Jürgen Klopp will guide Liverpool F.C. to their long-awaited title already this season.
Previous season
Liverpool finished 4th in 2017/18 EPL season 25 points away from champions Manchester City. But stats prove the gap between the teams' playing level was definitely not that huge as one may think because of the point difference. Liverpool did not lose a lot to Man City in all key attacking parameters. Remarkably, the Reds were much better than the rest of top-6.
Defending was not as brilliant as attack, but here one might still find evidence of future progress. For example, Liverpool is much closer to Man City in shots conceded and shots conceded from inside the box than to other top-6 teams, and it should be noted that Virgil van Dijk arrived only for the final 15 matchdays.
Liverpool was a top-2 team already last season. And now we have every reason to think that Reds will be even stronger.
The Squad
Current Liverpool squad is breathtaking. Usually there are enough highly-paid training cones who do not get into starting XI, do not make a difference as subs and have an impact only on payrolls. There are no such guys at Anfield. If someone like that shows up, he is immediately loaned like Divock Origi or Daniel Sturridge. Red's squad looks efficient, all players are important and will get good share of playing time.
In top games Liverpool can place a lineup worth €625 mln according to transfermarkt estimation: Alisson, Robertson, van Dijk, Matip, Alexander-Arnold, Fabinho, Naby Keïta, Wijnaldum, Mané, Firmino, Salah. At the moment Merseysiders have the 5th most expensive squad in the world behind only Barcelona, Man City, Chelsea and Real Madrid. Liverpool are now officially back to European elite. One can think that massive changes in midfield might affect Liverpool due to arrivals of Fabinho and Naby Keïta, but that was a well-taken decision. Both did not play in 2018 World Cup and participate in pre-season preparation from the very beginning. Thus Jürgen Klopp will have enough time to incorporate them into playing model.
The only competitor
Chelsea and Arsenal will have to rethink their performance and change the way they play. They need to adapt to new coaches which will take at least several months. They cannot be considered as real title contenders. Tottenham do not have the squad depth to play equally well in several competitions. Spurs' inactivity on summer transfer market shows the situation will hardly change.
MU's 2nd spot last season was a mix of coincidence and amazing David de Gea performances. José Mourinho has run out of ideas, Red Devils' matches do not impress both esthetically and statistically, and every visit to a top-club just highlights inability of this MU incarnation to fight for big success. Title-holders Manchester City are thus the only competitor for Liverpool.
Last season Liverpool beat citizens three times (including Champions League quarterfinal), and on the whole delivered a string of great performances against top-6 clubs. Stability in low-fi games is to be gained, and broadened and reinforced squad is to help with it.
No weak points
Liverpool used the summer brilliantly to cover all troublesome positions. Alisson will put away goalkeeping blunders. The Brazilian will for sure win a couple of top games by his wizardry. Attacking trident Mané — Firmino — Salah became the best in the Champions League, and the Egyptian turned into one of the potential Ballon d'Or contenders. All three are 26 years old and continue to improve. Last year performance is not the limit for them.
Reds' midfield seemed to be the weakest link, and it was not a surprise that two top signings were made to improve this line. Naby Keïta and Fabinho are well-established young stars with proven quality in top leagues. They are not unprepared players whose adaptation could be questioned.
Defence can be disputable, but there are arguments in its favour. First of all Robertson and Alexander-Arnold have made amazing progress. Secondly, van Dijk, a top centre-back, gives double solidness (just 10 goals conceded in the last 15 EPL games). Thirdly, stats show Liverpool was not that helpless in defence. Lack of quality is a mere stereotype created by memorable bloopers by Mignolet, Karius and Lovren.
There will not be psychological issues as well. Long Champions League campaign and participation in the final gave Liverpool's young stars priceless experience of such matches. We can assume that this team will not melt down during the title race.
What are the odds?
Bookmakers see Man City as definite favourites and give them a coefficient of about 1.67. Liverpool are the main opponents estimated at 5.0. But a title for the young team with a lot of quickly improving players which have mended all weak positions seems to be much higher than a 20% chance. Hmmm, it looks we found the most valuable midsummer bet.
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