New Year's Day is just around the corner, which means resolutions for the new year, and of course, the "grandaddy of them all" - the Rose Bowl. The first Rose Bowl of the new decade will feature the traditional Pac-12 / Big TEN matchup, with Pac-12 Champion Oregon taking on Big TEN runner-up Wisconsin, in what should be an excellent game. Both teams suffered surprising setbacks at different points in the season, and both also had exceptional standout performances as well.
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If not for a late season loss at Arizona State, Oregon very well could have been the fourth and final representative in the CFP instead of Oklahoma. If the Badgers could have duplicated their first-half success in the Big TEN Title game against Ohio State instead of succumbing to the Buckeyes in the second half, they could have an even made a claim for a spot in the playoff. Instead, both will meet one-another in the next best Bowl matchup outside of the CFP Semifinals (of course the Peach Bowl wasn't much of a game, but the Fiesta Bowl was a classic).
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To start out the 2020 Rose Bowl preview, let's first take a look at the Pac-12 Champion Ducks ' 2019 team profile:
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5) OREGON DUCKS (11-2)
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[National ranking in ( ) next to respective category]
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Points Scored Per Game: 35.9 (15th)
Points Allowed Per Game: 15.7 (8th)
Total Yards Per Game (Offense): 450.7 (25th)
Total Yards Per Game (Defense): 329.6 (23rd)
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Key Wins:
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vs Cal (7-5) W 17-7
@ Washington (8-5) W 35-31
@ USC (8-5) W 56-24
vs Utah (11-2) W 37-15*
*- Pac-12 Title game
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Key Losses:
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vs Auburn (9-3) L 21-27*
@ Arizona State (7-5) L 28-31
*- Game played on neutral field
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Stat Leaders:
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QB Justin Herbert SR
272/408 - 3,333 pass yds, 32TD, 5INT
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HB CJ Verdell SO
180/1,171 rush yds, 8TD, 6.5ypc
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WR Johnny Johnson III JR
55/818 rec yds, 7TD, 14.9ypr
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LB Troy Dye SR
75 total tkls
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DE Kayvon Thibodeaux FR
9.0 sacks
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The Ducks are led by prolific QB Justin Herbert, who has racked up over 10,000 yards passing and 95 TDs through the air in his career. Even with the arm of Herbert at their disposal, Oregon proved to be just as potent running the football. HB CJ Verdell ran wild in the Pac-12 Title game against a stout Utah defense, and finished the season with over 1,100 yards and 8 scores on the ground. Travis Dye added another 655 yards, and Cyrus Habibi-Liikio notched 10 rushing TDs for an offense that averaged 185.8 yards per game on the ground & 5.1 yards per rush on the season.
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The defense was much-improved as well, as they ended up limiting opponents to just 15.7 points per game - good for 8th in the country. In fact, they managed to hold the opposition to 10 points or less in 7 of their 13 games. The Ducks did an excellent job of holding Utah in-check in the Pac-12 Title game as well, shutting out the Utes in the first half, & only allowing 15 3rd quarter points.
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The speed & athleticism are there to potentially cause some problems for the Badgers. Wisconsin handled pretty much everyone except for Ohio State, who was easily the "fastest" team they played all season long. While the Ducks certainly are stacked with talent at the skill positions, they could struggle with Wisconsin's physicality. The Badgers will pound it at you for 4 quarters, and they know how to get after the quarterback on defense. It will be very similar to the type of game Oregon started out the season with in their opener against a very good Auburn D. So, will the Ducks speed & athleticism cause headaches for the Badgers or will Wisconsin's physicality wear them down in the second half?
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Before we answer that question & more, let's first take a look at the Big TEN runners-up Wisconsin Badgers 2019 team profile:
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8) WISCONSIN BADGERS (10-3)
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Points Scored Per Game: 34.6 (22nd)
Points Allowed Per Game: 16.1 (10th)
Total Yards Per Game (Offense): 441.8 (35th)
Total Yards Per Game (Defense): 293.5 (8th)
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Key Wins:
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vs Michigan (9-3) W 35-14
vs Michigan State (7-6) W 38-0
vs Iowa (10-3) W 24-22
@ Minnesota (10-2) W 38-17
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Key Losses:
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@ Illinois (6-6) L 23-24
@ Ohio State (13-1) L 7-38
vs Ohio State (13-1) L 21-34*
*- Big TEN Title game
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Stat Leaders:
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QB Jack Coan JR
213/304 - 2,539 pass yds, 17TD, 4INT
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HB Jonathan Taylor JR
299/1,909 rush yds, 21TD, 6.4ypc
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WR Quintez Cephus JR
52/842 rec yds, 6TD, 16.2ypr
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LB Jack Sanborn SO
72 total tkls
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LB Chris Orr SR
72 total tkls
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LB Zack Baun SR
12.5 sacks
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LB Chris Orr SR
11.5 sacks
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It's certainly not a secret what Wisconsin is going to try to do. They are going to pound away for four quarters, behind a big, talented, physical o-line, and feed prolific HB & 2-time Doak Walker Award winner Jonathan Taylor. Taylor has piled up more career rushing yards through his first three years than any other player in the history of college football. As if trying to bundle up Taylor wasn't enough, they have a talented WR in Quintez Cephus, and a big, physical TE that can cause headaches in the passing game in Jake Ferguson.
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Defensively, the Badgers did an excellent job of shutting down opposing offenses for much of the season. The one team they really struggled with was Ohio State (and so did everyone else who played the Buckeyes this year). LBs Chris Orr and Zack Baun were especially disruptive as the two combined for a whopping 24 sacks on the season. They force opposing QBs into quick decisions, and are built to contain the run and get after the QB, thanks to their trio of talented LBs - Jack Sanborn may not have the sack numbers of Orr & Baun, but he's tied for the team-lead in tackles and is a vital part of slowing down the opponents' rushing attack.
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They could struggle with the Ducks' quickness and overall team speed. That being said, this is a different type of defense than the one that Oregon shredded in the Pac-12 Title game. Utah came in with an elite top-5 defense, but weren't particularly great at LB, and it showed as CJ Verdell & co. ran wild. So, will the Badgers be able to stymie the Ducks' very solid, balanced, offensive attack, or will they get exposed by Oregon's perceived advantage in speed & athleticism?
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PREDICTION:
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By all accounts this should be an exceptional matchup. Wisconsin scores just under 35 points per game while surrendering 16 per game. Oregon scores about 36 per game and gives up just under 16. Both teams are virtually identical in what they score & allow per game, so something has to give in this one. Oregon is much more physical than in year's past - on both sides of the ball and that bodes well for the Ducks ahead of this matchup.
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Wisconsin will come-in the more battle-tested team - yes, Oregon did play Auburn & Utah, but aside from those two the next best competition they faced finished just 8-5. The Badgers played Ohio State twice of course, pounded 9-3 Michigan, blew out 10-2 Minnesota on the road, and also downed a very good 10-3 Iowa team. That bodes well for Wisconsin ahead of this showdown between pretty similar teams.
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Looking at the 10 best players in this game - regardless of position or team, I think it's pretty easy to argue that it's about an even split with 5 being on each team, so no team has a distinct advantage in terms of the very best players that will be on the field tomorrow. So, what will be the difference? Wisconsin is built for a 4 quarter physical, drag-em out game, and will need to get off to a fast start just like they did in the Big TEN Title game and avoid the dismal start that Utah turned in against the Ducks in the Pac-12 Title game. In a true pick-em game, the Badgers do just enough, and grind one out down the stretch in the 4th quarter of a back-and-forth affair. Get ready this should be a dandy!
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WISCONSIN 28 OREGON 25
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As always, I appreciate the support & would love to get your pick in the comments section below - who do you have - the Ducks or the Badgers? A very Happy New Year - let's make 2020 the best year yet! Enjoy the Rose Bowl and all of your New Year's festivities!
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