Welcome back all! Each day that passes seems to bring us results pertinent to the ever-changing NCAA basketball "bubble". Last night was no different as there were several teams in action looking to strengthen their respective cases for an at-large bid. One team in particular had a big opportunity to pickup a marque win on their home floor and they did not disappoint.
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The Arizona State Sun Devils came into last night's game against 14th ranked Oregon very much right on the "bubble". While dancing the cut-line in most projections going into last night's game, they picked up a noteworthy 77-72 victory over the Ducks. The big W gave them a significant boost in the metrics as well. So, after last night's key victory, where do the Sun Devils stand in terms of landing an at-large bid? Let's take a closer looks at ASU's resume.
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The Sun Devils received a nice bump in the NET, rising 7 spots to #40 after last night's W. They also jumped 4 spots and now own a very solid #21 ranking in the RPI. Their strength of schedule also received a tick upward to #42. All of those metrics would traditionally point to a tournament team, so what is holding this team back?
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The nonconference slate was rather non-spectacular with a key neutral floor win over a St. John's team that has regressed as the season has went on, and their lone noteworthy road win was at Princeton - who was 0-5 at the team, but have rebounded to get to 11-10 at the moment. Included in the nonconference rundown were losses to quality teams in Creighton and Virginia. Not the best, but also not the worst when it comes to a non-conference resume.
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They do own a handful of key victories, highlighted by home victories over Arizona and USC, to go along with last night's home win over Oregon. They do have a road win over fellow "bubblish" foe Stanford, but the Cardinal would most likely be out of the tournament as of now, with plenty of work to do, leaving the Sun Devils without a road victory over a projected tournament team at the moment.
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Then there are the two ugly marks on their resume - a 96-56, 40-point blowout loss on a neutral floor to Saint Mary's, and a 75-47 beatdown they suffered at rival Arizona at the beginning of Pac-12 league play. Usually, tournament-level teams don't have those level of blowout losses on their resume, but the 2019-20 college hoops season has been anything but normal.
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It all adds up to a very intriguing case for the Sun Devils. After last night's big win, however, there is enough good, and strong enough metrics to have ASU in the tournament as of the moment. The closing slate is very manageable as well, but they will need to avoid any setbacks to Oregon State, Washington, and Washington State in their 3 remaining home games. None of those games will have much of an impact in terms of a resume boost, but a loss could be detrimental. They do have an opportunity to pickup that big "marque" road victory when they visit USC on Feb 29th.
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As of today, here is a quick look at the Sun Devils' resume:
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ARIZONA STATE (9-4 Pac-12, 18-8 overall)
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NET: 40 (^7)
RPI: 21 (^4)
SOS: 42 (^3)
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Winners of 6 straight & 8 of 9 overall.
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Key Victories:
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vs 14) Oregon (20-7) W 77-72
@ Stanford (17-9) W 74-69
vs USC (19-8) W 66-64
vs 24) Arizona (19-7) W 66-65
vs St. John's (14-12) W 80-67*
@ Princeton (11-10) W 67-65
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Key Losses:
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@ 18) Colorado (21-6) L 71-81
@ 24) Arizona (19-7) L 47-75
vs Saint Mary's (22-6) L 56-96
vs 15) Creighton (21-6) L 60-67*
vs Virginia (18-7) L 45-48*
@ 14) Oregon (20-7) L 69-78
vs 18) Colorado (21-6) L 61-68
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As always, I appreciate the support, and would love to get your thoughts in the comments section below - where do have Arizona State? Are the Sun Devils in or out?
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Be sure to checkout today's video, giving you a complete breakdown of ASU's resume:
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https://youtu.be/p4W9yxXofiw
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Chris Elgersma
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You can find me on IG & YouTube @sportsguychris
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I'll be providing weekly top 25 rankings, NCAA tournament projections, and "bubble" assessments as we get closer to the Big Dance. Be sure to check back for plenty of college hoops coverage & everything else in the world of sports!
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