First gameweek failed to provide us with any wins against the odds, but it’s only the beginning.

Manchester City are monstrous favorites heading into gameweek 2 (versus Huddersfield at home) along with other solid favorites in Tottenham and Liverpool. But it is very hard to predict a winner in the other 7 games. A battle between reforming Chelsea and Arsenal sides stands out along with a clash of attacking-minded West Ham and Bournemouth.

Definite clean sheet

Top five teams with best clean sheet odds.

Manchester City — 1,54

Tottenham — 2,0

Manchester United — 2,15

Everton — 2,41

Liverpool — 2,45

Manchester City have been given one of the best EPL clean sheet odds ever as far as I can remember. It comes as no surprise as the champions come into this game in great form playing against the worst attack of last season. Huddersfield will be extremely lucky to score at the Etihad. If Mendy decides to play as a forward and neglects his defensive duties altogether, for example.

Tottenham conceded 9 shots and 2 big chances away at Newcastle, and their defensive display was far from ideal. Fulham failed to score in gameweek 1, but managed to trouble Crystal Palace more than on one occasion, firing 15 shots and almost getting a penalty. Mitrovic was at the heart of trouble and may get his chance while Tottenham are in search for their best game.

Last weekend Manchester United were solid at the back not allowing much in front of their goal (but conceding more shots) until top-6 menace - Jamie Vardy - entered the fray. Jose Mourinho’s side failed to impress, but it is his style of play to blame. It might just be enough against Brighton, who mustered just 6 shots on target and a miniscule amount of 0,31xG away at Watford.

It is a bit strange to see Marco Silva’s side among favorite but it is Southampton to blame. Firstly, they are one of relegation candidates. Secondly, they created next to nothing in the first 60 minutes against Burnley. To their credit, Elyounoussi and Ings created a plethora of chances in the final 30 minutes making me doubt Everton’s clean sheet chances even more.

Liverpool demonstrated an outstanding defensive showing in gameweek one allowing West Ham 5 shots on target, with only one of those posing any threat. A solid Crystal Palace side will no doubt cause The Reds more problems at home, providing Allison with a chance to shine, but a clean sheet looks likely nonetheless.

Goals galore

5 clubs with best bookies odds to score 3 or more goals.

Manchester City — 1,47

Tottenham — 2,05

Liverpool — 2,38

Chelsea — 3,38

West Ham — 4,05

Bookies do not believe Huddersfield stand any chance of leaving the Etihad Stadium without conceding a healthy bunch of goals. Even with Kun Aguero’s mediocre display Manchester City dispatched Arsenal which leaves us wondering what might happen if Aguero has a good day at home against one of the relegation favorites. Kevin De Bruyne's injury is unfortunate, but Bernardo Silva in his current form can carry the team in the absence of Belgian’s genius.

Harry Kane’s form is far from ideal, but Tottenham dished out two goals without their star man’s contribution. Things are looking up for Kane as he’s had a full week to get back to full fitness and his side plays a beatable opponent. Even if Harry fails again, Mauricio Pochettino has Dele Alli, whose runs into the box from deep may prove fatal for Fulham.

Liverpool accumulated 3,69xG (the next best managed 2,2) and set their eyes on the EPL’s goals scored record come the end of the season. Salah, Mane, Firmino trio is still lethal supported by Keita lurking outside the opponent’s box and Milner in striking form. Crystal Palace will struggle to contain them, especially with such an attacking-minded defender in van Anholt.

Arsenal’s brave display against City hinted at Unai Emery’s intent not to turn Arsenal into a pragmatic side. Bookies reacted - promising many Chelsea goals this weekend with Hazard set to make his first start of the season in Mauricio Sarri’s system. It is said that Eden will reach new heights as far as scoring and game influence is concerned.

Bournemouth retained their attacking style and allowed 1.56xG in their home game against Cardiff. That was too welcoming a display, and West Ham will be out to feed on their opponent’s defensive frailties. Arnautovic is ready, Anderson is almost there, Pellegrini needs a decisive home win - I smell trouble for Bournemouth.

Statistical Cheaters

Players with unexpected statistical performances from gameweek 1 making us consider them as fantasy picks.

  • Fabri (Fulham) made 8 saves - that is two more than any other goalkeeper
  • Ben Chilwell (Leicester) had 46 touches in opponent’s half - more than any other defender. And it happened in a away game at Old Trafford.
  • Jose Holebas (Watford) created 5 chances - other defenders have no more than 3 with only one other player creating as many chances - Christian Eriksen (Tottenham)
  • Mohamed Salah (Liverpool) - leads the league in xG+xA (1,57).
  • Alexandr Mitrovic (Fulham) - leads the league in shots (7). Only Wilson had 6, other forwards had no more than 4 each.
  • Callum Wilson (Bournemouth) had most penalty box touches (12).
  • Danny Ings (Southampton) played only 34 minutes but created 4 chances (twice as many as any other forward in the league) and had 3 shots.

Differentials

Unusual picks capable of a surprise in gameweek 2.

  • Ben Chilwell (defender, Leicester) - finished gameweek 1 with an unusually high average position for a defender. Was heavily involved in attack and may get a clean sheet and some attacking returns in a home game against Wolverhampton.
  • Demarai Gray (midfielder, Leicester) - a substitution for Riyad Mahrez finally started to play full 90 minutes. Led his team in penalty box touches (7), and is meant to transform those touches into a goal or an assist in gameweek 2. Is incredibly worth only 5,5 on FPL.
  • Felipe Anderson (midfielder, West Ham)- you may fail to see his potential because of Arnautovic. He failed to impress against Liverpool, but you can see his quality from a mile away.Played only 62 minutes at Anfield and will contribute to a demolition of frail Bournemouth’s defense.
  • Danny Ings (attacker, Southampton) - will be a sure starter after a brilliant performance at home, and will be facing a shaky defense. Motivated Ings is set to create a lot of problems for Everton's’ defenses and comes in cheap on many fantasy platforms (5,5 on FPL).
  • Callum Wilson (forward, Bournemouth) - you simply can’t ignore his stats in gameweek 1 (12 touches and 6 shots from inside the box, 3 big chances). Also, Ryan Fraser is more than capable of delivering an assist (2 big chances created).

Captains

Aguero is capable of scoring 3,4, or 5 goals on a given day. If don’t put an armband on Aguero, you risk being left behind in both daily and season-long games.

Marko Arnautovic is my differential captain. He has recovered from a minor niggle and West Ham have a good chance of scoring many goals against Bournemouth to put our trust in the dynamic Austrian.

Captain selection for gameweek 1:

  • Captain Obvious — Sergio Aguero (Manchester City)
  • Differential Captain — Marko Arnautovic (West Ham)

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