The wait is over! EPL 2018/19 is finally starting, and that means only one thing - it is time to pick our fantasy lineups.

There is only one clear-cut favorite this week - Liverpool. Other top clubs might experience problems: Manchester City pay a visit to Arsenal, Manchester United will be missing some key players with Jose Mourinho’s ambiguous statements not helping either, Tottenham’s just had a half of squad report to duty only recently, and Chelsea is undergoing a total overhaul under Maurizio Sarri. It will be unpredictable and interesting - just the way we like it.

Definite clean sheet

Top-5 clean sheet favorites this gameweek according to bookies.

Liverpool - 1,93

MU - 1,97

Chelsea - 2,15

Southampton - 2,19

Bournemouth - 2,56

Liverpool had the best home defence last season (xG allowed at home), and now they have Allison as well. Manuel Pellegrini is planning to turn West Ham into an ambitious attacking bunch, but the new squad needs time to gel, and pure individual skill might not be enough to get past Liverpool’s defenses

Only Manchester City conceded less last year than United. Statistically, though, Jose Mourinho’s men fared a lot worse. “Red Devils” were 5th for chances conceded, and their impressive number of clean sheets was possible only due to DeGea’s heroics. It’s hard to make any assumptions as to his form at the moment, he was probably one of the worst goaltenders of the WC-2018. Without his saves, the number of clean sheets will be significantly lower. Still, it is possible not to concede for United in gameweek one - Leicester have to fare without Mahrez now, and Vardy - top-6 menace-man - will not feature as well.

Antonio Conte’s legacy makes us consider Chelsea as a clean sheet provider this week. They failed to impress against City during the Community Shield, but they will be facing a totally different opponent - Huddersfield had the league’s worst attack in the second part of last season.

Southampton boasted league’s 3rd best defense in the last 11 games of the previous season. There were practically no changes in the team over the summer and they are hosting one of the league’s worst road attacks from last season. Southampton's chances for a clean sheet are looking rather good.

Only Stoke had a worse defensive record last season, so it’s surprising to see Eddie Howe’s team in the list. The explanation is simple, though - they are hosting relegation favorites - Cardiff.

Goals galore

5 clubs with the best bookies odds to score 3 goals or more.

Liverpool - 1,9

MU - 3,1

Manchester City - 2,19

Chelsea - 3,5

Bournemouth - 4,4

Liverpool’s extraordinary trio Salah-Firmino-Mane got a solid reinforcement in the middle of the park this summer in Fabinho and Keita. It prompts us to believe that “Reds” attacking prowess will reach new heights. Bookies are expecting a plethora of goals starting gameweek 1 which is logical. The only possible drawback is Manuel Pellegrini’s ability to create solid and hard to crack mid-table sides as was the case with Villarreal and Malaga. Although, the first gameweek might come too early to showcase such solidity.

MU will field a side without Lukaku, Pogba, and Matic. That means Mourinho must tinker with his front line, most likely putting all his faith into Alexis Sanchez's individual ability. The Chilean is a magnificent player, but he might not be up to the task of beating a solid Leicester side all by himself.

Pep Guardiola’s City loves to play Arsenal destroying their defense time after time (3 goals in each of their 3 last meetings). It has to be seen whether Unai Emery’s defensive system is more solid. Manchester City looks in good shape after a prolific display in the Community Shield - it will be a tough game for Arsenal.

Chelsea plays a weak side but looking so impotent in attack last week against Manchester City they dissolved our trust in their attack. Much will depend on whether Hazard plays or not. Sarri’s “automated” football system hinges on individual players capable of winning games alone. There is no one in the Chelsea squad capable of that apart from Hazard.

Eddie Howe’s jolly Bournemouth are always full of surprises. If the coach’s free-flowing attacking approach hadn’t changed over the summer we might be in for a goal feast when they play Cardiff. Injury-prone Stanislas is nursing yet another injury, but King, Wilson, and Fraser might just be enough.

Statistical cheaters

Here I will highlight players with peculiar and unexpected statistical and fantasy relevant anomalies. In the wake of gameweek 1 let us remember those surprising us last season.

  • Lukasz Fabianski (West Ham) made 142 saves - only Jack Butland had more (145), with Fabianski leading in clean sheets nonetheless (9 to 6).
  • Marcos Alonso (Chelsea) had 65 shots on goal - that is 30 more than any other defender.
  • Hector Bellerin (Arsenal) had best xG+xA numbers (7,29) amongst defenders but finished the season with a meager 2+3.
  • Mohamed Salah (Liverpool) had 43 big chances. His closest competitor - Harry Kane - has 38, no one else has more than 28 in total.
  • Richarlison (Everton) was ranked 5th in penalty area shots (74). Only one other midfielder had more - Salah.
  • Alexis Sanchez (MU) - the only representative of xG+xA top-10 who failed to convert those numbers into goals and assists (9+6 while having 20,93 xG+xA).
  • Charlie Austin (Southampton) had a big chance every 68,7 minutes - ranked 3rd among those having more than 10 clear cut chances. Trailing only Jesus (61,9) and Salah (67,9).

Differentials

Unusual picks capable of a surprise. With so many different daily fantasy sites to play at, I won’t list players prices. I’ll just try to list players who most likely will not be on many managers' watchlist.

  • Trent Alexander-Arnold (defender, Liverpool) - all sources are tipping him to start the game, so we are getting a package of best clean sheet odds this gameweek, set-pieces and a relatively small price compared to van Dijk and Robertson.
  • Will Hughes (midfielder, Watford) - he was somewhat a forgotten commodity last season because of an injury-plagued season, but he created problems for opponent’s defense every time he was on the pitch. He is now fully 100% fit.
  • Richarlison (midfielder, Everton) - nothing happened in Watford’s attack without him in times of Marco Silva. He persuaded to splash the cash on a player who had a horrendous second part of the season meaning he is counting on his heavy involvement at Goodison Park.
  • Charlie Austin (forward, Southampton) - bookies rate him in the top-5 to score this gameweek. He’s had a full pre-season, and when he is fit, goal scoring opportunities always fall his way.
  • Bernardo Silva (midfielder, Manchester City) - the Portuguese is in great form and is being praised by Pep Guardiola. He might not feature at the right wing, but in City’s attacking formation runs into the box from deep might be even more dangerous.

Captains

Captain obvious is Salah - no question about it. Liverpool has the highest chance of scoring plenty of goals, and Mo has the highest individual chance. Should I remind you that he has broken the FPL point record last year?

It gets more interesting with a differential captain. Joshua King looks the most intriguing option. We put our faith in Bournemouth attacking style of play, hoping Cardiff drops the ball from the very first game.

Captain selection for gameweek 1:

  • Captain Obvious — Mohamed Salah (Liverpool)
  • Differential Captain — Joshua King (Bournemouth)

Do not forget to register in our FPL Scorum-league with a 500 SCR prize pool. Code 123748-243799, registration form.