 years since a touring side beat them in 2 consecutive Tests - that being the 2008 South Africa team.
The bad news for England is that Chris Woakes who has just returned from injury is not fit to play which means an immediate recall for Sam Curran. On the other hand Jonny Bairstow has been passed fit to play despite sustaining a fracture to his finger less than a fortnight ago. Bairstow will not keep wicket and instead will play as a specialist batsman, promoted up the order to number 4 with Ollie Pope missing out to the recalled Moeen Ali.
While the current England team have been blessed with a lot of all-round options it is tempting to think that they might still want a few more specialists in the side than it currently has. With Bairstow up to 4 it seems likely that Ben Stokes will bat 5, Buttler 6 and Moeen Ali 7. As a result of Adil Rashid keeping his place, Joe Root certainly has plenty of bowling options but I'm always of the opinion that if 5 bowlers can't get the job done then it's unlikely that a 6th will make much difference. Regardless of the variety in their attack, England must use the new ball better than they did at Trent Bridge and get stuck into India's top order early on.
India - Control the egos and win again
India will take confidence and momentum into this crunch match but what they must not do is lose sight of how they got themselves back into the series.The margins for error in any sport played at this level are so fine that even a minute drop off in performance can impact a result. Having lost the first 2 games, India simply can’t afford to have a couple of poor sessions in either of the remaining Test matches, particularly with the bat.
The thing that impressed me most about India’s batsmen in the last Test was their positivity. By that I don’t mean that they were trying to play extravagant shots and hit the English bowlers out of the game. They tried that at times in the first 2 games and it didn’t work. Instead what India did was to have a plan in regards both attack and defence. When you have a plan of how to play in certain conditions and against certain bowlers your movements become quicker, more definitive and your whole game shows a positive intent.
India's batsman need to ensure that the success of the 3rd Test does not feed their egos too much. Again their batsmen must look towards their leader and talisman Virat Kohli. In him we see one of the biggest egos in World cricket. A man who is supremely talented and not at all worried about who knows it. Coming into the series I wondered whether that ego would be his downfall, that he wouldn’t be able to play within himself against the moving ball. He has proved me wrong and if he continues in his rich vein of form then he may just lead his side to one of the greatest sporting comebacks ever. If a few of the batsmen can follow his lead and once again, pack away their egos and put substance over style then India could put some really big scores on the board in these last 2 games. With the bowlers having already shown they have no problem taking 20 wickets then England will have their work cut in trying to resist a resurgent Team India.
While India will not officially name an 11 until just before the toss, it is looking increasingly likely that they will go with the same team that won the 3rd Test after Ravi Ashwin was passed fit.
Who do you see as the potential match winners in this game? Who is going to come out on top? Let me know in the comments section
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