Welcome back all! The penultimate set of CFP rankings were released Tuesday evening, and the Buckeyes remained at the #1 spot. They appear to be a lock for the CFP even if they were to stumble against Wisconsin in Saturday's Big TEN Title game. The overall resume & efficiency metrics certainly points to a team that deserves a spot in the Final Four. However, what if the Buckeyes were to stumble? Will they still get in to the playoff?
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Year 1 of the Ryan Day era has been a smashing success, culminating with last week's demolition of rival Michigan on the Wolverines' home field. Transfer QB Justin Fields has been down right spectacular, HB J.K. Dobbins is right there with Wisconsin's Jonathan Taylor & Oklahoma State's Chuba Hubbard as one of the best backs in the country, and Chase Young has been perhaps the most dominant defensive player in the country. All that adds up to one of the best teams in the nation. So, just how dominant have the Buckeyes been? Let's take a look at Ohio State's team profile:
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OHIO STATE (12-0 Overall, 9-0 Big TEN)
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Rankings:
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CFP (#1)
AP (#2)
Coaches (#2)
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Schedule
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vs Florida Atlantic (9-3) W 45-21
vs Cincinnati (10-2) W 42-0
@ Indiana (8-4) W 51-10
vs Miami (OH) (7-5) W 76-5
@ Nebraska (5-7) W 48-7
vs Michigan State (6-6) W 34-10
@ Northwestern (3-9) W 52-3
vs Wisconsin (10-2) W 38-7
vs Maryland (3-9) W 73-14
@ Rutgers (2-10) W 56-21
vs Penn State (10-2) W 28-17
@ Michigan (9-3) W 56-27
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Points Scored Per Game: (49.9)
Points Allowed Per Game: (11.8)
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Team Statistics (Current National Rank):
Total Offense: (5th)
Total Defense: (1st)
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Efficiency Ratings:
FEI (Fremeau Efficiency Index): (1st)
TE (ESPN.com Team Efficiency): (1st)
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A look at the Buckeyes' impressive team profile shows one of the nation's most dominant teams in 2019. They average just under 50 points per game, and have topped that mark in 6 of their 12 games, including 3 of the last 4. They are the most efficient team in college football according to both FEI & TE. Oh and they own the #1 defense in the country - surrendering just 232.3 yards per game. Of course those numbers certainly got a boost from playing offensively challenged teams in Northwestern, Maryland, and Rutgers. Nonetheless, the overall profile is extremely impressive.
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That is even more true when you break down the Buckeyes' schedule. At first glance & especially earlier in the season, their non-conference schedule looked extremely week. However, when you take into account that all three non-conference opponents will be playing in conference title games this weekend, they have actually played a quality slate. Florida Atlantic may not impose fear in anyone, but they finished up 9-3 and will play for the Conference USA Title for the second consecutive year. Cincinnati is in the American Athletic Title game and currently ranked #20 by the CFP committee. Miami (OH) is the weakest of the group, but still managed to get into the MAC Title game at 7-5.
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So what does it all add up to for the Buckeyes? Outside of LSU, OSU can certainly boast the most impressive resume out there. The metrics speak for themselves and they've won all 12 of their games by an insane average margin of 38.1 points per game. With the committee placing OSU at #1 instead of 2, they've virtually assured the Buckeyes a spot in the final four in my opinion. Even if they were to get a chink in the armor against Wisconsin this Saturday, they already defeated the Badgers once this year. Furthermore, at 10-2 & currently ranked 8th by the committee, an upset loss to UW certainly would not be a "bad" loss. The Buckeyes should be in no matter the outcome this weekend.
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