#5 UTAH (11-1) vs #13 OREGON (10-2)
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Utah Utes
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CFP (#5)
AP (#5)
Coaches (#5)
Total Offense: (25th)
Total Defense: (5th)
Best Win: @ Washington (7-5) W 33-28 (or @ BYU 7-5 W 30-12 - take your pick)
Losses: @ USC (8-4) L 23-30
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Oregon Ducks
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CFP (#14)
AP (#13)
Coaches (#13)
Total Offense: (27th)
Total Defense: (24th)
Best Win: @ USC (8-4) W 56-24
Losses: vs Auburn (9-3) L 21-27, @ Arizona State (7-5) L 28-31
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The Pac-12 Title game features a pair of teams trending in opposite directions as of late. The Utes have been steadily improving all season long and seem to have hit their stride recently. As they got into the heart of conference play, the defense has really become one of the best units in the country. They've held opponents to single digits in 5 of their last 7 games (all Pac-12 games), and have only surrendered 9.0 points per game during that span.
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Utah has shown that it's not all defense with the Utes this year. They currently rank 6th & 5th, respectively, according to FEI and ESPN.com in total team efficiency metrics. Offensively, they are 8th in the country in team efficiency, just behind Wisconsin according to ESPN.com.
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QB Tyler Huntley has been incredibly efficient, completing a sizzling 75.5% of his passes, for 2773 yards with 16 TD passes to only 2 INTs. He's added another 255 yards and 5 scores on the ground, as the Senior has took the Utes' offensive attack to new levels. HB Zack Moss is the program's all-time leading rusher (close to 4,000 rushing yards), including 1246 yards and 15 scores this year. Moss has been doing it for some time, he's played in 43 games and averaged an impressive 5.8 yards per carry for his Utah career. He's also a talented pass-catcher, racking up 60 receptions for another 614 yards receiving in his career.
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The Utes like to get their run-game going, and then keep opposing defenses off-balance by spreading the ball around - 10 different players have caught between 10-28 passes on the season. With that kind of balance, they have become increasingly difficult to gameplan for as evidenced by the 35.6 points they average per contest.
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Meanwhile, the Oregon Ducks were cruising along, seemingly heading toward a Pac-12 Title game showdown where a pair of 1-loss teams would duke it out for a playoff spot. Then the Ducks laid an egg two weeks ago however, and dropped a 31-28 contest at Sun Devil Stadium to an Arizona State squad that finished 7-5. While the loss ended the Ducks' playoff hopes, they still have an opportunity to win a Pac-12 Championship.
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Before the Arizona State game, the Ducks had looked polished in their previous two games - a 34-6 victory over Arizona and an impressive 56-24 pasting of USC in the LA Coliseum. The last two games? Not so much. They could only muster 7 points through the first 3 quarters against ASU, who ranks just 65th nationally in total defense. Last week against rival Oregon State it was even worse. While the Ducks won the Civil War 24-10, the fact that they could only muster 24 points and barely 350 yards of total offense against the nation's 105th ranked defense is troubling.
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That being said, Oregon has plenty of weapons at their disposal, led by likely 1st round Draft pick Justin Herbert at QB. Herbert will almost certainly be a first rounder in this spring's NFL Draft, and could go in the top 10. He's had another stellar season, throwing for 3140 yards, while completing 67.5% of his passes with 31 TDs and only 5 INTs. Over the past two seasons he's thrown for just a hair under 6300 yards with 60 TDs and only 13 INTs. He's experienced, and should be poised enough to cause problems for Utah's elite defense. Of course, the Ducks have yet to play a unit as formidable as the Utes' elite D. CJ Verdell (963 yards, 5 TDs) and Travis Dye (642 yards) have proved to be more- than-capable rushers, and lead a surprising running game that averages over 180 yards per game.
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The Ducks' defense might be one of the most underrated in the country. They've actually held opponents to 10 points or less in 7 of their 12 games this season. The problem is those other 5 games where they've allowed a whopping 27.8 points per contest. So the question is, which version of the Ducks' improved defense will we see on Saturday? That very well could be one of the biggest factors in who comes away with the Pac-12 crown.
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PREDICTION
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While the two defenses could play a major role in the outcome of this one, I don't envision a 10-3 slugfest like last year's game where Washington edged Utah. The Utes will surely have last year's shortcomings in this game in mind when they take the field this time around. This year's version will come in seasoned & battle-tested, where as a year ago, the Huskies wore that hat.
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Look for the defenses to play a role in this one - both have been solid & efficient for the most part in 2019. Oregon's team speed could cause problems for the Utes as well. Remember, the "fastest" team they've probably played this year was USC, and the Utes lost that game while giving up a season-high 30 points to the Trojans. Oregon demolished that same USC squad 56-24.
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That being said, this year's Utah team is one of the best in the country on both sides of the ball. The time-worn formula of playing hard-nosed defense by controlling the line of scrimmage, running effectively with an efficient passing game, while churning out the clock rings true once again in this one. I believe Oregon makes it a heck of a game, but Utah's experience comes through and the defense makes one or two more plays down the stretch and the Utes prevail, and in all likelihood punch their ticket to the CFP.
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Final Score:
UTAH 27 OREGON 24
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