Ok so I better come clean and admit that despite the cover picture, Billy Oddie will not be appearing as a guest contributor on this blog. Shame I know! For those of you less well versed in British television, Bill Oddie hosts a show called Spring Watch which from what I understand involves shoving cameras into the nests and burrows of unsuspecting woodland animals so that voyeuristic wildlife enthusiasts can get their kicks. It's a bit like the movie Sliver expect instead of seeing Sharon Stone undress you can watch a bunny rabbit taking a crap. Oddie is also a constant target for comic situations as seen here.
We see a lot of blogs on the platform about the biggest teams in Europe and most of them about sides challenging for honours in the English Premier League, Spanish La Liga, German Bundesliga and Italian Serie A. Before I go on to state that there are very few people writing about what is happening to teams at the other end of the tables or indeed in lower leagues, I'd like to give a shout out to @rameesa who writes very engaging articles on Norwich City and the English Championship (the 2nd tier of English football) - go check him out.
The truth is that at this time of year there is as much excitement to be had from following the sides scrapping tooth and nail to stay in the top flights as there is watching the big boys punch it out for top spot. There are only 3 teams that can realistically win the Premier League and Spurs probably have a 1/100 chance of doing it so the likelihood is that it'll be cut down to 2 teams pretty soon. By comparison, at the other end, there are 8 teams all looking nervously over their shoulder hoping not to drop through the trap door and into footballing oblivion.
Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace are the archetypal yo-yo team of the Premier League era. Their current spell of 5 years in the top flight is the longest of their 5 stints to date but was almost ended last year when a late-season comeback just saw them avoid dropping back into the Championship.
This year's performances have been mixed. A surprise victory at Manchester City followed by a few good results saw them catapult upwards and away from immediate danger and you would generally expect that they have enough about them to keep their heads above water. Looking at the fixtures that they have coming up, early March could well be a make or break period for them as they travel to relegation-threatened Burnley and then host their bitter rivals Brighton who trounced them in the reverse fixture earlier this season. Get results in those matches and there will be less pressure on them when they play the likes of Arsenal and City in April.
Key to their success this season and in the last few has been Wilfred Zaha, a Champions League player stuck at a relegation-threatened club. It'll be interesting to see if anyone ever takes a chance on paying the kind of money that it would take to see Palace hand over their prize possession and it also remains to be seen as to whether Zaha really has the hunger for another go at the big time after his early career failure at Man Utd. While he is essential for Palace, he and the club's dilemma reminds me a little of the situation with Hazard and Chelsea this season with the best player being forced to play out of position to accommodate deficiencies elsewhere in the 11. That kind of thinking always strikes me as a bit odd and Crystal Palace (like Chelsea) desperately need to recruit a centre-forward so as to allow Zaha to move into his preferred wide position. Still, if he remains fit Palace should win the games they need to stay up.
Brighton
Momentum is a word banded around wily nily at this time of the year and it would appear that Brighton have lost all of theirs! 4 losses in their last 5 matches, as well as defeats to other relegation candidates Burnley and Fulham, have not helped their cause. I was going to try and make some kind of pun about sandcastles melting into the sea until I remembered that Brighton is a stone covered beach.
Brighton have a solid looking defence and more than capable midfield that includes the likes of Gross, Pröpper and Stephens but where they really struggle is with creating and scoring goals. If anything they are better as a backs to the walls scrap it out kind of a team which is why you often see them putting in better performances against superior opposition than you do when they come up against equal or lesser teams where the onus is on them to attack.
March is going to be an absolutely crucial month for them as they play 4 games against relegation threaten rivals Huddersfield, Crystal Palace, Cardiff and Southampton. What would be a good return from those fixtures and how many points you think a side will need this season to stay up are the crucial questions? Whatever the answer, Brighton need to return to winning ways and quickly otherwise they are going to sink like a stone dropped off the end of Brighton Pier - see I knew there was a cheesy line in there somewhere!
Burnley
Burnley have transitioned from European qualification to relegation battle in the space of 12 months. It was never going to be easy for them to maintain the type of form that saw them clinch a Europa League spot this year and their task hasn't been made easier by having their relatively small squad stretched by those mid-week fixtures. Still, if you're a Burnley supporter you would be disappointed with the season to date.
Perhaps the biggest issue that Burnley have had this year is their leaky defence with just the bottom 2 having a worse defensive record than the Clarets. In previous seasons they've been very well organised and defensively disciplined with the fierce-looking Sean Dyche barking orders at them from the sideline in a voice that sounds like it has more gravel in it than an abandoned quarry.
At the turn of the calendar year, I personally thought that Burnley were going down but they have had a mini-revival and are now unbeaten in their last 5 games. I hope to see that form at least temporarily evaporate when they play Spurs next weekend, a fixture that they follow up with a couple of big games against Crystal Palace and Newcastle. They'll want to make hay while the sun shines because their run in involves fixtures against City, Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal.
Newcastle
Remember when Kevin Keegan's Newcastle side used to be everyone's 2nd favourite team? Those were the days of flair players like Ginola, Asprilla and Albert in what was an iconic team for its generation. Things seem to have gone full circle in the North East as Newcastle are now a side that doctors are recommending patients with sleeping disorders to buy a season ticket for. Rafa Benitez's defence-minded tactics aren't helped by the fact that he is woefully underfunded by owner Mike Ashley who is one of the biggest turds in football which therefore means he must be quite high in the worldwide league table of turds.
They did at least bring in some reinforcements during the January transfer window which included breaking their transfer record to sign Miguel Almiron who they hope will hit the ground running and pull them clear of the bottom 3.
Fixture-wise Newcastle very much have their destiny in their own hands with their next 2 games in the EPL presenting them with a fantastic opportunity to move towards the top of this little mini-league of relegation-threatened teams. Those games are both at home, firstly to bottom side Huddersfield and then Burnley. Newcastle supporters are famously fickle but if the side can get behind them for these two crunch encounters then you'd have thought that the wind in their sails that 6 points would provide should be enough to steer them clear of danger for another season.
Cardiff
Would it be unfair to say that the death of Emiliano Sala has given the Welsh club a new found focus in their play? 2 wins on the bounce has seen the promoted side move clear of relegation and with back to back home games to come they have the chance to further secure their position in the top flight. While the death of Sala is undoubtedly a sad moment for his friends and family, it has given former Bristol City (my 2nd team) forward Bobby Reid a sustained chance in the first team and he has not disappointed. I have seen him play live several times over the past few years and he has always been the best player on the pitch. Whether Cardiff survive or not, I hope that Reid maintains his rightful place as a Premier League player.
Perhaps the most debatable x-factor that Cardiff posses is their enigmatic and evergreen manager Neil Warnock. I've not met many supporters of any club who actually like the man but you have to admit that he knows how to get the job done when it comes to promotion having achieved the feat a record 8 times with various clubs around the country. The big question now is whether he can keep a club in the Premier League! I'm sure he'll be as motivated as anyone to prove the doubters wrong.
Southampton
Imagine if you had a time machine and could put together an all-time best 11 of former Southampton Premier League players all playing at their peak. Not only would that be some team but it's likely they'd be challenging in the top 3rd of the table as opposed to near the bottom. For me, the question isn't if Southampton will be relegated it is when. Their slide down the table in recent years reminds me a bit of Swansea in their last couple of seasons in the Premier League, gradually selling off their best players and replacing them with inferior quality. Eventually, that is going to lead to relegation.
Mark Hughes spell in charge was about as poor a managerial performance as I have ever seen in the Premier League and I can't quite believe that it took the Southampton board so long to give the man the boot. Ralph Hasenhuttl's appointment has seen Southampton undergo a brief revival that was only ended by Cardiff's late winner last weekend. That defeat pushed The Saints back into the bottom 3 and with games against Arsenal, United and Spurs to come over the next few weeks then Southampton may well struggle to get out of the relegation until April time if at all.
On paper at least you would have thought that Southampton have the personnel to string a series of results together. Nathan Redmond and James Ward-Prowse are 2 of the form players in the league and if they can get one or both of Charlie Austin and Danny Ings fit then goals shouldn't be a problem.
Fulham
Given the amount of money that they spent in the summer I think it's fair to say that Fulham have been a bit of a let down to date. They came up to the Premier League last year on the back of some attack-minded, flowing football but unfortunately, their soft-centre has become somewhat exposed at the highest level. They seem to have a particular penchant for conceding sloppy goals particularly late on in games which has cost them crucial points and morale-boosting results.
It genuiely looked like the end for the West London side when they found themselves 2-0 down to Brighton at home towards the end of January but they managed to storm back to win the match 4-2. Results thereafter have not been what they would have hoped and they sit 8 points off safety knowing that they must start winning soon to avoid being cut adrift entirely.
Home form is often very important for a side battling relegation and Fulham will need to find some fast as their next 3 visitors to The Cottage are Chelsea, Liverpool and Man City. The only ray of hope you can see for Fulham is that in Alexander Mitrovic they have one of the more effective centre-forwards in the lower half of the league. They need him to add to his tally of 10 goals and find a little more consistency at the back if they are to have any hope of avoiding an immediate and costly return to the Championship.
Huddersfield
I think you'd be either a very brave or very stupid man to bet on Huddersfield being a Premier League team next year. They sit 14 points from safety and have begun to play like a team that is already relegated. You might expect to see a side that still had hopes of maintaining their top-flight status go out and try and sign a couple of players who could make an impact in closing months of the season. Instead, Huddersfield were scooping up young talent from League 1 which looks like a sure sign they don't intend to place too heavy a financial burden upon themselves when they inevitably take the drop at some point in April.
Odds for Relegation
Most bookies have essentially stopped taking bets on Huddersfield so we'll exclude them but the best of the rest are as follows (all odds from oddschecker)
- Fulham 1.15
- Cardiff 2.06
- Burnley 4.5
- Southampton 5.75
- Newcastle 9.04
- Brighton 9.04
- Crystal Palace 21
1 league win in 11 matches makes me think that those odds on Brighton are a little long. They have a series of 6 pointers to come in March alongside a match against Chelsea that has been postponed due their involvement in the FA Cup (Brighton play Derby today). Come the end of next month they are either likely to be cruising to safety or wallowing in the bottom 3. Equally, Southampton's difficult run of fixtures in the coming weeks could well leave them in a situation where they are needing to make up ground in the last 6-8 matches. At 5.75 their odds to be relegated also look pretty decent.
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