NCAA Tournament Projections - The "Blind Resume" Test
Happy Thursday everyone! Wow, we haven't even reached the weekend yet and already there has been all kinds of movement and key outcomes at the backend of the bracket. Last night brought with it several surprises, and has really turned the 11-12 seeds into a murky mess. The biggest takeaway from last night? Get ready, strap on your seatbelt and enjoy the ride - because the backend of the projected bracket is still wide-open at the moment.
The only team that really did themselves any favors last night were the Seton Hall Pirates. Talk about a ferocious rally. The Pirates trailed by 13 in the second half to Marquette, who was attempting to end a little losing skid of their own. The Hall never quit though, and put a ferocious run together to close out the game, outscoring the Golden Eagles 18-0 to end it, on their way to a massive 9-point victory. Non-conference wins over Kentucky (on a neutral floor) and at Maryland are still providing a major boost to the Pirates' resume, and now with home wins over St. John's and Marquette within Big East play, the Hall has seemingly played their way into safer territory. While Joe Lunardi is still projecting Seton Hall as a 12 at the moment, I believe the victory last night puts them back firmly into 10-seed territory. The "bubble" is weak this year, and you are hard-pressed to find another resume out there in bubble-land that consists of the three "marque" wins that Seton Hall has managed to put together. That being said, a loss to Villanova at home to close out the season, and then a stumble to most-likely opponent Xavier in the Big East Conf Tournament could still make things a bit dicey for the Pirates come Selection Sunday. That would leave them just 17-14 - better win at least one more to be safe.
Seton Hall's victory aside, it was an otherwise miserable night for the "Bubble". N.C. State found themselves in safe territory in most projected brackets heading into yesterday. While the Wolfpack get the benefit of playing in the difficult ACC, they haven't been able to produce many "quality" wins on the season. The new "NET" ratings love the Wolfpack though, as they currently reside at #31. They have the biggest differential of any team I've come across this season in terms of what the new "NET" metrics thinks of N.C. State, versus what the old "RPI" says. According to the RPI, the Wolfpack are just #92. To put that in perspective, that is well out of range for usual at-large teams to receive a bid. So, will the committee scrap the RPI completely? How much weight will they place in the "NET" ratings system? What they do with N.C. State will be telling. That being said, the Wolfpack could pickup a couple more victories and render the conversation mute, but as it stands now, they better not lose at Boston College to finish the season. As it was going into last night, all the Wolfpack needed to do was most likely avoid a bad loss to close the season and they could coast into the field. Losing at home to cellar-dweller Georgia Tech in a must-win game? Exactly the opposite of what they needed to do.
N.C. State wasn't the only "bubble" team to suffer a bad loss last night. Ohio State went on the road and were routed by Northwestern 68-50 in a game that could have helped ease the pain from the Buckeyes' embarrassment over the weekend at Purdue. Looking around the projected brackets out there, most pundits still feel OSU has done enough to stay in the field, but the loss last night dropped them out of my projected bracket for the time being. I've been saying all week that the Buckeyes' need to close the season with a win at home against Wisconsin this weekend, and after another egg-laying last night, that statement is especially true for OSU going forward.
So, with last night's results in the books, what does it mean for the backend of the bracket? Well, we are now left with an underwhelming group to choose from for the last few at-large bids. This is where things really get interesting … and a lot of fun. It's the perfect storm at the moment to play a fun game I like to call "the blind resume test". I'm going to take a handful of current "bubble" teams, provide their current records, NET & RPI rankings, and resume highlights to this point (key wins & key losses), just without providing the names that are spelled out across the jerseys. Just looking at the resumes, take your pick between the teams. At the bottom of the page, I'll provide the answers to which resume belonged to which team. You might be "surprised" to see who you ended up picking in the end. Without further ado, here we go:
TEAM A
(8-10, 18-11) NET 43 RPI 51
Key Wins: @ Indiana; vs Iowa; vs Minnesota; @ Cincinnati
Key Losses: @ Rutgers; vs Illinois
vs
TEAM B
(13-5, 24-6) NET 44 RPI 55
Key Wins: @ Villanova; vs UNC-Greensboro; UL-Chicago
Key Losses: @ LSU
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TEAM C
(8-9, 20-10) NET 31 RPI 92
Key Wins: vs Syracuse; vs Clemson; vs Auburn
Key Losses: vs Georgia Tech; @ Wake Forest
vs
TEAM D
(11-5, 21-8) NET 57 RPI 35
Key Wins: @ Davidson; vs Houston
Key Losses: @ Tulsa; vs Penn
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TEAM E
(7-9, 17-12) NET 39 RPI 62
Key Wins: vs Virginia Tech; vs Lipscomb
Key Losses: Creighton; Nebraska; Miami FL
vs
TEAM F
(16-2, 25-4) NET 45 RPI 43
Key Wins: @ Murray State; @ UCLA; @ Lipscomb; vs Lipscomb
Key Losses: @ Green Bay; @ Purdue; vs Jacksonville St.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ready to find out who represents each of these mystery resumes? You might be surprised to find that…
TEAM A= Ohio State
TEAM B= Furman
TEAM C= N.C. State
TEAM D= Temple
TEAM E= Clemson
TEAM F= Belmont
Hope you enjoyed playing along with "the blind resume test" as we edge ever -closer to the NCAA tournament! Were you surprised with who picked out of that bunch? Would rather see mid-majors like Belmont & Furman in the field, or middling "power" conference teams like Clemson, Ohio State, or N.C. State? Who is more deserving? Those are the questions of course facing the selection committee as we move forward. If there's one thing we know about this year's "bubble", it's the uncertainty surrounding it. In most seasons, we have a fairly good idea who will emerge, but this year is anything but normal for the "bubble". As always, I would love to hear your thoughts below, thank you for your support, enjoy all of the big games ahead of us tonight, and be sure to check-back for continual coverage leading up to the NCAA tournament! Happy reading & writing!
Comments