A goal feast at Stamford Bridge and solid Watford’s first real test.

Liverpool will take a last gasp of air before plunging into the depth of tough upcoming fixtures, Manchester United will be out to prove their thrashing by Tottenham was no more than a fluke, Spurs themselves will test high-flying Watford, Arsenal will measure their attacking prowess against a resolute Welsh side, Callum Wilson will put Chelsea’s new defensive model to test, and Manchester City will entertain Newcastle at home.

Definite clean sheet

Top five teams with best clean sheet odds.

Manchester City - 1,59

Everton - 1,91

Manchester United - 2,19

Liverpool - 2,22

Chelsea - 2,26

Manchester City have had only 1 clean sheet in their first 3 games, but it doesn’t mean Pep’s troops are struggling defensively. Only Liverpool conceded more shots in the box, so Newcastle will struggle in front of Ederson’s goal. Rafa’s team has failed to impress so far, they are in the bottom-5 for chances created.

There are only 3 other teams in the league who have conceded more xG than Everton, but they are still ranked 3rd to keep a clean sheet. Their opponent is to blame. Huddersfield had the worst attack in the second half of last season, and not much has changed so far. Huddersfield are dead-last in the xG metric (1,19), shots (16), and shots in the box (10). Even at home against a newly promoted Cardiff they managed to create a measly 0,24xG. Everton have a very good chance to keep a clean sheet against such an opponent even with 3 centre backs missing (Keane, Jagielka, Mina), and, most likely, their main defensive midfielder Guye.

Manchester United started the season slowly, but you should not be fooled by them being thrashed by Tottenham. They were superior during the first half failing to convert their chances. Spurs regrouped in half time, managed to turn the game around and showed remarkable conversion rate. United’s defense is prone to unexplainable individual errors and is heavily rotated. Sean Dyche’s Burnley played (and were eliminated) in Europa League on Thursday, and, having their squad stretched thin, may fail to go back to full fitness.

Liverpool is the only team to boast 3 clean sheets so far (only Cardiff have 2 clean sheets) and lead the league in all defensive parameters: 19 shots conceded (12 in the box), 1 big chance conceded, 1,7xG conceded. Leicester is a tough opponent, but they will playing without their top-6 sides specialist - Jamie Vardy - so Liverpool’s chances for a clean sheet look good.

Chelsea were horrendous at the back against Arsenal allowing their opponent to shoot from perfect positions, but were equally as good against two other opponents. Chelsea conceded 0,51xG and 12 shots across two away games against Huddersfield and Newcastle. These numbers do look impressive, but they are playing host to a gung-ho Bournemouth. They boast 4th best attack in the league led by an unstoppable Callum Wilson. A great test for Sarri’s defensive system.

Goals galore

5 clubs with best bookies odds to score 3 or more goals.

Manchester City — 1,57

Chelsea — 1,92

Liverpool — 2,62

Arsenal — 2,96

Tottenham - 2,96

Newcastle are testing their new defensive 5-4-1 formation, but it might not be enough to stop Manchester City. Pep Guardiola is likely to roll out his unique 3-3-4 formation which succeeds in stretching even the tightest defense. Rafa Benitez will need all his managerial skill and lots of luck to stop a well-oiled City machine at the Etihad.

Mauricio Sarri’s Chelsea plays attacking football, and Bournemouth is an ideal opponent for them. Eddie Howe’s team likes to attack themselves leaving tons of space behind. It is ideal for in-form Hazard’s creativity. We are in for a jolly game at Stamford Bridge with Chelsea scoring 3 goals or more very likely.

Liverpool not only has the best defense at the start of the season, but the best attack as well. Jurgen Klopp’s gang leads the league in xG (8,28) and shots in the box (38). Only Manchester City shoot more often, only Tottenham and Bournemouth have more chances created. Attacking might that led Liverpool to the Champions League Final and a top-3 finish last year is still here for all to see, the only thing that needs work is chance conversion. Leicester will be in for a tough game, but their defensive numbers are up to par, so we might not witness another thrashing.

From the get go Unai Emery showed more love for attack than defense. Arsenal do not think about defending, concentrating on attack, where their defensive backs play a substantial role. From a defensive perspective though it poses a few problems. Firstly, the Gunners have no clear-cut leader, many attacking players boast a good number of shots and chances created. Secondly, Cardiff know how to tighten up at the back, keeping their defensive numbers in check after promotion.

Watford had a fantastic start of the season, both statistically and gamewise. Javi Gracia’s team is yet to face a top-opponent, but dispatched Brighton, Burnley and Crystal Palace rather convincingly. Only Liverpool defends better than Watford, but Tottenham is a hard nut to crack. Harry Kane has said good-bye to his August curse and found great support in Lucas Moura. Spurs are on a roll looking for a win here, but goals might prove to be a problem.

Statistical cheater

Players with unexpected statistical performances from first 3 game weeks.

  • Petr Cech (Arsenal) makes an average of 6 saves per match.
  • League’s best assistants (4 each) are defenders - Benjamin Mendy (Manchester City) and Marcos Alonso (Chelsea). Only one attacker has as many as 3 assists - Callum Wilson (Bournemouth), all others have no more than 2 each.
  • Ryan Fraser (Bournemouth) created 5 big chances - that is at least 2 more than any other player in the league.
  • Mohamed Salah (Liverpool) created 12 chances - at least 3 more than any other player.
  • Callum Wilson (Bournemouth) - leads the league in big chances (6), shots in the box (13), is second in xG+xA (3,09) and penalty area touches (29).

Differentials

Unusual fantasy-picks who might surprise this week.

  • Glenn Murray (forward, Brighton) - Pascal Gross shines brighter than anyone in Brighton, but it is Glenn Murray who tickles fantasy manager’s fancy this season. Glenn’s numbers are far from impressive, but Brighton had a tough run of games. A 34-year old forward played 90 minutes in every game, scored 1 goal and a few more might be coming against Fulham.
  • Patrick van Aanholt (defender, Crystal Palace) - good clean sheet odds and fantastic numbers going forward (3rd in shots and penalty area touches) make him an excellent pick against a slow-starting Southampton.
  • Cenk Tosun (forward, Everton) - Walcott and Richarlison stole all the glances in Everton’s attack, but the Brazilian is set to miss week 4. His boldness in the opponent’s penalty area has limited Tosun’s chances, and it might be his turn to shine.
  • Felipe Anderson (midfielder, West Ham) - ends up playing as a second forward during a match, supports any counter-attack, creates a lot of chances for his teammates. 2nd in team for xG+xA (1,13) and is an ideal pick for those doubting Arnautovic.
  • Raul Jimenez (forward, Wolverhampton) - claimed a starting spot, played 3 full games and spearheads all Wolves’ attacks. 6 shots in box (nearest teammate has 3), 2 big chances and a solid xG+xA lead. West Ham are struggling defensively, look for Wolves to capitalize on that.

Captains

Captain Obvious pick is obvious yet again - Sergio Aguero. Manchester City face a bottom-half side and have best chances to score a plethora of goals. Aguero is hot with best bookies’ odds to find the net.

Captain Dreamy is on Theo Walcott’s arm this week. He is at 2+1 in 2 last games and is there to lead his team, at least until RIcharlison returns. Huddersfield had a dismal start of the season and they were terrible away at Etihad.

Captain selection for game week 4

  • Captain Obvious — Sergio Aguero (Manchester City)
  • Captain Dreamy — Theo Walcott (Everton)

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